Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The 12z EPS ensembles are split between the more NW path, the path directly across the state, and the more southerly path shown at 12z. If the Euro is right, northern MS, northern AL, and Chattanooga are in the ballgame. Good trends for them. Chattanooga has certainly waited a long time for some snow. If they get it, I will be super happy for them! The 12z EPS does lend some support to the operational. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 47 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Looks like the storm moving through tomorrow has trended north just going by the SPC severe weather forecast . Why you should not trust anything especially next week To many moving parts and the storm itself isnt even on the west coast yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 National Weather Service Nashville TN 210 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday Night) Issued at 203 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 If you stepped outside, you`d think it was March. 50s across the board this afternoon and with plenty of sun and a little breeze, I think we`ve been able to mix down some of the dry air we saw in this morning`s 12Z OHX sounding. Dew points have struggled to get to 30 degrees across the northern 2/3 of the mid-state. In any event, if you haven`t been able to get out and enjoy today, give `er a try. Things will go downhill quickly starting tonight. By midnight tonight, a very sharp trough over the center of the country will develop a surface low near Arklatex that is expected to bomb out as it moves into the Ohio Valley tomorrow afternoon. This is going to cause a multitude of issues across the region, from severe weather to extremely strong gradient winds. Let`s start with the gradient winds, because in my estimation, this is going to cause the biggest problems. Winds will start to ramp up by midnight tonight, especially for our counties west of I-65. By sunrise, as our Wind Advisory goes into affect, southeast gusts of 30-45 mph will likely be occurring across the whole area. Peak gust time looks to be in the noon to 3 pm time frame. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph with occasional gusts to 55 mph are going to be possible. Much discussion was had about the potential for issuing a High Wind Warning, however, in coordination with most surrounding offices, we`ve held off on issuing that product and stuck with a very high-end Wind Advisory. In any event, these winds are going to cause downed trees and scattered power outages across Middle TN. The stink about this is the cold air that filters in behind the system. It`s not the coldest of what we`re going to see in the next 4-6 days, but if you don`t have power, it`s going to feel like it. Be sure to pay extra special attention to vulnerable populations tomorrow. On top of the gradient winds, there is at least a low-end severe weather threat. We talked about this yesterday and honestly, not much has changed. Our warm sector GREATLY struggles to develop tomorrow morning with dew points barely reaching 50 degrees. This is going to keep CAPE values at 100 J/Kg or lower. Now, if we do end up getting a bigger push of dew points, then yes, the severe threat will go up -- and with helicity values where they are, we can`t ignore the possibility of an isolated spin-up. The more likely scenario is the potential for any convection to enhance the straight line wind threat that we already have, even outside thunderstorms. Look for a weak line of convection to start moving across the TN River mid-morning tomorrow and it should exit the Plateau around 3-5 pm in the afternoon. Strap in. We`re not done yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 ooops,left that out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 The Euro had one job to do with the other models improving so drastically. So of course... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 203 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 So we get beyond tomorrow, and again, let`s not look past tomorrow, as the wind threat is likely to cause significant impacts, but then we have to start looking at the snow potential Sunday night into the first half of the week. Models are still not in great agreement regarding how this is going to unfold. I think I can say, we`re still very confident it`s going to snow Sunday night. Placement of the highest amounts still look like they are going to be along and north of I-40, especially in the Land Between the Lakes area. However, now the latest suite of models wants to stretch out the snow potential from not just Sunday night, but into Monday and Tuesday, as well. Sunday night into Monday would have the higher totals, but a secondary wave could bring additional snow to the area, especially east of I-65 on Tuesday. On the whole, the probability of exceeding 1 inch anywhere in Middle TN is something like 60-80% across most of the area. But as we start talking about the potential for anyone getting 3 inches or more (Winter Storm Warning criteria), now we`re falling into the 30-40% category and that`s been relatively consistent over the last couple of days. Hopefully by Saturday, we`ll have a better grasp on how things are looking for Sunday night into Monday. Now the cold. As the snow comes to an end, a CP airmass will drive into the mid-south and TN Valley. This is going to bring sub- freezing temperatures to the area for an extended period of time. Teens and single digits will be pretty common every morning next week, with Tuesday and Wednesday mornings looking the coldest. Low to mid single digits are still progged. Much like Sunday after the winds die down and colder air enters the picture, keeping an eye on vulnerable populations is going to be imperative mid-week as afternoon highs under 32 degrees look probable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, John1122 said: The Euro had one job to do with the other models improving so drastically. So of course... It would be a bummer if we dont get much of anything as active as this pattern has been as of late 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Big question is..."Is the Euro up to its old bias of holding too much back with 2nd = squash city?" *insert preferred cliff hangar music"...Stay tuned to tomorrow's adventure of "As the models flippity-flop to find out more. