Matthew70 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, realdeal2414 said: Can someone explain what QPF means? I’m just along for the ride here l, don’t have much to offer. Thanks everyone who brings the info! It stands for the amount of precipitation. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 01z NBM 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 01z NBMWonder if it has ingested the 0Z GFS, I would assume so.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Wonder if it has ingested the 0Z GFS, I would assume so.Sent from my Pixel 7 using TapatalkI think it’s a combination of all mods with some tweaks. Regardless, that’s one of the best runs I’ve ever seen for Tennessee . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 15 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I think it’s a combination of all mods with some tweaks. Regardless, that’s one of the best runs I’ve ever seen for Tennessee . As George Constanta might say, there is shrinkage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The GEFS mean was similar to the OP but lesser amounts towards Chattanooga and more towards the Kentucky border north of Nashville. One member just absolutely crushed the Eastern Valley near the mountains and it skewed the mean a little and there's a 5 inch bullseye east of Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, John1122 said: The GEFS mean was similar to the OP but lesser amounts towards Chattanooga and more towards the Kentucky border north of Nashville. One member just absolutely crushed the Eastern Valley near the mountains and it skewed the mean a little and there's a 5 inch bullseye east of Knoxville. The Dandridge Dollop? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 There was a set up like this in the early 2000s, I can't remember the year but I was probably 10 miles north of the snow band and it just went on all day with light snow where I got about an inch in 10 hours and just south of me got 4 to 6 inches. It was painful, 24 hours out I was in the bullseye, and was under a WSW for 4-8 inches. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: The Dandridge Dollop? Sort of but bigger. About the southern half of Jefferson and a good part of Sevier co. The mean is a bit more East Tn centric than I'd noticed. The 3.5+ inch mean is basically Scott down to Cumberland and points east. Surprised that no one out west made it to 3.5 inches. These are all 10:1 btw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 11 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The UKIE remains NW, even more than the NAM. 3+ inch line from Middleboro down to Campbell and far NW Morgan and Cumberland etc. Falls off fast east and southeast of that line. Monster run through the west and mid-state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Right now the NAM/UKIE are West/NW edge of guidance. The RGEM and ICON are in the middle. The GFS and Canadian are the southeast envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 I'm not as good as Lil Flash but this seems to be the window. The UKIE/NAM are around the middle line to the NW line. The RGEM/ICON are around the middle line with some spillover. The GGEM and GFS are around the middle line and tilted toward the southern line. That's our window and I feel like it's set. Some but probably not all in the window will see 3+ inches and some will be on the outside looking in ala the Kermit picture from a few days ago. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 There was a set up like this in the early 2000s, I can't remember the year but I was probably 10 miles north of the snow band and it just went on all day with light snow where I got about an inch in 10 hours and just south of me got 4 to 6 inches. It was painful, 24 hours out I was in the bullseye, and was under a WSW for 4-8 inches. I actually like the current placement of the precip shield 60-72 hrs out. I feel like suppression might increase totals for the eastern Valley to TN/NC border as we dial into the event. But not so shifting that the I-75 corridor doesn't score big in your neck of the woods. I suppose this is our biggest chance of a good snow in a number of years if modeling doesn't crap the bed this weekend. Hopefully, as the higher resolution mesoscales come into better range, they maintain 3-6" coverage for all or most of East Tennessee. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The Euro is going to be south it appears. Hopefully not back its near nothing runs from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Euro is probably going to look like the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Chattanooga, Knoxville and even Northern Alabama getting hit good, Northern Miss made out like a bandit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The Euro was a little north of the GFS that run. And it brought much more QPF than the prior two runs. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The 03Z RAP at 51 which is the equivalent of the 54 hour panels on the 00z suite. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 03z SREF 10:1 mean. These would be higher ratio'd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The new Hi-Res NOAA model that is in it's early stages. It goes to 18hrs most runs but goes to 60 some runs. This will replace the NAM/RAP/HRRR. Where it had gotten to through 60. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The 06z NAM is having the dewpoint issue again. It has my DP at 0 at hour 45 and just above the surface at around 900mb it has the dewpoint at -30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The NAM has went crazy, amped up and raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 I'm honest to goodness not even sure what to make of that NAM run. Sends a massive dry warm nose north while a monster snow/sleet and freezing rain band sits over the same area for a good 12 hours then pops a low off the South Carolina coast, but the precip band still sits in the same place for a few more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFranklin88 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Winter storm watch just posted for plateau and Central Valley north. Didn’t expect it this early honestly and a good sign even with odd runs of the NAM. have to think GFS/Euro/NBM weighing heavily. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Looks like all of the Eastern valley except for Bradley and Polk are in the Winter Storm Watch. We may come close to a state wide watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The RGEM and ICON look around what all other modeling besides the NAM/UKIE are showing. Still not to the end yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 RGEM is a boom again though not as much around Memphis.\ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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