Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: I don’t blame her at all. However one thing I believe that would help the local weather people in these situations is to show the viewers more than one solution and explain the difference. At this range they could show more than one accumulation map. . It looked like earlier in the video she had some sort of a meteogram up with several model snowfall totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Well SREF plumes should be out. Any one want to venture a NAM guess based on those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Well SREF plumes should be out. Any one want to venture a NAM guess based on those? The SREF mean is a slightly more south version of the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 18z HRRR looks decent for west/middle TN. A sigh of relief for now. I imagine this is the time we should start focusing more on short term resolution guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 HRRR for the win 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Big warm air push into ETN end of hrrr. Bring back the low teens and snow haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 But to be fair to Heather Haley, WPC seemed to like the NAMish solution as of 15z: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 18z NBM looks about right to me. New run is on the left. One last thing I will be watching on models is if they beef-up their qpf as El Nino systems are often under modeled. Looks super similar to the HRRR. But we need the Euro on board. If that is right, there will be some spots w/ 10+" of snow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Big warm air push into ETN end of hrrr. Bring back the low teens and snow haha It's that Nina programming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Big warm air push into ETN end of hrrr. Bring back the low teens and snow haha Looks like feedback. But....that run is loaded for eastern areas if extrapolated IMHO. The gravy train was just getting started here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z NBM looks about right to me. New run is on the left. One last thing I will be watching on models is if they beef-up their qpf as El Nino systems are often under modeled. Looks super similar to the HRRR. But we need the Euro on board. If that is right, there will be some spots w/ 10+" of snow. Looks like the % of WPC this morning,they show parts of the Cumberland getting smacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: It's that Nina programming Sign me up for that run. It looked good. That is an overrunning event. It stalls the front. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I just don't buy the thermals of NAM and end of HRRR. The mechanisms for that just isn't there unless this is going to become a major Gulf storm. The only thing in East that might affect Thermals would be downsloping, but even that I just can't see being supercharged. The flow just isn't that great over the mountains to push temps way up. East should sink deep into the 20's and Teens Monday morning clouds socked in before daybreak. Without a strong Gulf storm, without strong flow over the mountains it just doesn't make sense to me that thermals go into torch mode as the end of the short-range models are suggesting. Not wish casting just don't see the fundamentals for an Eastern torch.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: But to be fair to Heather Haley, WPC seemed to like the NAMish solution as of 15z: I’ll take that all day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Looks like feedback. But....that run is loaded for eastern areas if extrapolated IMHO. The gravy train was just getting started here. Yeah, it wasn't that bad at all. That warm air is at the end is also at peak sunlight hours. I imagine as the sun sets the cold ploughs ahead just fine. Most of the east is below freezing regardless. I will take the precip the HRRR is selling and roll the dice with artic air nearby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 We take this 10/10 times. Stalled front w/ overrunning precip from the SW. Yes, E TN does warm, but probably in response to precip flooding into the eastern valley. The cold to the northwest keeps is frozen. In reality, it would be tough for downsloping to win w/ this setup. The lift against the Apps would cancel it out. I should note...most great winter storms have mixing issues even in places which get the most snow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Yeah, it wasn't that bad at all. That warm air is at the end is also at peak sunlight hours. I imagine as the sun sets the cold ploughs ahead just fine. Most of the east is below freezing regardless. I will take the precio the HRRR is selling and roll the dice with artic air nearby. In the eastern valley, we don't want the fetch of moisture too far to the East when in the Gulf States. We have all seen how that works out. Having that fetch a little more to the southwest is not a bad thing w/ that set-up on the HRRR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Stalled is the way to victory with multiple waves 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 East Tennessee looks really cold through the entire HRRR. There is probably downsloping showing up along the foothills. Looks like Knoxville is 29 at the end of it's run. Other models are showing more of a warm push though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The NAM is much more aggressive with the precip shield early in the run, vs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The NAM is more robust with qpf out west so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 It's looking like it's going to remain in the NW/amped camp this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 It's depicting rain over southern Knox at 39 but the temp is 29 and the Skew T says freezing rain. Not sure why pivotal sees that as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The 18z NAM found some juice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The 3k looks a little better/colder than the 12k. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 18z NAM still looks too amped. It gets anywhere near hour 48, and it gets amped. But good to see more precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Beautiful . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 It's stepping slightly SE this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 3k NAM has a similar orientation of the precip from 12z, it just has much much more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFranklin88 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 NBM holding steady and qpf increasing on high res mods would be great trends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now