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Big question is..."Is the Euro up to its old bias of holding too much back with 2nd = squash city?" *insert preferred cliff hangar music"...Stay tuned to tomorrow's adventure of "As the models flippity-flop to find out more. That is a good point. The UKMET went to St Louis. The Euro went to Savannah. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: That is a good point. The UKMET went to St Louis. The Euro went to Savannah. Yeah this system should bring back many happy memories and old scars of model days from long ago...finally we have a good Ole fashioned thread the needle for glory or bust system lol...Funny how so much tech has changed in past 10-15 yrs, but here in the weather modeling world things have stayed the same. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Yeah this system should bring back many happy memories and old scars of model days from long ago...finally we have a good Ole fashioned thread the needle for glory or bust system lol...Funny how so much tech has changed in past 10-15 yrs, but here in the weather modeling world things have stayed the same. I noticed on the Euro that the blocking low in eastern Canada was maybe a bit more south and west. That interaction drove the boundary further south which in turn squashed the potential winter storm. That trend was noticeable early in the run. That was a big difference from 0z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The Euro had one job to do with the other models improving so drastically. So of course...I was thinking it would be a bigger red flag if the Euro and GFS were on the same page at this point. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 The ICON is going to be much better than it's previous runs but it was on the far NW envelope before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 Yep, the ICON is pretty great for most of the forum. But if all the other guidance makes the move it did, they'll look like the Euro. It's beginning to get into hi-res range and the RGEM looked like it was going to be a good run too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 ICON was GFSian in it's outcome. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I noticed on the Euro that the blocking low in eastern Canada was maybe a bit more south and west. That interaction drove the boundary further south which in turn squashed the potential winter storm. That trend was noticeable early in the run. At least we still have the storm tomorrow to run into and change up that big low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Not a true southern snow storm unless we get a half the board, cliff diving moment (only to get reeled back in)...like all the greats in the past had lol 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 I assume that all modeling must be verifying too cold lately. MRX states it's confident highs will be in the 30s on Monday and has my high at 34 degrees in the point forecast. No model besides the Canadian has me out of the 20s on Monday. Their current call is for the highest totals to be around 2 inches on the Northern Plateau and SWVA areas that border Kentucky. I guess the Euro spooked them. My forecast did change from snow showers wording to just snow wording. Which signifies confidence of a steady snow event in my experience. They did earlier discuss only issuing WWA advisory products for this event and with new criteria for warnings going down from 4 inches to 3 inches, them saying 2 inches makes sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Not a true southern snow storm unless we get a half the board, cliff diving moment (only to get reeled back in)...like all the greats in the past had lol Don't forget posting some long range hi-res precip output to get hopes up: 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: I assume that all modeling must be verifying too cold lately. MRX states it's confident highs will be in the 30s on Monday and has my high at 34 degrees in the point forecast. No model besides the Canadian has me out of the 20s on Monday. Their current call is for the highest totals to be around 2 inches on the Northern Plateau and SWVA areas that border Kentucky. I guess the Euro spooked them. My forecast did change from snow showers wording to just snow wording. Which signifies confidence of a steady snow event in my experience. They did earlier discuss only issuing WWA advisory products for this event and with new criteria for warnings going down from 4 inches to 3 inches, them saying 2 inches makes sense. Maybe going with a NBM approach? That seems common from WFOs at this range. NBM has always seemed very conservative to me for a supposedly blended model. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Don't forget posting some long range hi-res precip output to get hopes up:Hey anything sub 70 hours it's gospel! Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18z GFS is rolling. Time to spin the wheel of fortune. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The problem with the far northwest envelope models moving this way is they may be trending(passing) right on through. Those are big moves SE. I doubt they are done. We will know more by tomorrow AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 18z GFS is rolling. Time to spin the wheel of fortune. If the Euro is gonna get the dub, we will probably know on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 SLP in Canada is in a more true blocking position at 60. This should not be suppressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: If the Euro is gonna get the dub, we will probably know on this run. I think there may still be some shifts until the cutter works its way through by Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 HP is stronger this run over the top by just a hair...slight trend to Euro but it has room to turn NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18z GFS should hold serve with at least the first wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 This run has a chance to be good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Carvers Gap said: 18z GFS should hold serve with at least the first wave. Def looked good for western areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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