Daniel Boone Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 17 minutes ago, John1122 said: The UKIE took a jump Southeast and is more in-line with the RGEM. The NAM family seems to be in the NW camp by itself now. Dam* Nam ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 58 minutes ago, John1122 said: RAP at the end of it's run. That pretty much shows the print of the higher ratio cold not getting across the Plateau. Even if same amount of QPF falls aa snow there's of course less accs east of Plateau. Hopefully the colder air makes it in over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Yes, it looks a lot like the 3k NAM. Probably because it is essentially the 3k NAM and the HRRR wrapped in one. It runs as a hi-res deterministic model for the first, I think, 36 hours and finishes to 60 as an ensemble run.And this model will be replacing the NAM, HRRR, and the RAP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: That pretty much shows the print of the higher ratio cold not getting across the Plateau. Even if same amount of QPF falls aa snow there's of course less accs east of Plateau. Hopefully the colder air makes it in over. So it pretty much makes it a niña like storm? Trying to remember, but seems like there have been a few the past couple of years where the whole state gets snow while the east gets cold rain with the cold air just hanging out on the edge of the plateau. One storm in particular I remember models busted as we got mostly rain here and no snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Just now, 1234snow said: And this model will be replacing the NAM, HRRR, and the RAP? Yes, according to NOAA. Quote Within the NOAA model unification effort, the RRFS represents the evolution of the NAM, RAP, HRRR, and HREF systems to a new unified deterministic and ensemble storm-scale system. This new system is targeted for initial operational implementation in late 2024 as a planned replacement for the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: That pretty much shows the print of the higher ratio cold not getting across the Plateau. Even if same amount of QPF falls aa snow there's of course less accs east of Plateau. Hopefully the colder air makes it in over. I believe in the case of the RAP there, it's still very early in the storm evolution and it should still have 12 hours or so to go with hopefully a better cold press. But after looking at some of the NAM family members, maybe not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Two random things which I thought about: 1. Climatology track is winning out...so far 2. The jet max might be playing a part in the eastern valley.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Thanks! I will be following this model for the storm to see what bias it may have as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, BhamParker said: Just booked a cabin in Gatlinburg from tomorrow until Wednesday! Looking forward to this storm. . Oddly, you might actually be better off in a hotel in Knoxville for this one. It's a strange storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: Also… im not sure it’s gonna make it to the low 40’s today. It’s 30.8 at my house. . Yeah, man. I thought the same. Winch chills in my area are 18-23F....pretty brutal. I don't know that it will feel likes the 40s at any point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Oddly, you might actually be better off in a hotel in Knoxville for this one. It's a strange storm.I’m all about the Mountain Views. After looking at ensembles and reading the NWS discussion, I feel they are both in good spots. I’m just looking for 2-4 and I feel it’s a safe bet with a ceiling that could be higher since temps will be so cold. Seems to be a maximizing of moisture over sevier county on several of the models. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Man, what model is wbir using? Just caught the "futurecast" from them and the moisture and cold looks beefy. No concerns if you are on the NW or SE fringe according to that model. Of course they didn't show any totals yet. Just found it odd as usually it always seems the news network models are the ones that show the least amount of snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 18 minutes ago, BhamParker said: I’m all about the Mountain Views. After looking at ensembles and reading the NWS discussion, I feel they are both in good spots. I’m just looking for 2-4 and I feel it’s a safe bet with a ceiling that could be higher since temps will be so cold. Seems to be a maximizing of moisture over sevier county on several of the models. . The mean looks like that because one member dumped well into double digit inches over that area. You may or may not get rained on there due to downsloping. Hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The Euro is coming in south. Memphis may get blanked if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 If after all this, the upper gulf coast gets the snow storm I'll have to take a winter model watching sabbatical. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Not sure which is more SE the GFS or Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Might be time to get those two SE counties in TN...included in the WSW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I have said for the better part of a week that suppression is the concern. That is a big time arctic air mass. It was gonna force this south. I have seen it dozens of times. That said, I do suspect this starts trend northwest during the next couple of runs. We saw that a little but at 12z on some modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 We are approaching the "something's gotta give" stage of modeling. These tracks for the precip shield are well over 150 miles apart 36 hours before it's starting in the western areas. They'll either converge or one set is riding off the cliff into oblivion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The magnitude of that SE jog just seems overdone. Tempted to write it off as too exaggerated, granted suppression tendencies make sense. If you’re in middle TN, check out Bobby Boyd’s Twitter. Great content on there. Here’s hoping there are NO more SE trends so major TN metros can score. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Nino climatology favors a more coastal track. I sometimes wonder if these models have had three years of Nina tendencies plugged into their programming.....Nino climatology is a bias east, but modeling refused for days to see that. I would not be surprised to see the bullseye end-up being western North Carolina. The Piedmont isn't out of it. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 There's a low in Canada over the top. When it's weaker the Euro is further north. When it's stronger, further south. Yesterday at 12z it was 986 and most of Tennessee got a good run. Today it's 981 and half of Tennessee gets blanked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Nino climatology favors a more coastal track. I sometimes wonder if these models have had three years of Nina tendencies plugged into their programming.....Nino climatology is a bias east, but modeling refused for days to see that. I would not be surprised to see the bullseye end-up being western North Carolina. The Piedmont isn't out of it. Carver you are a smart man. You hit the nail on the head when talking about the polar jet and suppression. This northern jet coming in is no joke next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: There's a low in Canada over the top. When it's weaker the Euro is further north. When it's stronger, further south. Yesterday at 12z it was 986 and most of Tennessee got a good run. Today it's 981 and half of Tennessee gets blanked. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The NBM has halted the SE jog FWIW. I don't know if it has the latest runs ingested. It might not until 3:00PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 I foolishly thought we finally had a simple set up that would work for most of us. But it's Tennessee, so of course not. Models can nail snow in Texas or Oklahoma a month out. Here 6 hours out they struggle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 See how it plays out, but a lot of model bias is showing up in each one. NAM has a long, long history of over amping. Globals tend to have a hard time even at short range with how far a true arctic front presses SE (too slow most times). Also, looking at RH data @700/850/925, some of the models output seem too dry on northern side. This arctic airmass "should" squeeze out every drop. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Looks like the Mississippi Mauler is back on the table! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Can someone post those latest maps? We are all getting whiplash. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 This would be a rug pull for the ages, for SE KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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