Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 And the 12z Euro is rolling... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Looking at the 12z suite at hr 84 it's clear the cmc and icon are holding/digging the trailing piece significantly more than the rest. I'd say they are the outlier right now idk if that's a bias but all others are really pretty close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 On 1/11/2024 at 5:51 PM, Carvers Gap said: And the 12z Euro is rolling... Expand Hoping not 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 So far a taller western ridge on the 12z Euro: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Hr 66 not much change with the ribbon of vort energy but the west coast vort max has trended much further east this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Should be a hair flatter at 90.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 At 96, it has room to come north...slightly less hp over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 On 1/11/2024 at 6:10 PM, Holston_River_Rambler said: So far a taller western ridge on the 12z Euro: Expand I wish it was a little bit taller, I wish it was a baller, I wish it had a girl that looked good I would call her. Sorry, that goes through my head every time a taller western ridge is mentioned. Carry on. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Looks suppressed on pressure maps at 117. I can't see the surface maps yet. High pressure quickly has built in over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 As far as I can tell the second wave is digging like the 6z control so far, further west and slower: 12z on the left, 0z on the right: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 On 1/11/2024 at 5:56 PM, Stovepipe said: Hoping not Expand Lived up to its name. Whew. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Kind of like the GFS at 12z yesterday. EDIT, 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 So we have: UK/CMC: Cranked Euro: OTS GFS: in the middle of the others...... Choose your own adventure...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 The Euro whiffs on the entire state. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 IMO that's an ok run. Little bit of an overtrend and then we tick back in the mid-range. Happens often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Let me edit my last comment....Chattanooga is oddly in the best place to score 1-2" of snow on that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 At least we still have one of the Euro machine learning models: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 On 1/11/2024 at 6:31 PM, Stovepipe said: Expand I was hoping for the TRI snow hole to fill in during this run....looks we still have some work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Is the euro right? Who knows? It’s definitely not the model that it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 I don't know. Euro looks pretty odd. I don't think it will be the ultimate solution, but certainly a possibility I guess. Still, one would have to think that even with limited precipitation, the snow totals would be higher. That is some cold air and will squeeze ever drop out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 At least we know the Euro ensembles would almost have to be better. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 On 1/11/2024 at 6:34 PM, Holston_River_Rambler said: At least we still have one of the Euro machine learning models: Expand AI is the new DGEX 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 On 1/11/2024 at 6:30 PM, Carvers Gap said: Let me edit my last comment....Chattanooga is oddly in the best place to score 1-2" of snow on that run. Expand Take some comfort in the knowledge that this has got to be the least likely eventual outcome based on past history. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 On 1/11/2024 at 6:53 PM, dwagner88 said: Take some comfort in the knowledge that this has got to be the least likely eventual outcome based on past history. Expand I honestly don’t know. I think you all have as good a chance as any. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 On 1/11/2024 at 6:53 PM, dwagner88 said: Take some comfort in the knowledge that this has got to be the least likely eventual outcome based on past history. Expand The reason I said “oddly,” is that this system has trended southward from northern KY to the mid-South in terms of snow axis. Ensembles have had solutions exactly where the Euro just went. It would not shock me to see this suppressed - that has been my main concern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 No idea If the Euro is right or wrong but if this was the euro from 5 years ago I would be more worried than I am. I still think we are a couple of runs away from being out of no man’s land and big swings tend to happen during this time. If a trend correction doesn’t happen in the next 24 I’d start to worry. Let’s not forget the last couple of rain events greatly over performed. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Looks like the storm moving through tomorrow has trended north just going by the SPC severe weather forecast . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 There’s a lot riding on how much thunder we get tomorrow. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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