TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I think I'm cautiously optimistic here...only thing I haven't liked today was the GEFS has cut totals every run since 6z, but that could be more smoothing as we draw closer (or at least I hope so) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 7 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Quite possibly they were my first as well in that same timeframe, came over here in 2014. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk Those were also my first weather forums. Probably back in 07. That place could get a bit interesting at times, to say the least. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 16 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: Ha, those were my first weather forums, we probably interacted at some point! I met John there around 2008-2009 I think. I started on the AccuWeather forums around 2000ish. For some reason I thought you were there too. Were any of you on those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 12 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: I think I'm cautiously optimistic here...only thing I haven't liked today was the GEFS has cut totals every run since 6z, but that could be more smoothing as we draw closer (or at least I hope so) I haven't looked at the panels but would assume as we get closer some massive outlier runs start going away. It's also going beyond their useful phase imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Not to derail the thread but I remember the Accuweather days quite well! That is where it all started for me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Not to derail the thread but I remember the Accuweather days quite well! That is where it all started for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Toots Weather Forum was a good one for east TN snow homerism. Toot could hug a snowy model till the end. Toot was apparently a little abrasive in various weather communities and died tragically young. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 8 minutes ago, John1122 said: I haven't looked at the panels but would assume as we get closer some massive outlier runs start going away. It's also going beyond their useful phase imo. Yeah once we hit 48 hrs I normally stop using them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Sadly, I think MRX will go with WSW for the entire CWA except Hamilton, Bradley, and Polk Counties. I think this one is going to be quite painful for SE TN snow lovers to watch. Likely to be the only area in the state shut out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricaneguy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Not feeling so good about this one in upper East TN. Looks like the sharp cutoff line of snow will be just west of us unless things begin to change soon. I'm hoping 3-5'' before the event is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, Bigbald said: Toots Weather Forum was a good one for east TN snow homerism. Toot could hug a snowy model till the end. Toot was apparently a little abrasive in various weather communities and died tragically young. We should make a banter thread about historical weather forums. There's a lot that could be said lol. RIP Toot. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 11 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: Sadly, I think MRX will go with WSW for the entire CWA except Hamilton, Bradley, and Polk Counties. I think this one is going to be quite painful for SE TN snow lovers to watch. Likely to be the only area in the state shut out. Think it will be I-40 and north for the valley, all plateau/mountains. They will probably hold off on Southern valley unless there is some changes across all the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Think it will be I-40 and north for the valley, all plateau/mountains. They will probably hold off on Southern valley unless there is some changes across all the models. They would be foolish to leave out Meigs and Rhea at this point. That just leaves the southern border counties. I wish I could say I've never seen that before, but sadly I have. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 NAM is rolling 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Just now, TellicoWx said: Think it will be I-40 and north for the valley, all plateau/mountains. They will probably hold off on Southern valley unless there is some changes across all the models. With the new criteria, I think everyone probably gets the Winter Storm Watch, ironically, I've got less chance as of now than other areas because criteria is different here it looks like 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 35 minutes ago, John1122 said: I started on the AccuWeather forums around 2000ish. For some reason I thought you were there too. Were any of you on those? Me....and ole JB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 With the new criteria, I think everyone probably gets the Winter Storm Watch, ironically, I've got less chance as of now than other areas because criteria is different here it looks like Agree especially considering portions of Hamilton county is consistently 3" or higher even if chatty isn't.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 11 minutes ago, John1122 said: With the new criteria, I think everyone probably gets the Winter Storm Watch, ironically, I've got less chance as of now than other areas because criteria is different here it looks like You can issue a WSW outside the window,but i think most mets frown on it,who ever issued it must feel pretty comfident 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 With the new criteria, I think everyone probably gets the Winter Storm Watch, ironically, I've got less chance as of now than other areas because criteria is different here it looks like I don’t understand the new criteria, or the thinking behind changing it. It doesn’t change the outcome regardless what products they put out. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I don’t understand the new criteria, or the thinking behind changing it. It doesn’t change the outcome regardless what products they put out. . They determined that it takes less snow to cause major problems in the Southern and Central Valley of the Eastern areas vs the Plateau/Mountains. Here they seem to have done away with the 6 inches/24 hours requirement. There's also forecaster discretion as Jax noted. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 16 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Agree especially considering portions of Hamilton county is consistently 3" or higher even if chatty isn't. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk Historically, MRX considers Hamilton county to mean Chattanooga. They won't issue advisories or warnings if the event only affects Lookout and Signal mountains for example. I don't see them doing anything differently this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 They determined that it takes less snow to cause major problems in the Southern and Central Valley of the Eastern areas vs the Plateau/Mountains. Here they seem to have done away with the 6 inches/24 hours requirement. There's also forecaster discretion as Jax noted. I feel like typically in and around Knoxville it takes more than 2 or 3 inches to cause any problems unless we are dealing with temps closer to 20 degrees. 75% of the time we end up with more QPF from brine than Mother Nature. . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: Historically, MRX considers Hamilton county to mean Chattanooga. They won't issue advisories or warnings if the event only affects Lookout and Signal mountains for example. I don't see them doing anything differently this time. It'll be interesting to watch the Friday storm unfold for that area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Historically, MRX considers Hamilton county to mean Chattanooga. They won't issue advisories or warnings if the event only affects Lookout and Signal mountains for example. I don't see them doing anything differently this time.Yeah I think that is a serious problem. Though I wasn't really referring to the plateau sections vs city but that also, most modeling has shown a huge difference from state line, which close to 40 miles from Birchwood in northern Hamilton on Meigs border. Similar for Meigs itself large differences across the roughly 40 miles from Birchwood on the Hamilton county line to Ten Mile on the Roane line. I've always hated that generally only tornado warnings and flood advisories seem to be the only products issued granularly with the exception of splitting the mountain counties by elevation which they do. 40 miles from one side to the other of a county can be very different in terms of weather conditions.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 Not sure what's going on with Pivatol and the NAM. It's like it's showing virga as snow output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Nam is going more north it seems right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 The NAM is more confusing than it's 18z run just by how the precip field meanders around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, John1122 said: The NAM is more confusing than it's 18z run just by how the precip field meanders around. Plateau gets hammered by that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: Plateau gets hammered by that run Yeah, the whole mid-state above the bottom tier of counties does. It was odd, I had 20dbz+ returns on there for something like 12 hours before getting to an inch. Then the model depicted 30 dbz for 3 hours and I went to 5 inches. I'm going to chaulk it up as continued NAM being the NAM at range for that odd evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Still more to go in east TN but not much probably, 00z NAM: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now