BlunderStorm Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: It's been a long time since something like that happened here. Most I've ever recorded in a day since recording totals in late 2016 was March 22' at 6.7". I'd take a quarter of that snow total haha. One of the concerning aspects of that run however was the presence of the warm nose/downslope (not sure what that chalks up as). Pivotal shows a significant stretch of zr resolving the 12z rgem expanding on what ice the 6z had. Areas in the eastern edge of the valley most effected but I can't help but wonder if something similar could be seen to the nw of Bays mountain and Clinch mountain. Also hi everybody! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Think NWS offices are pulling the trigger quicker due to the Arctic air following the system. Giving an increased lead time to the public. Wouldn't be shocked to see MEG pull the trigger early depending on how rest of 12z wraps up. They have it built into their wording for up to 36 hr lead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 12z FV3 still snowing heavily Plateau and east at 60. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 My buddy in Jackson is saying Memphis NWS thinks this is interstate 40 and south. Tells me they don’t like the NAM. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Also… im not sure it’s gonna make it to the low 40’s today. It’s 30.8 at my house. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 GFS Southeast and less precipitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I showed my wife all the mods. She picked the 3k NAM would probably be right. I’m packing her bags now. . 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 GFS 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 8 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: GFS Southeast and less precipitation. Definitely flatter....western side ticked north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 GFS I didn’t look at the temps but I’m guessing the GFS thinks the front is ahead of schedule?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Definitely flatter....western side ticked north. Yeah looking at the snow output it actually doesn't look too much different. CMC is still a little stronger with more precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Flatter the system, the more the Hi-Res mods will carry more weight due to the complex features of the valley. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Canadian 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 12z cmc looking very interesting with the turn NW at the end, that's close to a big dog run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 With this system being a little flatter, it may leave the gulf more open for #2 (or the wave may turn into a #2 lol) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 RAP at the end of it's run. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just booked a cabin in Gatlinburg from tomorrow until Wednesday! Looking forward to this storm. . 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: With this system being a little flatter, it may leave the gulf more open for #2 (or the wave may turn into a #2 lol) Have been consumed with watching the first wave but seems like 12z suites are baby stepping the low more northwesterly up the east coast. Would love to see some bonus backend high ratio snow for east tn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, Bigbald said: Have been consumed with watching the first wave but seems like 12z suites are baby stepping the low more northwesterly up the east coast. Would love to see some bonus backend high ratio snow for east tn If GFS is in the right ballpark, maybe a tad more than a backend fluff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The new NAM replacement is out to 53hrs and it's a little south of the NAM but not by a ton. Its snow shield is almost right along 40 in East Tennessee and west of I-81. But it will likely be getting better for the East towards 60. Memphis gets 4 inches of snow and changes over to sleet and freezing rain on it. What a nightmare that would be, if zr gets involved. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Well maybe it won't get better. It's warm nosing like crazy and has rain in Crossville and mid-40s up the Eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: Well maybe it won't get better. It's warm nosing like crazy and has rain in Crossville and mid-40s up the Eastern areas. I always tell myself not to get excited until the snow is falling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The UKIE took a jump Southeast and is more in-line with the RGEM. The NAM family seems to be in the NW camp by itself now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 UKIE. 10:1 may be right here because it gets up into the lower 30s in the East. Probably a 75 mile shift SE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Well maybe it won't get better. It's warm nosing like crazy and has rain in Crossville and mid-40s up the Eastern areas.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Greyhound said: . It's the NAM upgrade coming to full time use later this year. Maybe it has the same biases the NAM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: t's the NAM upgrade coming to full time use later this year. Is that the RRFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, John1122 said: ICON keeps things pretty steady, it may be wrong but it's remarkably consistent. Yeah, this could turn out to gain it some respect if ir were to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Here are the Euro Machine Learning models for those interested: There are more than 2 ML models, but only 2 have precip panels available 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Is that the RRFS? Yes, it looks a lot like the 3k NAM. Probably because it is essentially the 3k NAM and the HRRR wrapped in one. It runs as a hi-res deterministic model for the first, I think, 36 hours and finishes to 60 as an ensemble run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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