Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Agree. I’m in the pretty colors. . Me too, I'm clinging to 18z Flash's kid until further updates. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I'm resigned to the fact that Chattanooga is mostly cursed in these setups. I honestly can't remember a good statewide Tennessee snow where Chattanooga managed more than an inch or so. It's tough watching areas within 30-50 miles of our area getting plastered, and we are hoping to manage a cartop dusting up to 1". It also happens here often when Georgia gets a good 3-6" snow, and we are just too far north by 30 miles or so and get nothing. That's just the way it is around here.Even the system rolling in on Monday looks to have most of our qpf used up as a cold rain before switching over, if it does at all. I'm still pulling for everyone else to get a good thumping and some miracle 50 mile jog south of colder air and decent qpf for our area. We need a surprise. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, Hurricaneguy said: I'm in Greeneville. I do not like seeing the cutoff right on our county. When it's been nearly two years since a decent snow that drives you crazy lol I know the feeling. Seems like I'm always on the cutoff of the bigger systems. I'm just happy anyone on the forum is getting some winter action. Actually having something to track has been a lot of fun (and frustrating) lol. It's definitely better than chasing 60 and 70 degrees temperatures in the middle of winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said: I'm resigned to the fact that Chattanooga is mostly cursed in these setups. I honestly can't remember a good statewide Tennessee snow where Chattanooga managed more than an inch or so. It's tough watching areas within 30-50 miles of our area getting plastered, and we are hoping to manage a cartop dusting up to 1". It also happens here often when Georgia gets a good 3-6" snow, and we are just too far north by 30 miles or so and get nothing. That's just the way it is around here. Even the system rolling in on Monday looks to have most of our qpf used up as a cold rain before switching over, if it does at all. I'm still pulling for everyone else to get a good thumping and some miracle 50 mile jog south of colder air and decent qpf for our area. We need a surprise. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk Feel your pain with this one. I'll be in the same boat. 30hours of light drizzle while 30miles west it's 8" of powder. we hug the RGEM until the end! Haha still hope for us far eastern folks! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said: I'm in Greeneville. I do not like seeing the cutoff right on our county. When it's been nearly two years since a decent snow that drives you crazy lol I completely understand that. One year in the 2000s, back around the time Stove was referencing earlier, it literally came a 4+ in snow in every single county in the area except here in my area. It was around 4 events that I just missed to the West, East, North and South. There was about a 10 mile circle with almost nothing and I was in it. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 7 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said: I'm in Greeneville. I do not like seeing the cutoff right on our county. When it's been nearly two years since a decent snow that drives you crazy lol Not sure I'd sweat it too hard. Rgem loses the flow for like a 6 hr panel at hour 67. It looks like an error to me since prior runs don't disconnect like that and it picks right back up at like hour 72ish. Would be a good hit for JC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Looks like the GFS is going to get the south siders this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 GFS is rolling over north Mississippi. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Pretty normal oscillations happening, IMO. In the overall scheme of things we see models waffling back and forth about 75-100 miles. Probably not unreasonable. We can all hope the overrunning is a bit more robust when we get to game time. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 GFS just isn't giving up.Edit: maybe losing QPF a tick faster.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Pretty normal oscillations happening, IMO. In the overall scheme of things we see models waffling back and forth about 75-100 miles. Probably not unreasonable. We can all hope the overrunning is a bit more robust when we get to game time. Yep, there's going to be a snow band that's probably 150-200 miles north to south but because of the angle, someone likely gets left out. I am surprised the window actually opened wider vs 12z and 18z when it was narrowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 00z GFS at seemingly the end of round one. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Chatty a sweet spot this run Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Alot more easterly out to sea on the gfs. I thought we had settled that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 0z GFS really does complete the picture by giving everyone in TN something to cheer for. I see you Chattanooga with those 5 kuchera inches……. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Pretty sexy for our Chatt friends if true. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Canadian is going well for Chattanooga too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, John1122 said: Canadian is going well for Chattanooga too. Remind me, when is the Super Bowl again? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, John1122 said: Canadian is going well for Chattanooga too. Snow map looks almost identical to GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Uncle Nasty's plea was heard for this run. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: Remind me, when is the Super Bowl again? It's a few weeks down the road! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Those snow weenies in the mid Atlantic forum might be about to lose their minds seeing this thing just roll out to sea on the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, John1122 said: It's a few weeks down the road! RIP Campbell County 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Overall the 00z models have shifted away from the larger overrunning shield and to a much more focused and thin overrunning band. In general most of them did sag southward some. 00z really trended away from the widespread TN event and to a more focused band of snow. Probably see alot of wobble back and forth with the location of the boundary and overrunning. It's a very touchy system. This one will be stressful up until go time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 17 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: 00z GFS at seemingly the end of round one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I honestly don’t think there’s any trends at this point going on. Feels like mods are just bouncing back and forth 50ish miles or so every run. The issue is the margin of error is pretty thin considering we are looking at 150-200 mile swath at the most for a significant amount. I’d say the big swings are over with at this point. Feels like the southern plateau up to Crossville is probably a safe spot to be in. I won’t be surprised if the bouncing around continues up until kickoff. If I had to give an opinion, I’d say the best thing for a forum wide event is for the mods to come in a little SE and hope the mods are underestimating the NW precip shield which they have been known to do. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I do wonder about QPF too. Every system has been underdone here lately. An extra .20 inch of liquid could be a huge deal with this air mass and result in several more inches of snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I honestly don’t think there’s any trends at this point going on. Feels like mods are just bouncing back and forth 50ish miles or so every run. The issue is the margin of error is pretty thin considering we are looking at 150-200 mile swath at the most for a significant amount. I’d say the big swings are over with at this point. Feels like the southern plateau up to Crossville is probably a safe spot to be in. I won’t be surprised if the bouncing around continues up until kickoff. If I had to give an opinion, I’d say the best thing for a forum wide event is for the mods to come in a little SE and hope the mods are underestimating the NW precip shield which they have been known to do. .Agree 100%. Remembering back to similar overrunning events the precip shield was often greatly under-modeled. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 14 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I honestly don’t think there’s any trends at this point going on. Feels like mods are just bouncing back and forth 50ish miles or so every run. The issue is the margin of error is pretty thin considering we are looking at 150-200 mile swath at the most for a significant amount. I’d say the big swings are over with at this point. Feels like the southern plateau up to Crossville is probably a safe spot to be in. I won’t be surprised if the bouncing around continues up until kickoff. If I had to give an opinion, I’d say the best thing for a forum wide event is for the mods to come in a little SE and hope the mods are underestimating the NW precip shield which they have been known to do. . Alot less qpf over a greater area and a southern sag, and a much less northwest trajectory. Really kind of dramatic between 0z and 12z considering the small amount of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realdeal2414 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Can someone explain what QPF means? I’m just along for the ride here l, don’t have much to offer. Thanks everyone who brings the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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