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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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I creep on your thread because the discussion is always so good and in-depth. Just wanted to drop in and say I’m happy for you guys. Reel these storms in and take plenty of pics for your brethren east of the Apps that can’t make a thing happen.  

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Our system is currently working through the Pacific Northwest.  Portland Oregon getting snow, sleet, and rain from this system.  Almost the entire state of Oregon is under some form of winter weather watches and warnings.  Idaho is more of the same with a large swath of blizzard warnings there as well.  

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I creep on your thread because the discussion is always so good and in-depth. Just wanted to drop in and say I’m happy for you guys. Reel these storms in and take plenty of pics for your brethren east of the Apps that can’t make a thing happen.  

628e17fbb4710ad1d34862c8232f9a36.png


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9 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Cove Mtn MRX just reported a 105 Mph gust with sustained winds of 62 Mph.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

The wind gusts out of TRI are gonna be crazy I think.  We had a gust go thread a couple of hours ago, and we could hear things just breaking.  But yeah, Cove scored a huge wind gust.  Hoping @fountainguy97gets some video in the obs thread.  He was at Camp Creek.

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49 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Starting to see Morristown releasing graphics with higher totals now. Even Chatty bump to 30% of 2" or more.

Just posted on their FB feed:4ed95f333940a628d90c74391a8d0a75.jpg

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Pretty big threat if they are posting graphics suggesting two inches in the valley this far out. 

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58 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Starting to see Morristown releasing graphics with higher totals now. Even Chatty bump to 30% of 2" or more.

Just posted on their FB feed:4ed95f333940a628d90c74391a8d0a75.jpg

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk


 

Funny they say travel impacts mainly in higher elevations. lol.   Temps say everywhere. 

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LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 323 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

Key Messages:

1. Probability for an accumulating snow Monday into Tuesday is
increasing. Differences in amounts are still significant, however.

2. Very cold temperatures in the wake of the potential snow. Single
digit temperatures and near or subzero wind chill possible Wednesday
morning.

3. Additional wintry system possible late next week, details highly
uncertain.

Discussion:

A rather uneventful start to the period, other than the weather will
be cold with a biting wind. The awkward bit is Sunday will be one of
the warmer days of the week. A strong jet streak will pass to our
north on Monday heading into the Mid-Atlantic, and below that
isentropic lift will draw moisture northeastwards into East
Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Guidance seems pretty consistent
in showing thermal profiles very favorable for snow, with
temperatures throughout the vertical profiles being supportive of an
all snow event. The biggest question continues to be how much QPF we
see. 12z Euro shifted more towards the GFS today, with the GFS still
being aggressive with QPF, and thus snowfall. With us stepping
closer in time, ensemble probabilities of accumulating snowfall are
increasing, a good sign for snow lovers.

Sunrise Monday will probably be dry, with perhaps some virga visible
from the clouds as the lower levels of the atmosphere are modeled to
be quite dry. Caution will be to not let this fool you, as once the
atmosphere can saturate, snow will be able to begin falling to the
surface daytime on Monday. With cold temperatures Sunday night, any
marginal daytime high on Monday should give way to subfreezing
temperatures. Apart from still substantial QPF differences within
the guidance, one of the components will be how long the snow
persists into Tuesday, with the most recent guidance keeping snow
showers into early Tuesday morning.

Past the snow, the big headline will be the frigid temperatures
moving in. Both the Euro and GFS are modeling H85 temperatures below
the 10th percentile from Nashville sounding climatology Wednesday
morning in association with the passage of an upper trough. With the
influence of the snowpack, ultimate low temperatures will be
dependent on snow cover and cloud cover, with potential for single
digit lows. Factoring in any level of a breeze, and wind chills can
be knocked even lower, closer to zero in the valley. We`ll enter a
slight warmup getting back above freezing on Thursday, but an
approaching trough in the long range guidance signals another bout
of both troublesome precipitation and another shot of severe cold.
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RGEM and ICON are less amped and letting the snow spread eastward faster than the NAM. 

I wonder how much, if any is the ongoing storm complicating the mods? I would feel much better about the situation at this point if half of the EC wasn’t dealing with this dynamic system.


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