John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The Canadian entering the 12z bonanza before the Euro comes in and puts a turd in the punch bowl. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Oh my lawd, Canadian would be multiple 15 plus inches for east TN once adjusted for snow ratio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, jaxjagman said: GFS is the only model that kills the NW,artic air pulls out to quick,in MHO its a outlier that run Always could be wrong,it kills it but rebuilds it after again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The Canadian for future look backs at how it was soooo right or the crazy uncle again. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12z GEFs with a lot of lows in the central/western gulf at 84 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Canadian for future look backs at how it was soooo right or the crazy uncle again. The excitement level seems to be building; what are the chances that this makes the dreaded northwest jog at the last minute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Canadian for future look backs at how it was soooo right or the crazy uncle again. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 If you look at the GEFs, do not look at member 7...System that shall not be named has made an appearance lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 If you look at the GEFs, do not look at member 7...System that shall not be named has made an appearance lolI just want to cash the check right now and not look at another mod. Lol. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: The excitement level seems to be building; what are the chances that this makes the dreaded northwest jog at the last minute? For now, I'm more worried about the dreaded southeast slip. I may change over to NW panic at any run though. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This is what amped up looks like...i present member 7 lol 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The GFS only has 2 of 20 members that don't have at least 2 inches imby. The mean has over 3 inches for almost the entire forum area and over 1.5 inches for basically everyone in the region including Northern Alabama. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 15z NBM ticked up a bit. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 15z NBM ticked up a bit. You have that?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Guys we all know how this ends lol 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 UK continues on the NW side of guidance and blanks areas east of the Plateau that run for the most part. Has precip but it's likely rain as temps are above freezing in the Eastern Vallley. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: You have that? . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 You know it’s been a good few hours of modeling when you have to go back 3 pages of posts to catch up where you left off the night before. Good times! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, BNAwx said: You know it’s been a good few hours of modeling when you have to go back 3 pages of posts to catch up where you left off the night before. Good times! 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 49 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: This is what amped up looks like...i present member 7 lol This is for TYS, but I think we all know which one is member 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 We still have the King Euro to show up. Someone slip him some moonshine before he does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just looking at the UK model. It's been pretty consistent regarding the snow axis the last three runs. Nice battle between the American modeling with the snow axis further southeast and the UK with the snow axis further northwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This is for TYS, but I think we all know which one is member 7Take away the big one and the mean is still around 4 inches which is really good for that. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 12 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Just looking at the UK model. It's been pretty consistent regarding the snow axis the last three runs. Nice battle between the American modeling with the snow axis further southeast and the UK with the snow axis further northwest. It and the Euro are usually in a pretty close camp, I'm surprised it's so far on the other end of the spectrum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Take away the big one and the mean is still around 4 inches which is really good for that. . I usually take away the two biggest and the two smallest and then take the average from the remaining. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 May not get to watch Euro run....trees going down left and right here, ands powers out 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, John1122 said: It and the Euro are usually in a pretty close camp, I'm surprised it's so far on the other end of the spectrum. Definitely perplexing. The Euro (before their changes a while back) was easily the best model for north america at day 5-7 and it usually wasn't close. Maybe their changes have helped their forecasting in Europe, but it's been woefully inconsistent here where we need it. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I still would feel much more comfortable with the Euro coming on board. I think the 6z Euro made steps in the right direction. We will find out soon! That being said I am tempering my own expectations just because we have 2 more full days before the event would start. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: May not get to watch Euro run....trees going down left and right here, ands powers out Stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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