Mrwolf1972 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 What rates are we looking at with this system? .15-17 to one I've read if I remember correctly Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Man, reading this forum leading up to an event is peak happiness haha I'm sorry if this is basic, but when it comes to snow ratios... does elevation matter in this scenario? I'm at 2100', but I assume the snow formation (?) zone is well above me and ground temps control what precip type arrives versus any type of ratio 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 15 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Maybe a dumb question, but is low level moisture impacted by ground moisture? I just say this because I remember some time ago reading about it, but forget the exact science behind it. Not 100% sure..but ground moisture I wouldn't believe would for this. Now freezing fog that glazes everything would be I think. With this type airmass, larger bodies of water could play a very micro roll. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Memphis TN 248 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 ARZ036-048-049-058-MSZ001>005-007-008-010-TNZ021-022-049-050- 052>055-088>092-140545- /O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0001.240114T1800Z-240116T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KMEG.WS.W.0001.240114T1800Z-240116T1200Z/ Crittenden-St. Francis-Lee AR-Phillips-DeSoto-Marshall-Benton MS- Tippah-Alcorn-Tunica-Tate-Coahoma-Carroll-Benton TN-Tipton- Haywood-Madison-Chester-Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-Hardeman- McNairy-Hardin- Including the cities of West Memphis, Forrest City, Marianna, Helena-West Helena, Southaven, Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Ashland, Ripley MS, Corinth, Tunica, Senatobia, Clarksdale, Huntingdon, Camden, Covington, Brownsville, Jackson, Henderson, Lexington, Parsons, Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis, Millington, Somerville, Oakland, Bolivar, Selmer, and Savannah 248 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi and West Tennessee. * WHEN...From noon Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricaneguy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I’m about to stick a fork in East TN. It’s been horrible trends the last 24 hrs. I feel we will be lucky to see 2” in the upper valley. Hopefully we get a good system come through in Feb. We are ridiculously overdue a good snow. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drake423 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 48 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Yes I agree. I think someone in this area….. . I live in Rhea County in the bottom of the area circled. Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 9 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: Man, reading this forum leading up to an event is peak happiness haha I'm sorry if this is basic, but when it comes to snow ratios... does elevation matter in this scenario? I'm at 2100', but I assume the snow formation (?) zone is well above me and ground temps control what precip type arrives versus any type of ratio The DGZ isn't based on height (granted you would have to be at the Arctic for the DGZ to near the surface). It's based on certain temperature zone (-10C to -20C) relative to the RH in that zone. Saturate that area and flakes form. Temp from there to surface determines PType. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Not 100% sure..but ground moisture I wouldn't believe would for this. Now freezing fog that glazes everything would be I think. With this type airmass, larger bodies of water could play a very micro roll.I think it does, but I think only nominally so. Any evaporative body can contribute to low level moisture. Similar to summer with trees when fully leafed large forests especially rainforests transpiration from the foliage itself plays a role in RH in low levels. I think a highly saturated ground would assist RH but I just don't think it would be a significant amount, but any and all sources contribute and help. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 9 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said: I’m about to stick a fork in East TN. It’s been horrible trends the last 24 hrs. I feel we will be lucky to see 2” in the upper valley. Hopefully we get a good system come through in Feb. We are ridiculously overdue a good snow. Not at all. Greene county looks good. At worst a couple hours of freezing drizzle. if anyone should stick a fork in it it's me haha. This is the one time me being tucked in the mountains in Unicoi county is a bad thing. Even then I'll see some frozen which is a win. You guys further east in the valley haven't had a setup this good since I moved here which has been 4 winters. Reel it in!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I built my chickens a redneck fortress out of straw bales. Hopefully nobody loses a comb in this cold! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 58 minutes ago, *Flash* said: I want to buy this, but not so sure ATM. Gut says he’s downplaying southern/SE middle and overdoing metro Nash. He's a retired meteorologist from OHX so he's probably as good as anyone. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Give me that kind of lift on the 18z RGEM and this type setup...and let the dice roll 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 He's a retired meteorologist from OHX so he's probably as good as anyone.Interesting to see his point on the axis of heavier snow considering he was a former OHX Met, definitely puts some weight behind his opinion. Might also explain other Met decisions of not moving the axis south in their forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 52 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: Man, reading this forum leading up to an event is peak happiness haha I'm sorry if this is basic, but when it comes to snow ratios... does elevation matter in this scenario? I'm at 2100', but I assume the snow formation (?) zone is well above me and ground temps control what precip type arrives versus any type of ratio It doesn't, in my experience. Elevation usually is a factor in marginal surface temp set ups. March 22 saw 10-12 inches here and elevation made no difference that I could tell. We were very cold throughout. The DGZ does get to the ground here when it's below 0. You'll see ice crystals filling the air even when the sky is clear. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 18z RRFS A. Has tons of BL issues in the East. The winter weather is still unfolding at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z RRFS A. Has tons of BL issues in the East. The winter weather is still unfolding at this point. I really like the thickness of the accumulation area with this model. Isn't this going to replace a few other models eventually including HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The SREF plumes are a mess for TYS. P-types all over the place. Hoping the NAM suite gets itself sorted out soon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I’m about to stick a fork in East TN. It’s been horrible trends the last 24 hrs. I feel we will be lucky to see 2” in the upper valley. Hopefully we get a good system come through in Feb. We are ridiculously overdue a good snow.I actually feel better this afternoon than I did this morning. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z Euro: 4 run snow Euro trend: 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The SREF plumes are a mess for TYS. P-types all over the place. Hoping the NAM suite gets itself sorted out soon.The 15-20 miles between us and TYS is pretty significant for this system IMO. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 18z Euro: 4 run snow Euro trend: Great and helpful post. The nw jog has commenced. One more jog SE and that was gonna be bad. Good trend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Man I really don't know what to think down here. The globals are all game on. The short range models do not like this entire corner of the state. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Great and helpful post. The nw jog has commenced. One more jog SE and that was gonna be bad. Good trend.Love this run look great for whole valley.Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: Man I really don't know what to think down here. The globals are all game on. The short range models do not like this entire corner of the state. No they don’t and that has me a little disconcerted I am right on the line in West Knox and that gives me maybe 2 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Seems it's been quite a few years since we've been able to see a setup like this. Decent precip amounts falling into very cold air. Looking forward to 15 to 1 or even greater rates. Bring the Goose feathers. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 9 minutes ago, bearman said: No they don’t and that has me a little disconcerted I am right on the line in West Knox and that gives me maybe 2 in. Jeff doesn't seem terribly concerned about the NAM so that eases my mind a bit. It would be amazing to have both the Euro and NAM in a good place. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 If nothing crazy at 0z tonight I'll be hugging Euro as my global, and hugging the RGEM for short range. We are entering the time that RGEM is generally pretty accurate. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 0z suite rolling...good luck everyone 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 59 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: 1 hour ago, John1122 said: 18z RRFS A. Has tons of BL issues in the East. The winter weather is still unfolding at this point. I really like the thickness of the accumulation area with this model. Isn't this going to replace a few other models eventually including HRRR? Yes. It's the new NAM too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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