jaxjagman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, 1234snow said: I still would feel much more comfortable with the Euro coming on board. I think the 6z Euro made steps in the right direction. We will find out soon! That being said I am tempering my own expectations just because we have 2 more full days before the event would start. I don't have much confidence in it being consistent like it used to be, but I agree. I definitely want it on board! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: I agree with this and have mentioned it several times. Modeling doesn't do well showing overrunning precip. Seems they are echoing that sentiment with their last sentence. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: May not get to watch Euro run....trees going down left and right here, ands powers out Yea it’s bad here as well @TellicoWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 May not get to watch Euro run....trees going down left and right here, ands powers out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just had some thunder in knox county 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Fair to say the 12z suite RGEM, Canadian, GFS, Nam are in lockstep with orientation and axis of the first wave (?). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Wurbus said: Just had some thunder in knox county I heard it too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I was just glancing at the news and they said a house was hit by lightning in Gallatin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just had some thunder in knox countyI saw the flash and the thunder shook my vehicle . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 At least when it gets close, the excitement/disappointment arrives fast on the model runs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I can’t post the pic or gif but it looks like the 12z Euro is continuing the earlier trend of relaxing the suppression in front of the first overrunning wave. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: I was just glancing at the news and they said a house was hit by lightning in Gallatin Yea it was pretty stormy here earlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The Euro may not be much better but it's showing more signs of life than 00z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Pressures are falling in the Western Gulf on the Euro, but a bit further south than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I do love that we’re making up on the drought with the rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Snow over spreading the entire forum region by 78 but still flatter than other guidance at 12z. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Much better at 84. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Good run and trends by the Euro. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 This run is going to be pretty similar to the other runs today at 12z. Euro caved to everyone else. 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The Euro has a low just south of Mobile at 96 but it's only producing precip right on the gulf coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Hail yeah, thanks for the updates. I’m driving around in the mess and can’t check models.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Strengthening low near the Outer Banks that isn't producing any precip on it's west/nw side for some reason by 102. I 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 So it looks like the Euro caved for the first part of the storm, but doesn't really get a coastal going like the other models. To me it looks like Euro is catching up to everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 12z Euro. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 An impossible forecast for here. Nothing at all in my corner of the county. 4" in the northern portions of Hamilton. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Strengthening low near the Outer Banks that isn't producing any precip on it's west/nw side for some reason by 102. ILike you mentioned a few days ago the Euro on the last storm system vastly under modeled QPF. In many instances the verified QPF was under modeled by the Euro by 3:1. It may do so again with this storm. If we get the Euro on board with similar placement and tracking as others then I personally am not that concerned about it's QPF forecast.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 I have no idea if this trend will hold steady, but normally when you start seeing very defined edges to the snow shield on modeling, they are zeroing on on the basic evolution if not the exact placement. Today at 12z it's been very defined edges to the snow shield across modeling. If this is still looking this way by tomorrow evening we should see our first Winter Storm Watches of the season. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said: Like you mentioned a few days ago the Euro on the last storm system vastly under modeled QPF. In many instances the verified QPF was under modeled by the Euro by 3:1. It may do so again with this storm. If we get the Euro on board with similar placement and tracking as others then I personally am not that concerned about it's QPF forecast. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk Yeah, I just want to see something similar and it is starting to look like it is falling in line, despite the QPF. It looks way better than the 12z yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12z was Johns "snap to" suite for the first wave. For east TN, we watch the second development to know if we go from very good to epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now