PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Not sure what's going on with Pivatol and the NAM. It's like it's showing virga as snow output. It’s like the moisture never really clears the Plateau . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Road trip to Standing Stone State Park in the upper Cumberland, whose with me? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The 3k actually has qpf reaching the ground at hour 57-60 while the 12k just shows snow overhead but has no QPF. Models aren't supposed to show virga. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Not fired up about the trends this afternoon if they are in fact trends and not glitchs. The more the system we are dealing with now moves out of our region, the more the mods seem to be act strange. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Yeah, there's someone wrong with the 12k on that run. At hour 60 it has my area at 27 degrees with a dew point of 3. At hour 60 the 3k has my area at 24 with a dewpoint of 20. That's why there's returns overhead but it amounts to nothing on the 12k. The weird part, it's saturated from 700mb to 850 then it just skews crazily left. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Gong to be a bunch of nervous people in here waiting for the rest of 0z to come in. Middle and west TN, especially north of 40 looking good with the 0z NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 This doesn't add up. I've had hours of returns and no accumulation on the 12k, have an inch already on the 3k. 12k NAM 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 More like where these short wave troughs will actually be at,it dont mean the NAM is right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Gong to be a bunch of nervous people in here waiting for the rest of 0z to come in. Middle and west TN, especially north of 40 looking good with the 0z NAM This 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The RGEM is actually south of its 18z and less QPF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 At least there’s a model for everyone in the state tonight…. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 RGEM. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 ICON looks like it will also maintain a good hit for basically the whole forum. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, John1122 said: RGEM. Long duration event in east TN. Likely 2-3 more hours of snow left to go past 84 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 ICON spreading the overrunning love here at 0z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: ICON spreading the overrunning love here at 0z It's rocking. So far the 12k NAM was the outlier at 18z and looks like it's 2 to 1 against it at 00z. The positive, someone is getting a big snow. The Memphis to Nashville are just about locked in across all modeling. The Plateau is close to it as well. NE Tn, SETn and NW Tn SWVa seem to get less on various models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, John1122 said: It's rocking. So far the 12k NAM was the outlier at 18z and looks like it's 2 to 1 against it at 00z. The positive, someone is getting a big snow. The Memphis to Nashville are just about locked in across all modeling. The Plateau is close to it as well. NE Tn, SETn and NW Tn SWVa seem to get less on various models. Agree. I was waiting for the heavier snow bands on the icon to pivot through NE TN. For some reason they just dissipate. Not likely, but I suppose it could have been downslope aided. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Agree. I was waiting for the heavier snow bands on the icon to pivot through NE TN. For some reason they just dissipate. Not likely, but I suppose it could have been downslope aided. I honestly would've thought downslope wouldn't be a thing with this particular set up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The ICON seems to be putting less emphasis on the low in the Atlantic and more on the low in the gulf. I don’t think it really matters as it relates to the overrunning which spreads across the state, but I did find it interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, John1122 said: I honestly would've thought downslope wouldn't be a thing with this particular set up. It shouldn’t be, but I have learned to never discount it completely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 20 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: This Is this projection or does he know us all too well or is it both.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: It shouldn’t be, but I have learned to never discount it completely. Knowing your microclimate is basically the be all/end all for forecasting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, bearman said: Is this projection or does he know us all too well or is it both.? Yes 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 22 minutes ago, John1122 said: RGEM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricaneguy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Icon and Nam bust for East TN. Man we are so close to this event. It's frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 This is the highest res of the NAM nest at hour 60. Actually looks like the RGEM more so than the 12k NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Just now, Hurricaneguy said: Icon and Nam bust for East TN. Man we are so close to this event. It's frustrating. I'd actually call the ICON pretty kind to probably 80 percent of East Tennessee. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I'd actually call the ICON pretty kind to probably 80 percent of East Tennessee. Agree. I’m in the pretty colors. . 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricaneguy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: I'd actually call the ICON pretty kind to probably 80 percent of East Tennessee. I'm in Greeneville. I do not like seeing the cutoff right on our county. When it's been nearly two years since a decent snow that drives you crazy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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