Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[mannynyc]

Euro is better but still basically OTS

[SI Mailman]

Euro is gonna be out to sea

[kingbaus]

Well that sucked.

[Snowlover11]

lmao. man the bridges!

[RU848789]

Impossible to know what's going to happen, but I'd rather be in the camp with 3 of the 4 major global models than one, even if that one is the Euro - the best model by a bit, not by an overwhelming amount (and that accuracy is not measure on performance with east coast cyclones - I'd love to see that though).  

[mannynyc]

[snobal]

i  wouldnt  worry  too much  about the   euro  it  is not  king  anymore

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, mannynyc said:

At 120 hrs that’s a surprisingly wide spread for the euro. 

[SnoSki14]

It's going to snow trust me. At least 3-6, maybe more. Don't care what Euro shows right now. 

[snowman19]

The Euro is still the best model we have, especially given that it excels during southern branch dominated Ninos. I think that solution is absolutely believable given how fast the southern branch shortwave is moving and the incoming trough acts as a kicker making everything progressive. Everything gets pushed OTS. On the bright side for those who have been wanting cold,  it does finally get truly arctic cold on 1/20 after a strong clipper FROPA, which has some snow with it. The Euro brings a piece of the TPV over us.
 

IMO ride the Euro like sea biscuit….

[Roger Smith]

Euro also on its own in Europe at similar time scale, brings a fairly big chunk of subtropical low near Azores in towards France at a higher latitude (49-50 vs 45) than other models, difference is about the same (200-300 miles). So in general Euro is currently analyzing all of Atlantic basin differently from rest of big four. 

I don't like to ride any of the when they are solo against the field. So I would pick GFS and ignore possibly too warm Gem solution. Euro found progression bias, Gem found retrograde bias. Again, GFS is middle solution. GFS cannot bust as bad as Euro or Gem. 

[MJO812]

Gefs shifted west

[wdrag]

The Canadian is my winter model of choice for big snow axis. Yes it can be wrong.  I agree with Roger... the Euro is out on its own.  So we/I have to make forecasts and can't worship one model as almighty.  Odds are the EC will be too weak.

Lets forget Feb ahead,  and enjoy the extremes of winter storms that have been presented to us the first 20 days of January here in the eastern USA.

Amazing how fast the power problems of Tuesday were resolved in the USA. Excellent work by the power companies!

Kind of rough near BUF and MKC for the playoff games this weekend, unless they've been moved?

For me, there is little doubt now that a widespread news making hazardous winter event will spread from the Ohio Valley across the I95 megalopolis but impacts still in doubt.  I myself think widespread delays and cancels are coming. NYC-LI probably 1-3" of snow as I see it but could be wrong- rain factor as I buy the much closer to the coast scenario hooking onto the oncoming cold front dropping down Sunday-Monday.  That's Don's stats and some of the modeling am seeing.  

I84: besides looking pretty good for a powdery snowfall Tuesday-early Wednesday, I like the RGEM idea of 1" of snow with a preceding cold frontal passage this Sunday.  

Timing of GEFS storm is a little slower than what I think will occur and storm focus should be, imo, 09z Tue-09z Wed. Uncertainty on timing. 

Adding a bunch of graphics.. btw: 06z GEFS even heavier than its 00z version.  View these as ideas-NOT gospel.

I like WPC dark green (30-49%) axis as the winter hazard concern.   06zGEFS positive snow depth through early Wednesday which includes the stuff from tonight through the weekend. The idea is show how extensive this will be south of 40N. The 24 hour prob 4" from the GEFS, CMCE  and last the EC prob for 4" is lightest. CMCE surprisingly far east. 

I'll check back tonight.  If the future Canadian loses it... then all this is for naught for me. I maintain in large scale synoptic situations here in the northeast...if the Canadian doesn't have it... its an unlikely event. Canadian ia slightly warmer model and you adjust the edges but it's a solid model. 00/12 NAEFS now taking a solid .4" qpf  back ti the Delaware River. 

[North and West]

Finally going to snow. 

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[North and West]

The Euro is still the best model we have, especially given that it excels during southern branch dominated Ninos. I think that solution is absolutely believable given how fast the southern branch shortwave is moving and the incoming trough acts as a kicker making everything progressive. Everything gets pushed OTS. On the bright side for those who have been wanting cold,  it does finally get truly arctic cold on 1/20 after a strong clipper FROPA, which has some snow with it. The Euro brings a piece of the TPV over us.
 
IMO ride the Euro like sea biscuit….

.

[the_other_guy]

just remember last week when many of you were saying you want this look suppressed and out to sea when you’re several days out.

