Wurbus Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 ICON going to look similar to RGEM I believe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I love that this is looking to be a longish duration event. Not just a quick 3 or 4 hour hit. My exuberance is growing! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 ICONic 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The NAM was likely heading this way still, it was just slow rolling and the snow had only arrived in the East as the run ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Still snowing East of the Plateau at this point. Some sleet down towards Chattanooga. . 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 I hope this is a day time event for at least some of it. Last year I blanked nearly but managed a lot of snow the prior two years but they were virtually all at night and quick hitters. Even getting 11 inches in March 22, most of it fell before 8am. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: ICONic 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Winter Storm Watches now up for Hardeman county in west Tn and the surrounding areas. Calling for 3-8 inches of snow as of right now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: The NAM was likely heading this way still, it was just slow rolling and the snow had only arrived in the East as the run ended. The SREF mean looks fine too for where it's at. Seems to be in agreement with RGEM and ICON. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said: Winter Storm Watches now up for Hardeman county in west Tn and the surrounding areas. Calling for 3-8 inches as of right now. I honestly expected them tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Memphis TN 254 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-130500- /O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0001.240114T1800Z-240116T1200Z/ Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden- St. Francis-Lee AR-Phillips-Dunklin-Pemiscot-DeSoto-Marshall- Benton MS-Tippah-Alcorn-Tishomingo-Tunica-Tate-Prentiss-Coahoma- Quitman-Panola-Lafayette-Union-Pontotoc-Lee MS-Itawamba- Tallahatchie-Yalobusha-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Monroe-Lake-Obion- Weakley-Henry-Dyer-Gibson-Carroll-Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton- Haywood-Crockett-Madison-Chester-Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette- Hardeman-McNairy-Hardin- Including the cities of Piggott, Corning, Paragould, Jonesboro, Harrisburg, Blytheville, Wynne, West Memphis, Forrest City, Marianna, Helena-West Helena, Kennett, Caruthersville, Southaven, Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Ashland, Ripley MS, Corinth, Iuka, Tunica, Senatobia, Booneville, Clarksdale, Marks, Batesville, Oxford, New Albany, Pontotoc, Tupelo, Fulton, Charleston, Water Valley, Coffeeville, Bruce, Calhoun City, Houston, Okolona, Amory, Aberdeen, Tiptonville, Union City, Martin, Dresden, Paris, Dyersburg, Humboldt, Milan, Huntingdon, Camden, Ripley TN, Covington, Brownsville, Alamo, Jackson, Henderson, Lexington, Parsons, Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis, Millington, Somerville, Oakland, Bolivar, Selmer, and Savannah 254 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi, Southeast Missouri and West Tennessee. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, John1122 said: I honestly expected them tomorrow. I thought the same, but I’m glad to see them put it out ahead of time to give people plenty of advanced notice. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 125 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 On Sunday, that upper low over the Great Lakes will reinforce cold air over our region and only allow for high temps to get into the 20s and 30s. A weaker trough will allow for a stationary boundary to linger over the mid state for the start of next week, allowing for a decent shot at some good snowfall accumulations. Models continue to waver and dont increase confidence at all with snow amounts as latest ensembles have shifted the snow axis ~100 miles to the southeast, but, the boundary, isentropic lift, and other synoptic factors are starting to point to the potential for the mid state to see accumulating snow. Ensembles show a few members at higher end amounts, dragging the mean higher, but there has been a slight uptrend in forecasted snow amounts since the previous run. We will see what the next runs have and hopefully show some consistency to increase confidence on location and magnitude of snow. The GFS/NAM show decent isentropic lift Sunday night through the day Monday, with some convergence as well as Q vector convergence hinting at pockets of banded snow potential during the day Monday. Soundings show deep saturation in the low levels just a little warmer than the DGZ, but still enough lift for good snowfall potential. GFS and its ensemble suite showing the highest potential for snowfall right now compared to other models, likely due to stronger synoptic forcing, frontogenesis, and a little more surface moisture. We will see if that holds. The one thing that has remained consistent is the cold temperatures, so unlike other snow events, this event will start and finish as snow across the area, which will further support accumulating snow. Temperatures next week are already going to struggle to get above freezing until Thursday, but any higher snowfall amounts will result in low temperatures dropping further than forecasted. Right now, the coldest night will be Tuesday night, having lows in the single digits and wind chills in the single digits below zero. Light snow looks to continue Tuesday and may result in some additional light accumulation, but at the very least, a cloudy day will prevent the sun from showing up during the day. The sun should return Wednesday with above freezing high temps Thursday. Unfortunately another trough will swing in Friday, bringing rain and snow potential along with colder temps into next weekend. