John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The ICON went back into super beast mode, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 From an east Tennessean perspective it doesn't feel good not having the NAM on board, but it is what it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: From an east Tennessean perspective it doesn't feel good not having the NAM on board, but it is what it is. It's on a very wonky island right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 WSW rolling out 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 You couldn't add these two could ya MRX 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 GFS was basically a repeat of 0z. Its the furthest south right now with the NAM being the furthest North. Usually they are in closer agreement like the UKIE and Euro, but those two are also at odds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 GFS is furthest south because it's flatter, weaker and fastest out it looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 MRX disco: An upper 300mb jet streak strengthens to over 140 kt into Monday morning with broad upper-level divergence across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians. Lower-level flow will become convergent in response to this divergence and result in widespread isentropic lift with light to moderate precipitation on Monday across the region. Deterministic QPF amounts for Monday show a likely range of 0.2 to 0.5 inches across much of the area which is expected to fall as all snow across most of the area based on model forecast soundings. With these QPF amounts, at least 2 to 5 inches of snow appear likely across most of the forecast area and a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for these locations. The most uncertainty is across our far southeastern counties which will not have as much deep cold air in place. They may have some mixed precipitation which would limit overall snowfall totals. Therefore, confidence in snow totals for these counties is lower and they are not included in the watch at this time. The ECMWF/GFS/GDPS all show a band of 0.5 to 0.8 inch QPF, and depending on where this band sets up, some areas could see higher than currently forecast snow totals. Counties within the Winter Storm Watch all have at least a portion of the county above a 50% chance of 2 inches of snow. Portions of the valley and plateau have above 50% chances of seeing at least 4 inches of snow. A low pressure system will develop along the Gulf Coast and move northeast towards the Carolinas on Monday night into Tuesday. Depending on the track of this low, we may or may not see additional precipitation on Tuesday. At this time, we are less confident in snowfall amounts on Tuesday than on Monday, but expected additional QPF and snowfall appears minimal at this time, most likely 0.1 inch of QPF or less. This may add an additional inch or two of snow to mainly our far eastern counties near the mountains along the TN/NC state line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Seems like a new era has beholden at MRX. That’s a beautiful and thorough disco. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 OHX: An upper level system to our west will then approach mid state region as Sunday night through Monday progresses, eventually pushing east of our area as day on Tuesday progresses. Lows on Sunday night will range in low to mid teens. Highs on Martin Luther King Jr Day will range mainly low to mid 20s. Lows Monday night will be in low to mid teens. Highs on Tuesday will actually be even colder than Martin Luther King JR Day, ranging upper teens northwest to lower 20s elsewhere. Models coming more into line with potential of an accumulating snowfall event across mid state region during Sunday night through Tuesday morning time frame. Best potential of accumulating snowfall will be as Martin Luther King Jr Day progresses. Because models trending toward a common depiction of snowfall and snowfall potential across our area, and in coordination with surrounding offices and WPC Winter Weather operations, have issued a winter storm watch for accumulating snowfall amounts ranging from around 3.0 inches up to 4.5 inches across mid state region during this time period. Some lingering snow showers may persist across Cumberland Plateau Region on Tuesday afternoon with flurry chances to its west, but no additional snowfall accumulations expected presently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I guess someone has to live on the knifes edge. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The NAM loves to amp stuff too hard in the mid-long range. It's pretty bad outside 48hrs. RGEM can do it too on occasion but is typically more reliable. Globals have definitely ticked flatter since 12z yesterday. I full expect the NAM to cave at some point. RGEM is a beauty and is right in line with most overnight globals All of the energy will be coming onshore by 00z tonight so I'll be treating 00z as the first run to take seriously for amounts and locations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Man I thought I would wake up to more consensus this AM, but I think some of the wonkier solutions have doubled down. 6z GFS almost tried for the second wave again. Thanks to all y'all night owls for the good disco to catch up on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 6z Euro: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Thank you for posting. How does that compare with the previous model run? Specifically