January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event

[Carvers Gap]

Well, that is a straight up and amped Miller A on the Canadian.  Wow.   That is the trend.  Drop the energy SE, and then let it rip.

[Carvers Gap]

The CMC is a far west outlier.  It is literally like 1-2 days behind trends of other modeling, but did manage an inland runner.  Jax, great post.  The energy that is catching up with this cold front is not being modeled well.  

[Carvers Gap]

Flatter is likely.   If we can get a low from just off the coast and to just inside the coast, that would be a score.  I don't think the Canadian is on the same page right now.  The ICON is the 12z suite scenario that we want to avoid.

[John1122]

The Canadian has an extreme warm nose at 800mb that causes sleet/freezing rain over the Eastern Valley areas and southern Mid-State. The model is depicting heavy sleet and the 800mb warm nose temp being about 33-34f while the surface temps below it are in the mid to upper 10s. The Eastern Valley/S-Mid-state areas get like .6 to .7 QPF of sleet which would be about 1.5-2.1 inches of sleet with around a half inch to inch of snow on top of it. 

[Carvers Gap]

Here is what makes the most sense about the Canadian....the SLP forms along the front and rides it up the coast.  The scenario where the SLP is 200mi off Charleston, SC, and the wave forms so far behind the front doesn't make as much sense.  What does make sense is for a Miller A, inland runner, or even Apps runner to get lit on the Gulf Coast and come northeast.  In that regard, the Canadian makes a lot of sense....I just think it will be closer to the coast.

[John1122]

I believe the mid-state saw some extreme sleet like that during the massive Arctic blast that shut down Texas. A sleet storm in the lower 10s that time.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

The Canadian has an extreme warm nose at 800mb that causes sleet/freezing rain over the Eastern Valley areas and southern Mid-State. The model is depicting heavy sleet and the 800mb warm nose temp being about 33-34f while the surface temps below it are in the mid to upper 10s. The Eastern Valley/S-Mid-state areas get like .6 to .7 QPF of sleet which would be about 1.5-2.1 inches of sleet with around a half inch to inch of snow on top of it. 

Well, sledding will be fast.  LOL.

[Stovepipe]

The ICON runs out of gas but still gets half the state some action.  If I'm in west TN, I'm feeling pretty good, even with the worst case scenarios.

[Stovepipe]

12z GFS would shut the state down for a few days with the modeled temps.

 

[fountainguy97]

I feel like the gfs was about the best case. Seems any more amped it'll be easy to have mixing issues. I don't see a way to get a ton more moisture out of this. 

[weathertree4u2]

3 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

The ICON runs out of gas but still gets half the state some action.  If I'm in west TN, I'm feeling pretty good, even with the worst case scenarios.

Yea Middle is not looking to shabby either on most models 

[weathertree4u2]

1 minute ago, Stovepipe said:

12z GFS would shut the state down for a few days with the modeled temps.

 

That is a 10:1 ratio right, this will be a higher ratio wont it? 

[fountainguy97]

1 minute ago, Stovepipe said:

12z GFS would shut the state down for a few days with the modeled temps.

 

What's absurd is the entire state is pretty much below 32 starting this Sunday and going through the next Sunday. And most of that is WAY below 32

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

I feel like the gfs was about the best case. Seems any more amped it'll be easy to have mixing issues. I don't see a way to get a ton more moisture out of this. 

I can find us a way.  LOL.  Run that SLP from New Orleans to Norfolk.  Word on the street is that the AI model has that track - but it is always wrong!  LOL.

[Stovepipe]

1 minute ago, weathertree4u2 said:

That is a 10:1 ratio right, this will be a higher ratio wont it? 

Kuchera so better than 10:1.  The cobb is higher too so it's a pretty good bet that ratios are gonna be awesome.

[fountainguy97]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I can find us a way.  LOL.  Run that SLP from New Orleans to Norfolk.  Word on the street is that the AI model has that track - but it is alway wrong!  LOL.

That would do it lol.  This will be a breath of fresh air considering ground will be fully frozen at the start. We won't lose a single flake to melt assuming CMC is over doing it. Not to mention we won't break 32 for an entire 7 days. Even 2-3" of snow will stick around for days

[fountainguy97]

Gefs really coming on board. 

[Carvers Gap]

14 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

12z GFS would shut the state down for a few days with the modeled temps.

 

It would shut down this area, but also potentially many of the major cities along the East Coast.  Power grid would be stretched THIN.  Between downed lines due to ice on the SE edge and the prolonged cold from Texas to the major cities....could get rough.

[Silas Lang]

Phew. Looks more and more likely the state will be crippled with cold and some kind of frozen precipitation. How much seems to be the question now. 

[Carvers Gap]

And looking down the line, snow showers would persist for days....and likely more storms after.  Loaded pattern...and we haven't been able to say that in a long time.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z UKMET has come well south of 0z.  Trends on operationals matter at this stage.  

[weathertree4u2]

This is turning out to be an epic run of the GFS 

[fountainguy97]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z UKMET has come well south of 0z.  Trends on operationals matter at this stage.  

Yep much improved. All I want to see is 12z euro. Great trends toward a pretty consistent storm setup.  Now that we are slowly coming inside 5 days we will have to watch for those smaller "tick" trends. 

[tnweathernut]

Another benefit for modeling, and a reason to start centering around a general solution we can have some confidence in……….is the big wrapped up storm for tomorrow is pretty consistent among modeling now.

[TellicoWx]

Now need to get this inside the 72-84hr window...models are known to have an almost mini truncation point during that time. If any big move is going to happen that's the window I look at.

[Carvers Gap]

23 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said:

This is turning out to be an epic run of the GFS 

I just posted in the pattern thread for you.  Pretty epic....yardstick for John's backyard.

[Stovepipe]

Another look at those last two GFS runs, for documentation purposes.

Memphis:

Nashville:

Crossville:

Knoxville:

Tri Cities:

 

[PowellVolz]

The Canadian has an extreme warm nose at 800mb that causes sleet/freezing rain over the Eastern Valley areas and southern Mid-State. The model is depicting heavy sleet and the 800mb warm nose temp being about 33-34f while the surface temps below it are in the mid to upper 10s. The Eastern Valley/S-Mid-state areas get like .6 to .7 QPF of sleet which would be about 1.5-2.1 inches of sleet with around a half inch to inch of snow on top of it. 

I don’t see how a shallow warm layer at 800 is enough to change this to sleet. It wouldn’t take much dynamics at all to cool that layer down a degree or two and with low teens at the surface, it will also have strong forcing and terrain driven lift from beneath it.


.

[fountainguy97]

11 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Now need to get this inside the 72-84hr window...models are known to have an almost mini truncation point during that time. If any big move is going to happen that's the window I look at.

Yeah this is always the "no man's land" of winter storms. We have a somewhat consistent storm scenario on all OPs now. But there is this 2 days of "Who knows where this goes" before we really begin to lock in. Next 2-3 days will be long ones haha

[Carvers Gap]

Just digging through the January thread.  Models have had this cold front since December 31st.  That is just impressive.