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: I thought the same, but I’m glad to see them put it out ahead of time to give people plenty of advanced notice. It's the responsible thing to do. Gives a nice spread of 3 to 8, acknowledging uncertainty but bracing for the worst. Waiting until the last minute in order to be the most correct defeats the purpose of the statement. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Winter Storm Watch SOP allows up to 48 hours out. They're using all of it! 3-8 inches on a Day 3 forecast in the South. Though the Mid South would be the place to forecast it. Farther east I'm not particularly concerned about the NAM 60-84 hours. That far out the Globals should still offer greater value. I'm always concerned about Chattanooga, but not because of the NAM. 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I keep noticing Greene and cocke counties keep getting the short end of the stick on these runs. Possible downsloping issues or what? Would certainly be strange for there to be more snow points south and west of us to get several inches and then a sharp cutoff but stranger things have happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 10 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: I keep noticing Greene and cocke counties keep getting the short end of the stick on these runs. Possible downsloping issues or what? Would certainly be strange for there to be more snow points south and west of us to get several inches and then a sharp cutoff but stranger things have happened The icon is rain for border counties including your area. The NAM just has no precip for us. And the RGEM also has rain for border counties. Too amp'ed. My county is even worse. Unfortunately it's a very likely outcome with every single model showing that. Still some time to move around though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GFS totals are going to also be very similar to RGEM & ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Finally got power back...surprised a little as well about Memphis pulling trigger, figured wouldn't be until tomorrow afternoon. Glad to see @nrgjeffposting. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 35 minutes ago, Wurbus said: Except for the Johnson City area. We are the Chattanooga of northeast TN. I'm going to lobby the leaders of our city to change our name to "Downslope" City. lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: And that's 10:1.... I may lose power for a while lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I love that this is looking to be a longish duration event. Not just a quick 3 or 4 hour hit. My exuberance is growing! Yeah if it pans out it'll be the longest duration snowfall for me in many many years. As modeled with 18z GFS, IMBY and Knoxville proper it's just shy of a 24 hour continuous event in totality.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It looks like you guys/gals down around Knoxville have a GREAT shot with this one. Should be fairly widespread. This track has already been more fun than anything we got a look at last year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: It looks like you guys/gals down around Knoxville have a GREAT shot with this one. Should be fairly widespread. This track has already been more fun than anything we got a look at last year. Maybe we can score on the next system,the Euro would bring a warm nose to us tho with the LP crossing into N/Al.the GFS shows more of a inverted trough down into Cen Al.everyone would benfit from the GFS into Tn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 11 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: It looks like you guys/gals down around Knoxville have a GREAT shot with this one. Should be fairly widespread. This track has already been more fun than anything we got a look at last year. The 18z gfs got tri cities pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: The 18z gfs got tri cities pretty good Yeah, I noticed that. My downslope city comment was mostly in jest, but it’s always in the back of my mind. It’s been showing on models on and off all day. The two things we do extremely well up here are dryslots and downslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I’m at the grocery store now. I can tell you everyone is well aware in this area. I had to bag my own groceries lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I always enjoyed probability and statistics in college, even though I was horrible with numbers. If they think there is a 40% chance of 3 or more inches, would they also accept a 5000$ bet to pay out equivalent odds that it does snow over 3 inches? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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