Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[ILoveWinter]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol... certainly no shortage of adventure - if not 'entertainment'...

Yea tracking all the different model runs ahead of a potential snow storm is 50% of why I enjoy them lol. Though living in NYC, it usually ends in disappointment!

[WIN]

12 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning WIN. I go back to the 50’s and 60’s. A heavy snow warning was given for an anticipated 4 inches of snow. Early TV forecasts by Dave Garroway and Jack Lescoulie were Quite different from today. Stay, as always.

 

 

YeH, I go back to the 60s, memorywise. I grew up in Maryland, and yeah the same there. When we moved to NJ in the early 70s, it was Bob Harris, Frank Field an Tex Antoine.

Bob was real good IMHO. Too bad he held himself out as a Met, when he wasn't. Frank Field just followed the NWS, no disrespect to him at all 

Tex Antoine, well we know what happened.

[weatherpruf]

16 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning WIN. I go back to the 50’s and 60’s. A heavy snow warning was given for an anticipated 4 inches of snow. Early TV forecasts by Dave Garroway and Jack Lescoulie were Quite different from today. Stay, as always.

 

 

I always saw some of the older crowd here telling folks back in the aughts that they would have pissed on a spark plug in the 80's for an 8 inch storm.....I'm guessing these days there are a lot of wet spark plugs around.....

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, WIN said:

YeH, I go back to the 60s, memorywise. I grew up in Maryland, and yeah the same there. When we moved to NJ in the early 70s, it was Bob Harris, Frank Field an Tex Antoine.

Bob was real good IMHO. Too bad he held himself out as a Met, when he wasn't. Frank Field just followed the NWS, no disrespect to him at all 

Tex Antoine, well we know what happened.

Frank was an eye doctor, hence the Dr Frank Fields....making it sound like he was some sort of PhD in weather. Dude lived to 100. Even son Storm is retired at 76.

[MJO812]

Gfs more progressive and weaker

[MJO812]

Cmc big hit

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs more progressive and weaker

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc big hit

[HVSnowLover]

Seems there is discrepancy between the timing and which wave models are focusing on.  It seems to me if it's faster than the cold is less entrenched so less risk of surpression but more risk of too warm and if it's a later wave the cold is more entrenched and the risk is surpression. 

[Allsnow]

CMC would be fun 4-8 to sleet back to snow 

 

Definitely a colder run then more progressive then 00z 

[vegan_edible]

GFS gives us a small hit over night with the low that ends up back at the coast. we've seen this solution yesterday(?) at somepoint. i feel like the models are really struggling with this one. interested to see what the euro brings to the table, and im sure the gfs will change course by 18z lmao

[brooklynwx99]

the GFS still isn't really like the ECMWF. the evolution is the same as the 00/06z runs, but it's just less amped. doesn't do what the ECWMF does with the trough

[DenvilleCyclone]

It simply blows my mind that every winter the models are in different camps most of the time.  Doesn't matter if its La Nina, El Nino etc.  I follow the weather as a hobby and I love all types of weather but for some reason it seems like models do better and are in more agreement in the summer months with storms.  Not talking tropical systems, models have a widespread there. Either way when there are pending storms, my day job productivity goes way down.

[nsof]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc big hit

Temps in 20s for entirety of storm so likely more 12:1 or 15:1 ratios (Wish I put any stock in the CMC) 

[jdj5211]

57 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

who is even mentioning 4 - 8 ??? Walt says 1 -3 " right now which is being generous IMO

06Z GFS showed 4-8 on a 10:1 ratio map, 12Z CMC shows 8-10 on a 10:1 ratio map....

Temps would be crashing into the low 20s during the storm....10:1 ratio is fair, could be even higher. 

Can't understand how 1-3 is being generous out of this setup?

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

CMC would be fun 4-8 to sleet back to snow 

 

Definitely a colder run then more progressive then 00z 

It's more like at least 8-12 inches for most of the subforum. Maybe a little sleet mixing in but temps never go above 30. Either way it's definitely the most amped of any model currently and is an outlier for now.

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

06Z GFS showed 4-8 on a 10:1 ratio map, 12Z CMC shows 8-10 on a 10:1 ratio map....

Temps would be crashing into the low 20s during the storm....10:1 ratio is fair, could be even higher. 

Can't understand how 1-3 is being generous out of this setup?

I said 1-3 is being generous until the EURO comes on board.......Walt started the 1-3 prediction at this point

 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I said 1-3 is being generous until the EURO comes on board.......Walt started the 1-3 prediction at this point

 

The euro is not what it used to be. This could go either way. 

[HVSnowLover]

8 minutes ago, DenvilleCyclone said:

It simply blows my mind that every winter the models are in different camps most of the time.  Doesn't matter if its La Nina, El Nino etc.  I follow the weather as a hobby and I love all types of weather but for some reason it seems like models do better and are in more agreement in the summer months with storms.  Not talking tropical systems, models have a widespread there. Either way when there are pending storms, my day job productivity goes way down.

Yea the differences between the Euro and CMC are pretty laughable and it's not even fantasy range anymore. We are talking like 96 hours out on the CMC the storm would start.

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It's more like at least 8-12 inches for most of the subforum. Maybe a little sleet mixing in but temps never go above 30. Either way it's definitely the most amped of any model currently and is an outlier for now.

Completely misssed my point, but okay 

[MJO812]

Another storm to watch out for next weekend 

[HeadInTheClouds]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I said 1-3 is being generous until the EURO comes on board.......Walt started the 1-3 prediction at this point

 

Walt said 1-3 because he was worried about possible mixing issues along the coast on the 00z CMC. 12z was further east and colder. 

[Allsnow]

CMC and gfs say nyc approaches climo snowfall by the end of next week 

[HVSnowLover]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Completely misssed my point, but okay 

Was your point that it is colder? 

[HVSnowLover]

8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Walt said 1-3 because he was worried about possible mixing issues along the coast on the 00z CMC. 12z was further east and colder. 

Despite what we have seen the past few winters I'm more worried about OTS than mixing with this storm. The only way I can see temps/precip type an issue if the storm comes in really fast and amped like the CMC before the cold is entrenched.

[MJO812]

Ukie

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Despite what we have seen the past few winters I'm more worried about OTS than mixing with this storm. The only way I can see temps/precip type an issue if the storm comes in really fast and amped like the CMC before the cold is entrenched.

Yes, at this point I would agree with that. 

[Allsnow]

Ukmet further west. 3-6 from nyc west 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The main difference between the less amped 12z CMC and the more amped 0z is the TPV near James Bay pressing harder at the 12z. So the TPV press isn’t allowing the vort to dig as much near Iowa. So without the vort digging more near Iowa the Southeast ridge is flatter allowing a more offshore track. These model disputes even this close in are typical when we have strong blocking and vorts rotating around the TPV near James Bay. I can remember reading many WPC discussions mentioning poor sampling in these regions leading to model errors. So I think to strike a balance between the warmer previous CMC runs and the completely suppressed Euro we would need a thread the needle. Where we get a perfect compromise between suppressed and overamped. This would allow the great jet dynamics to enhance the snowfall on the NW corner of the precip shield without the low tucking in too close. 
 

0z weaker TPV press near James Bay

 

12z harder TPV press near James Bay

 

 

 

Outside the euro every model Gives nyc accumulation next week 

[HVSnowLover]

Ukie beat out the CMC for more amped. The differences between the Ukie and Euro are incredible for 96 hours out.