Tucker1027 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I feel Chattanooga might get the shaft on this one… nothing new tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The easy way to spot feedback on the NAM is to find where it goes crazy w/ precip and/or snowfall. Notice that 12z has been softened a bit in E KY, and the line of precip appropriately moved southward in response. But...it is still amped there. Good trends for E TN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 3k is a more robust version of it's 12z run. Tons of mixing issues in the far eastern areas. 12k is decently SE of it's 12z run and has more qpf. Knox County is a battle ground on there with snow and freezing rain. I wouldn't be shocked if the SE trend continues. The map is very similar to the SRF mean map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, Tucker1027 said: I feel Chattanooga might get the shaft on this one… nothing new tho . Maybe, but don't base that on a the NAM which is possibly dealing w/ feedback issues. RGEM should roll in a minute. The NAM was so amped it tried to bring a slp into the Apps - only the CMC from a few days ago had that. Could it happen? Sure. But for now, no other model has anything even remotely close to its recent solutions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said: I feel Chattanooga might get the shaft on this one… nothing new tho . It's model chaos but you're in as good a spot as any as of now. Maybe better with the Euro on your side currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Maybe, but don't base that on a the NAM which is possibly dealing w/ feedback issues. RGEM should roll in a minute. The NAM was so amped it tried to bring a slp into the Apps - only the CMC from a few days ago had that. Could it happen? Sure. But for now, no other model has anything even remotely close to its recent solutions. I thought the RGEM and Euro both popped a less side low in SW NC. I figured this was the root cause of thermals getting screwed up in NE TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 NAM shows a warm nose now all the way to Nashville,steals some of the snow fall here into zr/ip at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 NAM is so amped it is trying for a gulf low late in the run. Mini miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 3k shift about 15-20 miles south with it's snow. North Knox gets 4-5 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The battle continues. Not sure I’ve ever seen such a contrast between the global models and the hi resolution models. I already feel like the forum has laid the premise for what will be a fascinating case study when all is said and done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The 12k shifted about 25-30 miles and let the precip run further east as well as south. Not as heavy in the heaviest areas but more widespread vs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 RGEM gives southwest NC 1.2 inches of QPF. NAM gives at most .4 Pretty crazy difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Maybe we need to consult @Greyhounds snowman jack-o-lantern model 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Right now the hi-res snow footprint is much larger than the global footprint. The NAM snow footprint there on the 12k and 3k is 300+ miles north to south. The globals are about half or less of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 If the RGEM is still south along w/ the SE jog by the NAM, I am close to saying the NAM is an extreme NW outlier. And the NAM is known for exactly that. Once inside of 36 hours, the NAM flattens. Closer it gets to 48, the more it amps and turns northeast. All eyes on the 18z RGEM which is just now running. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 NAM seems a little off this setup. We got the gentle isentropic upglide we all been wishing for since 2015. Energy for our system is just getting onshore in the Pac NW. Looks like the 18Z NAM is a little south (John, Carvers posts above) and the NAM will get more of the Pac NW wave on the 00Z run. Hopefully the NAM will settle in with the Globals. I'm cautiously optimist about Chattanooga. Cold air should be in place. A brief mix is possible due to low level temps, but this feels like an all snow event. Energy sliding up from the Deep South with isentropic lift is hard for even KCHA to screw up. Fingers crossed Little concern elsewhere. Looks like a gem coming for much of us! 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 MEG and JAN pull the trigger 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The RGEM has less precip and a tic south at 36. And the RGEM is what be had better fear. At this point, I don't trust the NAM at all. NBM is probably the way to go for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 RGEM looks a little north of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 MEG: ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi and West Tennessee. * WHEN...From noon Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 At 54 warm air trying to turn it to mix Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Yes, the RGEM is about 2 counties north of where it was at 12z with its qpf field. North Georgia went from .4 qpf to .1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The RGEM is rocking Knox area as it's right on the edge of the mix/zr/sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 going to be quite a bit more zr this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I just want to cash out on the 18z Icon. Too good to be true, I know. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Not bad more moisture the. The 12zSent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, *Flash* said: I just want to cash out on the 18z Icon. Too good to be true, I know. That would depend on where one lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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