Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 weather channel has named our storm Heather lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said: weather channel has named our storm Heather lol Well then. I look forward to meeting Heather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I have seen reports of snow in North MS & now Collierville which is Memphis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Sleet reports far east as Tupelo...seems way ahead of schedule 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Hrrr is trending toward that little bend in the precip shield that was not kind to Eastern areas on other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, TellicoWx said: Sleet reports far east as Tupelo...seems way ahead of schedule It does seem way ahead. Also reports road’s covered instantly. Even up in Missouri the cams show white out conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 The dewpoints have crashed into oblivion in the mid-state. I wonder if that is having any effect on some lower QPF outputs for there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Hrrr is trending toward that little bend in the precip shield that was not kind to Eastern areas on other models. It's in the NAM family and maybe the same mechanics that are causing the NAM to be NW with the precip shield are what it's seeing. The 15z SREF mean was in about the same arc too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: It's in the NAM family and maybe the same mechanics that are causing the NAM to be NW with the precip shield are what it's seeing. The 15z SREF mean was in about the same arc too. looks good for the eastern areas heavy snow band right down the Appalachian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 The HRRR appears to have heavy snow all the way to the NC border by HR 22. Chattanooga/N.GA are in all snow too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 9 minutes ago, John1122 said: The dewpoints have crashed into oblivion in the mid-state. I wonder if that is having any effect on some lower QPF outputs for there. Yeah dewpoint 6 here. Thats not going to work for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 hrr 18z totals are going to be high its been snowing the whole run so far out to 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: looks good for the eastern areas heavy snow band right down the Appalachian yeah its definite showing more QPF this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: Yeah dewpoint 6 here. Thats not going to work for snow. It will, you'll get some virga. West of you it's snowing with air temps lower than that and dps below 0. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Lots of mixing on hrrr for eastern counties. To be expected at this point. the faster onset is probably not helping the cold push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said: Lots of mixing on hrrr for eastern counties. To be expected at this point. The soundings support snow all the way to the border. Very edges of the foothills have sub freezing column from 700 to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Jackson KY 229 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 KYZ084>088-110-113-115>120-150330- /O.UPG.KJKL.WW.Y.0003.240115T0500Z-240116T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KJKL.WS.W.0001.240115T0200Z-240116T1700Z/ McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie- Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 229 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 8 inches. Locally higher amounts in excess of 8 inches are possible, particularly at elevations above 1,500 feet. * WHERE...Portions of northeast, south central and southeast Kentucky. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 The HRRR gives the entire state around 2+ inches except for the tiny SE corner of Polk Co. Imagine being a snowlover and living there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z hrr @ 30 hrs still snowing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, John1122 said: The soundings support snow all the way to the border. Very edges of the foothills have sub freezing column from 700 to the surface. Yeah almost looks convective in nature..supporting heavy bands 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Towards the 28-30 hour mark the HRRR is giving what almost looks like convective snow shower cells around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Bright banding is always indicative of a phase change in the precipitation. It may not show on the ptype charts but the hrrr is mixing sleet/rain in for 3-5 hrs. It's not convection banding it's brighter returns hitting larger objects ie sleet/rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Also noticed when the heavy banding setup, the accum map didn't match up to the omega 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, John1122 said: The HRRR gives the entire state around 2+ inches except for the tiny SE corner of Polk Co. Imagine being a snowlover and living there. Looks closer to the NAM what its been showing IMHO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Just now, fountainguy97 said: Bright banding is always indicative of a phase change in the precipitation. It may not show on the ptype charts but the hrrr is mixing sleet/rain in for 3-5 hrs. I believe it could be due to flake size. The snow will be much wetter in those areas. Those big flakes often cause that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 HRRR lee side low popping and keeping East Tennessee under convective snow showers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z pops a low next to Ashville and keeps snowing @34 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill in MS Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Very fine sleet/ice pellets falling here in Hernando, MS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 southern border counties have some ice accumulations chatt has .10 accum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z hrrSent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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