 

 

[Nibor]

10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

just remember last week when many of you were saying you want this look suppressed and out to sea when you’re several days out.

 

 

The GFS not the Euro

[North and West]

I agree with Walt that the Euro is probably too suppressed. We have seen these issues pop up since one of the upgrades around 2014 or 2015. The Euro had a great run with East Coast storm tracks from Sandy to Nemo. But something changed around 2014 or 2015. It’s either over amped at times like Jan 2015 or suppressed like Feb 2021. Plus there have been other suppression examples where the model suddenly corrects NW in the short term to match the consensus. That being said, the GEM and UKMET are pretty amped up at this range. So my concern at this point is more later runs ticking NW and presenting warmer solutions along the immediate coast than an outright suppression scenario. But we will see since there is no rush to get the exact track of this one correct until the big cutter goes by to our north tomorrow. 

Recent years suppression case
 

This is an incredibly stupid question (from an incredibly stupid person), but why not just run it using the pre-2015 factors?

It feels like the difference between my 2021 and 2007 model year vehicles. Sometimes I like driving the older car more since there are fewer software aspects that need be involved.


.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

This is an incredibly stupid question (from an incredibly stupid person), but why not just run it using the pre-2015 factors?

It feels like the difference between my 2021 and 2007 model year vehicles. Sometimes I like driving the older car more since there are fewer software aspects that need be involved.


.

It seems to only have this suppressed issue for North America. I’m sure studies were done prior to releasing the upgrade where it scored better elsewhere in the world, or scored better in other aspects of the model’s performance to justify upgrading it. I guess a future upgrade would look at any issues with too suppressed here and fix it. But I’m definitely no expert in the tremendous work that goes into these things. 

[jr461]

Many had been saying (but seemed to have stopped) that until this weekend's cutter goes through the models wouldn't really have a credible grasp on how things may play out.  Is this still the case? 

[North and West]

The only stupid question is the one that isn’t asked. And please don’t call yourself stupid. I enjoy your posts. 
The Euro developed a nearly infallible reputation for East Coast storm tracks around 2012 and 2013. It’s only my guess that an upgrade after that period did something to it for EC storm tracks. I would love to have one of ECMWF crew join the forum so they can give us inside technical info about the model development process.

Thanks.

Using my car analogy and the modelogy that can occur here, my newer car, which features backup and side cameras, makes me lose the feel that I had growing up and driving using my mirrors. Basically, losing the touch I had with mirrors. Maybe the Euro, integrating the other aspects that have been mentioned, lost that feel around here.

Just my take.


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[ILoveWinter]

16 minutes ago, jr461 said:

Many had been saying (but seemed to have stopped) that until this weekend's cutter goes through the models wouldn't really have a credible grasp on how things may play out.  Is this still the case? 

I'm no expert but I wouldn't say the models are not credible now, only that both the passage of time and tonights storm will of course make things clearer. 

[Albedoman]

the pac buoy info is being ingested into the models the last two days. That will not be the case after tomorrow night. Everyone calm down.  The snow will come. Once the buoy info is gone and the LP is positioned in Canada,  the location of the LP along the coast will be clearly defined. 

[Yanksfan]

Any improvements with this mornings EURO 6Z run?

[Tatamy]

4 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Any improvements with this mornings EURO 6Z run?

EPS is still running.  06z OP run only goes out 90 hours so we are not yet within the range of the off hour runs.  That changes tomorrow.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

EPS is still running.  06z OP run only goes out 90 hours so we are not yet within the range of the off hour runs.  That changes tomorrow.

Eps is slightly worse and east

[the_other_guy]

my gut tells me if we miss this one New York City is going for another under 10 inch winter

this is the one for the winter be it timing, el nino history, set up, cold air.

 

[cleetussnow]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro is still the best model we have, especially given that it excels during southern branch dominated Ninos. I think that solution is absolutely believable given how fast the southern branch shortwave is moving and the incoming trough acts as a kicker making everything progressive. Everything gets pushed OTS. On the bright side for those who have been wanting cold,  it does finally get truly arctic cold on 1/20 after a strong clipper FROPA, which has some snow with it. The Euro brings a piece of the TPV over us.
 

IMO ride the Euro like sea biscuit….

Ima save this post.  

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Ima save this post.  

he called for no snow below 84 on the last one.

 

There’s a lot of science on here and there’s a lot of bias and agendas. You gotta start learning how people post (even if they are knowledgeable) and just stop reacting to every oscillation they have.

[Allsnow]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is slightly worse and east

Yeah, eps/euro being very stubborn with this Ots solution.