tnweathernut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Euro is trolling us at this point. This system and the next. Poof. lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, *Flash* said: With so many pro-Euro/GFS on this forum, I assume the 15z SREF can be disregarded since it doesn’t account for the suppression/Canadian low up top as strongly? What does it show? I think a lot of us are also watching some really bad basketball right now which doesn't help. LOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 For those curious, saw the 72hr NH verification scores last night in the MA forum...Euro is still consistently king (mid .9), CMC (low .9) is second, and GFS (upper .8). I use to have the link bookmarked, but can't find it...if anyone still has it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 10 minutes ago, *Flash* said: With so many pro-Euro/GFS on this forum, I assume the SREF can be disregarded since it doesn’t account for the suppression/Canadian low up top as strongly? I don't think there is a pro one way or the other. The SREF looks like the 12:00PM NBM which I mentioned just a minute a go...SE jogged stopped on it. But I believe 12z doesn't get ingest until 3:00PM. I also mentioned this should possibly trend back NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Nino climatology favors a more coastal track. I sometimes wonder if these models have had three years of Nina tendencies plugged into their programming.....Nino climatology is a bias east, but modeling refused for days to see that. I would not be surprised to see the bullseye end-up being western North Carolina. The Piedmont isn't out of it. We do know each occurrence is ingested into the Model's. So, 3 Year's of Nina's.. probably so . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The SREF is showing a NAMish solution which makes sense, as they share some DNA I believe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 For those wanting the Euro output, here you go: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: We do know each occurrence is ingested into the Model's. So, 3 Year's of Nina's.. probably so . It is a likely problem, and I believe this is why we are seeing SE jogs this winter. It is like all of the model trends that we knew for 15 years have been reversed. Modeling has been well northwest of where it should have been - almost like a severe Nina bias. It can even be seen in LR modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, John1122 said: The SREF is showing a NAMish solution which makes sense, as they share some DNA I believe. Yeah it does...almost considered the nam Ensemble. Can also give a glimpse into the next nam run sometimes for trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I thought Ninas normally favored suppression and out to sea, which to me would fit this trend. Aren't Ninas when places further to our south usualy get good snows? Where's that juicy Nino STJ when you need it lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: It is a likely problem, and I believe this is why we are seeing SE jogs this winter. It is like all of the model trends that we knew for 15 years have been reversed. Modeling has been well northwest of where it should have been - almost like a severe Nina bias. It can even be seen in LR modeling. Yeah, makes sense. Glad you thought of it. Good catch man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I will be interested in the 15z NBM. If it holds the snow axis in the same place, that is a decent sign the SE trend has stopped. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Let’s get this to trend NW and bump precipitation it’s been a common occurrence in the past. I don’t know how many times Franklin was on the sweet spot and at the last moment it ended up TNKY line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I don't think there is a pro one way or the other. The SREF looks like the 12:00PM NBM which I mentioned just a minute a go...SE jogged stopped on it. But I believe 12z doesn't get ingest until 3:00PM. I also mentioned this should possibly trend back NW. Whoops. Sorry, I missed that update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I thought Ninas normally favored suppression and out to sea, which to me would fit this trend. Aren't Ninas when places further to our south usualy get good snows? Where's that juicy Nino STJ when you need it lol. Nina storm tracks are cutters west of where an inland runner would be. There are two storm tracks. Primary is just to the west of the Apps or the Apps. Secondary can be a slider. The Mid Atlantic hates Nina climatology. Weak Ninas can be decent as we pick-up the slider track. During the past three winters, the track through the eastern valley has been a primary track which is why I mention it - if that makes sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 And it will depend on where one lives as to what trend they want. LOL. I do want the SE trend to stop, but I don't want much of a NW trend for MBY selfishly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 NOAA runs two supercomputer system...nicknamed "Dogwood" and "Cactus"...ones in Virginia, one in Arizona. Currently they are numerically driven...but their replacements are being worked on that will change them to machine learning based. If the Enso states are being over done one way or the other, then a programmer changed their algos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: And it will depend on where one lives as to what trend they want. LOL. I do want the SE trend to stop, but I don't want much of a NW trend for MBY selfishly. I’m just terrified of the prospect of having brutal cold with no snow to show for it. May have to chase with the kiddos on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 WVLT is riding with the NAM it looks like. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wulfer Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Catoosa County Ga. added to WSW list. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: WVLT is riding with the NAM it looks like. . She basically seems to be going with the NAM graphic and describing the snow to rain transition based on diurnal heating. Time stamp is around 6 minutes in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: She basically seems to be going with the NAM graphic and describing the snow to rain transition based on diurnal heating. Time stamp is around 6 minutes in. So are we saying her take on it is wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 She basically seems to be going with the NAM graphic and describing the snow to rain transition based on diurnal heating. Time stamp is around 6 minutes in. I never would have imagined we would have temp issues . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Huge win for Tennessee . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, weathertree4u2 said: So are we saying her take on it is wrong? If her only reasoning is diurnally driven temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Look, I get it, I'm sorry for her. No matter what happens she is going to have a bunch of idiots messaging the WVLT studio, harassing her and her family. I suspect she is trying to temper expectations for viewers. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: Look, I get it, I'm sorry for her. No matter what happens she is going to have a bunch of idiots messaging the WVLT studio, harassing her and her family. I suspect she is trying to temper expectations for viewers. Something needs to slow the chatter never really seen anything like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: What does it show? I think a lot of us are also watching some really bad basketball right now which doesn't help. LOL. OK, let's get back to work. 21-4 run to end the game, and a TN win. The SE trend stopped in Athens! Time to Knecht the cold with the precip and get some snow!!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Look, I get it, I'm sorry for her. No matter what happens she is going to have a bunch of idiots messaging the WVLT studio, harassing her and her family. I suspect she is trying to temper expectations for viewers. I don’t blame her at all. However one thing I believe that would help the local weather people in these situations is to show the viewers more than one solution and explain the difference. At this range they could show more than one accumulation map. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I don’t blame her at all. However one thing I believe that would help the local weather people in these situations is to show the viewers more than one solution and explain the difference. At this range they could show more than one accumulation map. .This is why a lot of Mets ride the NMB. It's the safer route than picking a single winning model.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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