orientation of storm and qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Here's the EURO trend. Definitely a smidge south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: Thank you for posting. How does that compare with the previous model run? Specifically orientation of storm and qpf. I think it sagged the precip axis a little south and cut down on qpf: 0z qpf on the left, 6z on the right: I'm not too concerned with that just yet. NAM is still waaayyy amped and RGEM is a nice compromise between the two. IMO this is going to be like some of what I call the Freaking Flooding February set ups we had in some of the past Springs. Not so much that we will get like 4-7" of qpf, but there will be a "snow hose" set up somewhere in the TN Valley and that qpf maximum will fluctuate based on things like terrain, the exact location/ strength of the jet that is facilitating this lift, and small vorticity maximums swinging through in the mid levels. as long as nothing makes a huge shift today, it's probably just a wait and see where it sets up and follow short term models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 WPC is still north: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFranklin88 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 WPC is still north:Interesting how different that is than the graphics from MRX this morning . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Yesterday, I was reading some on another forum covering the Chicago snow (can’t remember where I saw it), but was talking about the NAM being the only one not on board with a major snow). It ended up beating all the other models. It’s interesting because our system is projected so much further north than other modeling on the NAM. If it continues to stay north, will be fascinating to see if it can score a similar victory. I will say I have seen numerous overrunning setups in the past be further north and/or have that SW to NE trajectory vs the WSW to ENE trajectory once it starts developing. The good thing is, we don’t have to wait too much longer to find out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 As George Constanta might say, there is shrinkageI was talking about the NBM mod that was posted 2 posts above me. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Yesterday, I was reading some on another forum covering the Chicago snow (can’t remember where I saw it), but was talking about the NAM being the only one not on board with a major snow). It ended up beating all the other models. It’s interesting because our system is projected so much further north than other modeling on the NAM. If it continues to stay north, will be fascinating to see if it can score a similar victory. I will say I have seen numerous overrunning setups in the past be further north and/or have that SW to NE trajectory vs the WSW to ENE trajectory once it starts developing. The good thing is, we don’t have to wait too much longer to find out. Chicago got absolutely screwed and the NAM had it right?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Chicago got absolutely screwed and the NAM had it right? . That was my understanding, but I'm not sure what lead time the person was talking about. If it was less than 24-36 hours that's a lot different than NAM had it nailed from 84. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 NAM at 42 is still going to be north but it has ticked SE and weaker with precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The 12z NAM is definitely a smidge SE through 45(and has vastly less precip) than 6z....fairly big move to towards other modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I love this precip map on COD. 06zfirst 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Every morning I get up and look at TWC app just to delay being disappointed for when I look at the board. This morning TWC has 3-5” for Monday and 3-5” for Monday night. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Suppressions concerns me. The NAM "should" be the furtherst NW given its bias. I can't think of another model that would be that far NW. So that is the northern side of the cone. My area has moved from the SE side of precip to the very NW edge on a lot of modeling this morning. My guess is that modeling is now feeling the cold air push this....I also guess this will jog just so much further SE and then begin to trend NW agains IF modeling bias holds to what it used to be...and that is a big IF.. The trend overnight on pretty much all modeling is SE in small or even moderate steps. Maybe the place to be is on the SE side of the snow axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I'm not sure who remembers AM Weather (really showing my age), but it was primarily an agricultural/aviation weather program I'd watch before school every morning in the winter time. This map is a fancy version of what you'd see on that program. I like it because it's old school. lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 18 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: That was my understanding, but I'm not sure what lead time the person was talking about. If it was less than 24-36 hours that's a lot different than NAM had it nailed from 84. I know its more Mesoscale but the NAM blew away the GFS and Euro the last tornado outbreak here,it did very well into its extended range.Im not saying its gonna be the same outcome as this,i'm just saying 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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