BooneWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I creep on your thread because the discussion is always so good and in-depth. Just wanted to drop in and say I’m happy for you guys. Reel these storms in and take plenty of pics for your brethren east of the Apps that can’t make a thing happen. 10 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Our system is currently working through the Pacific Northwest. Portland Oregon getting snow, sleet, and rain from this system. Almost the entire state of Oregon is under some form of winter weather watches and warnings. Idaho is more of the same with a large swath of blizzard warnings there as well. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I creep on your thread because the discussion is always so good and in-depth. Just wanted to drop in and say I’m happy for you guys. Reel these storms in and take plenty of pics for your brethren east of the Apps that can’t make a thing happen. . 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 There’s a 20 degree difference between the Gatlinburg summit web cam 48° 3k feet and New Found Gap 29° 5k feet and heavy snow. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Starting to see Morristown releasing graphics with higher totals now. Even Chatty bump to 30% of 2" or more.Just posted on their FB feed:Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 21 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: . Unfortunately I live in the foothills, so Mt. Mitchell pulls off many things I can’t 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Looks like OHX put out a map that halves the totals shown on the NBM. Generally they have around 2 inches for the mid-state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Actually that map was today before the 12z suite went full Snowmeiser. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The Euro Ens were just a slightly lighter mirror image of the OP. So it seems it has good agreement with its ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Cove Mtn MRX just reported a 105 Mph gust with sustained winds of 62 Mph.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 9 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Cove Mtn MRX just reported a 105 Mph gust with sustained winds of 62 Mph. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk The wind gusts out of TRI are gonna be crazy I think. We had a gust go thread a couple of hours ago, and we could hear things just breaking. But yeah, Cove scored a huge wind gust. Hoping @fountainguy97gets some video in the obs thread. He was at Camp Creek. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 49 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Starting to see Morristown releasing graphics with higher totals now. Even Chatty bump to 30% of 2" or more. Just posted on their FB feed: Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk Pretty big threat if they are posting graphics suggesting two inches in the valley this far out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Phone has been ringing all day here. About 75% of them have been to file a claim. I need a vacation. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 58 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Starting to see Morristown releasing graphics with higher totals now. Even Chatty bump to 30% of 2" or more. Just posted on their FB feed: Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk Funny they say travel impacts mainly in higher elevations. lol. Temps say everywhere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: Funny they say travel impacts mainly in higher elevations. lol. Temps say everywhere. Just trying to get everyone's attention in advance. "mainly in the higher elevations" is a very safe phrase to use. JMO. lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The 18z NAM is starting the party off right with a nice NW trend lol. Here we go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The NAM went full UKIE that run and blanked the East. Angle of precip is very steep and it just sits over the mid-state and western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18z NAM seemed slower and setup the main band through west TN, north Nashville, & into Kentucky. Precip doesn't even make it to East TN by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The track on the NAM is actually great and it makes no sense that East Tennessee is in such an epic dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Wurbus said: 18z NAM seemed slower and setup the main band through west TN, north Nashville, & into Kentucky. Precip doesn't even make it to East TN by the end of the run. Great run for the NAM for Nashville area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The NAM didn't agree with itself that run, the 32k/12k/3k are all different with their precip orientation/location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 We are still going to see some weird runs with every mod but the foundation has been laid, especially with MRX getting on board. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 To be honest, I’d rather not have MRX on board. We tend to get our best snows when they decide to put out adversaries after we already have several inches of snow on the ground. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 323 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024 Key Messages: 1. Probability for an accumulating snow Monday into Tuesday is increasing. Differences in amounts are still significant, however. 2. Very cold temperatures in the wake of the potential snow. Single digit temperatures and near or subzero wind chill possible Wednesday morning. 3. Additional wintry system possible late next week, details highly uncertain. Discussion: A rather uneventful start to the period, other than the weather will be cold with a biting wind. The awkward bit is Sunday will be one of the warmer days of the week. A strong jet streak will pass to our north on Monday heading into the Mid-Atlantic, and below that isentropic lift will draw moisture northeastwards into East Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Guidance seems pretty consistent in showing thermal profiles very favorable for snow, with temperatures throughout the vertical profiles being supportive of an all snow event. The biggest question continues to be how much QPF we see. 12z Euro shifted more towards the GFS today, with the GFS still being aggressive with QPF, and thus snowfall. With us stepping closer in time, ensemble probabilities of accumulating snowfall are increasing, a good sign for snow lovers. Sunrise Monday will probably be dry, with perhaps some virga visible from the clouds as the lower levels of the atmosphere are modeled to be quite dry. Caution will be to not let this fool you, as once the atmosphere can saturate, snow will be able to begin falling to the surface daytime on Monday. With cold temperatures Sunday night, any marginal daytime high on Monday should give way to subfreezing temperatures. Apart from still substantial QPF differences within the guidance, one of the components will be how long the snow persists into Tuesday, with the most recent guidance keeping snow showers into early Tuesday morning. Past the snow, the big headline will be the frigid temperatures moving in. Both the Euro and GFS are modeling H85 temperatures below the 10th percentile from Nashville sounding climatology Wednesday morning in association with the passage of an upper trough. With the influence of the snowpack, ultimate low temperatures will be dependent on snow cover and cloud cover, with potential for single digit lows. Factoring in any level of a breeze, and wind chills can be knocked even lower, closer to zero in the valley. We`ll enter a slight warmup getting back above freezing on Thursday, but an approaching trough in the long range guidance signals another bout of both troublesome precipitation and another shot of severe cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The NAM at range........beware to all. It is almost always overly amped. If I could pick a model which is often undependable after hour 48, it is that one. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 RGEM and ICON are less amped and letting the snow spread eastward faster than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 RGEM looks like it's gonna be another big run. It's locked and loaded back towards Memphis and it should head across the entire area almost. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 RGEM and ICON are less amped and letting the snow spread eastward faster than the NAM. I wonder how much, if any is the ongoing storm complicating the mods? I would feel much better about the situation at this point if half of the EC wasn’t dealing with this dynamic system. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Good run by the RGEM and realistic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Still snowing East of the Plateau at this point. Some sleet down towards Chattanooga. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now