Hillbilly Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 39 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Y’all think it’s cold? KC last night . Gotta drink them faster than that... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Yes part of the mixing you see is lack of moisture. It's a very valid concern still though. i have doubted the Ptype maps before and said "but soundings support snow!" You know what I ended up with? Not snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 It sure wouldn't hurt my feelings if we overperformed! Lol.I think there are good odds of over performing in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Maybe, wrt to precip outputs, the model thinks moisture isn't quite making it into the DGZ. I clicked on a sounding on the HRRR in that ZR and it was 10 degrees and sub freezing through the whole profile. That's why there p type issues per KGSP's discussion this morning. My forecast high Tuesday in Wolf is 21 with freezing rain. Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC1218 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024...In additionto onset ptype questions, there is also the possibility that midlevel drying will occur and cut down on ice nucleation later Mondaynight into Tuesday morning. This could lead to a transition back tofreezing drizzle or light freezing rain over the NC mountains.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 16 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Latest NBM ticked up quite a bit. 4 run trend: It ingested the NAM 3k for my area. There's some 18 inch areas between the two of us over Cross Mtn/Frozenhead/Brimstone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, John1122 said: It ingested the NAM 3k for my area. There's some 18 inch areas between the two of us over Cross Mtn/Frozenhead/Brimstone. This is my first system here where I am almost directly up wind of Frozen Head and Cross mt. I'm wondering how it plays out if that lift sets up just right 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: Not sure why but some of the models have been depicting p-types that aren't temp supported. Several have shown rain as the dominant p-type around the s/se side of the precip field but temps never getting out of the 20s while it shows it. I've never seen it before with model outputs. Yeah seems strange,this is even west of Nashville it shows ZR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, Buckethead said: That's why per KGSP's discussion this morning. My forecast high Tuesday in Wolf is 21 with freezing rain. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1218 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...In addition to onset ptype questions, there is also the possibility that mid level drying will occur and cut down on ice nucleation later Monday night into Tuesday morning. This could lead to a transition back to freezing drizzle or light freezing rain over the NC mountains. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk I remember seeing some of that in Jan 96. had a layer of ice in the middle of 16 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 This is my first system here where I am almost directly up wind of Frozen Head and Cross mt. I'm wondering how it plays out if that lift sets up just right Little backing up against Frozen Head can't hurt at all. I'm a touch worried about dryness taking a while to overcome being about 8 miles from the foot of the eastern escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: It ingested the NAM 3k for my area. There's some 18 inch areas between the two of us over Cross Mtn/Frozenhead/Brimstone. I'd take that,it snows all day tomorrow basically.Short range models dont show much past mid morning here,sure there will flakes flying around most of the day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I feel Chattanooga is going to be a major boom or bust scenario… it’s either going to be 0 or 4-6. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 MRX starting to bump totals up on the map 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Whiteout conditions being reported in NW AR 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 25 minutes ago, Jesse from KY said: I am just curious if NWS Jackson will upgrade some of the TN/VA border counties to a Warning. It's really puzzling they haven't. It's as if they've not looked at the Model's since the GFS showed the lower totals there. The NBM has heaviest there. Could be understaffed today or subs filling in . Alot if sickness going around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill in MS Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Concerning to see the Euro spitting out lower snow totals in the Memphis, North MS., and E. AR area over the past day and a half. Wonder if sleet or freezing rain will put a dent into snow totals in the second half of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12z euro looks weaker then past runs to meSent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Front is not as fast here for the SE corner...6z HRRR showed 38, 12z 40, 16z 42...obs mid 40s. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 34 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Soak it up fellas Tip of the WSW spear baby let's seal the deal! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Front is not as fast here for the SE corner...6z HRRR showed 38, 12z 40, 16z 42...obs mid 40s. Something to keep an eye on. Its already past,look at the WPC maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 8 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Whiteout conditions being reported in NW AR Thanks for mentioning surface conditions. Just checking the radar to the NAM, precip is breaking out faster than modeled. For everyone following, this is typical in overrunning situations. We can almost discard the globals at this point and go to the short range models. Even beyond that it's time to compare the actual surface to see if those short range models are initializing correct. Good luck everyone, hope the overrunning shield is a bit more robust than models indicate and hope we can keep any thermal issues down for those along the west side of the apps and especially for our brothers and sisters down toward Chattanooga. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Nashville NWS looks like they are riding the NBM. That has continued to tick up with a lollipop over the Central Valley. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 11 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Front is not as fast here for the SE corner...6z HRRR showed 38, 12z 40, 16z 42...obs mid 40s. Something to keep an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Nashville NWS looks like they are riding the NBM. That has continued to tick up with a lollipop over the Central Valley. .Was just getting ready to post that. I like following OHX graphics as they show my area generally in the graphic. Gives me an idea what their thoughts are for western areas of the MRX CWA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Yeah front has but the cold push is lagging...this is mainly for Monroe/Polk/Hamilton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Was just getting ready to post that. I like following OHX graphics as they show my area generally in the graphic. Gives me an idea what their thoughts are for western areas of the MRX CWA.The one great thing about twitter is being able to know what’s going on down stream. Not getting into the other side of social media but for weather itself, it’s probably one of the greatest assets since the Doppler radar was invented IMO. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Yeah front has but the cold push is lagging...this is mainly for Monroe/Polk/Hamilton Yall did warm up,we went to 28 here but the last couple hrs its dropped to 26 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse from KY Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Well, I'd say they will certainly be issuing one now. My point's hourly weather graph has increased totals to 5.7" 30 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: It's really puzzling they haven't. It's as if they've not looked at the Model's since the GFS showed the lower totals there. The NBM has heaviest there. Could be understaffed today or subs filling in . Alot if sickness going around. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Yeah front has but the cold push is lagging...this is mainly for Monroe/Polk/HamiltonI’m not worried about it. Should push through here in the next couple of hours. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 The Euro initialized way too dry with the system vs real time obs. Eastern Ok. SE Kansas, NW Ark, SW Missouri are getting pounded right now. Grove in SE Kansas is reporting -9 degrees with heavy snow, vis .25 miles. The 12z Euro barely has them getting precip at this hour. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Some nice radar returns popping in N MS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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