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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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Man, reading this forum leading up to an event is peak happiness haha

 

I'm sorry if this is basic, but when it comes to snow ratios... does elevation matter in this scenario? 

 

I'm at 2100', but I assume the snow formation (?) zone is well above me and ground temps control what precip type arrives versus any type of ratio

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15 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Maybe a dumb question, but is low level moisture impacted by ground moisture? I just say this because I remember some time ago reading about it, but forget the exact science behind it. 

Not 100% sure..but ground moisture I wouldn't believe would for this. Now freezing fog that glazes everything would be I think. With this type airmass, larger bodies of water could play a very micro roll.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
248 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

ARZ036-048-049-058-MSZ001>005-007-008-010-TNZ021-022-049-050-
052>055-088>092-140545-
/O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0001.240114T1800Z-240116T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.W.0001.240114T1800Z-240116T1200Z/
Crittenden-St. Francis-Lee AR-Phillips-DeSoto-Marshall-Benton MS-
Tippah-Alcorn-Tunica-Tate-Coahoma-Carroll-Benton TN-Tipton-
Haywood-Madison-Chester-Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-Hardeman-
McNairy-Hardin-
Including the cities of West Memphis, Forrest City, Marianna,
Helena-West Helena, Southaven, Olive Branch, Holly Springs,
Ashland, Ripley MS, Corinth, Tunica, Senatobia, Clarksdale,
Huntingdon, Camden, Covington, Brownsville, Jackson, Henderson,
Lexington, Parsons, Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown,
Collierville, Memphis, Millington, Somerville, Oakland, Bolivar,
Selmer, and Savannah
248 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi and West
  Tennessee.

* WHEN...From noon Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
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9 minutes ago, Knoxtron said:

Man, reading this forum leading up to an event is peak happiness haha

 

I'm sorry if this is basic, but when it comes to snow ratios... does elevation matter in this scenario? 

 

I'm at 2100', but I assume the snow formation (?) zone is well above me and ground temps control what precip type arrives versus any type of ratio

The DGZ isn't based on height (granted you would have to be at the Arctic for the DGZ to near the surface). It's based on certain temperature zone (-10C to -20C) relative to the RH in that zone. Saturate that area and flakes form. Temp from there to surface determines PType.

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Not 100% sure..but ground moisture I wouldn't believe would for this. Now freezing fog that glazes everything would be I think. With this type airmass, larger bodies of water could play a very micro roll.
I think it does, but I think only nominally so. Any evaporative body can contribute to low level moisture. Similar to summer with trees when fully leafed large forests especially rainforests transpiration from the foliage itself plays a role in RH in low levels. I think a highly saturated ground would assist RH but I just don't think it would be a significant amount, but any and all sources contribute and help.
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9 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said:

I’m about to stick a fork in East TN. It’s been horrible trends the last 24 hrs. I feel we will be lucky to see 2” in the upper valley. Hopefully we get a good system come through in Feb. We are ridiculously overdue a good snow.

Not at all. Greene county looks good. At worst a couple hours of freezing drizzle. 
 

if anyone should stick a fork in it it's me haha. This is the one time me being tucked in the mountains in Unicoi county is a bad thing. Even then I'll see some frozen which is a win. You guys further east in the valley haven't had a setup this good since I moved here which has been 4 winters. Reel it in!!

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He's a retired meteorologist from OHX so he's probably as good as anyone.
Interesting to see his point on the axis of heavier snow considering he was a former OHX Met, definitely puts some weight behind his opinion. Might also explain other Met decisions of not moving the axis south in their forecasts.
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52 minutes ago, Knoxtron said:

Man, reading this forum leading up to an event is peak happiness haha

 

I'm sorry if this is basic, but when it comes to snow ratios... does elevation matter in this scenario? 

 

I'm at 2100', but I assume the snow formation (?) zone is well above me and ground temps control what precip type arrives versus any type of ratio

It doesn't, in my experience. Elevation usually is a factor in marginal surface temp set ups. March 22 saw 10-12 inches here and elevation made no difference that I could tell. We were very cold throughout. 

 

The DGZ does get to the ground here when it's below 0. You'll see ice crystals filling the air even when the sky is clear. 

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I’m about to stick a fork in East TN. It’s been horrible trends the last 24 hrs. I feel we will be lucky to see 2” in the upper valley. Hopefully we get a good system come through in Feb. We are ridiculously overdue a good snow.

I actually feel better this afternoon than I did this morning.


.
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12 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

Man I really don't know what to think down here. The globals are all game on. The short range models do not like this entire corner of the state.

No they don’t and that has me a little disconcerted I am right on the line in West Knox and that gives me maybe 2 in.

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9 minutes ago, bearman said:

No they don’t and that has me a little disconcerted I am right on the line in West Knox and that gives me maybe 2 in.

Jeff doesn't seem terribly concerned about the NAM so that eases my mind a bit.  It would be amazing to have both the Euro and NAM in a good place.

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59 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:
1 hour ago, John1122 said:
18z RRFS A. Has tons of BL issues in the East. The winter weather is still unfolding at this point. 
JYTrjAF.png
 

I really like the thickness of the accumulation area with this model. Isn't this going to replace a few other models eventually including HRRR?

Yes. It's the new NAM too. 

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