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Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)


wdrag
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6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Score a huge win for the NAM and the RGEM the two major mesoscale/regional models, as both models have been calling for significant freezing rain (ZR) since Sunday morning and generally weren't joined by the global models in predicting appreciable ZR until Monday morning or afternoon.  

Lets stop with the win/bust declarations until this is all over.

Obviously a dynamic situation here

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6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

What would they plow? You need salters for days like this. Roads are wet going to icy

My street was plowed no less than 4 times this morning between 4 am and 7 am. Ridiculous. 
 

roads are going to be an absolute nightmare later. Temps ticking down closer to 30 now with steady freezing rain. 

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4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

My street was plowed no less than 4 times this morning between 4 am and 7 am. Ridiculous. 
 

roads are going to be an absolute nightmare later. Temps ticking down closer to 30 now with steady freezing rain. 

Yep. Honestly it may not get any higher at all and we’re accreting. Models have temps dropping starting around 1pm. 

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My street was plowed no less than 4 times this morning between 4 am and 7 am. Ridiculous. 
 
roads are going to be an absolute nightmare later. Temps ticking down closer to 30 now with steady freezing rain. 
The roads here in Rockland are a nightmare already. Foe the first time I actually agree with them canceling school, regardless of how little actual snow OTG because the roads are extremely icy and only getting worse.
I've only seen 2 saltrucks go by since 5am

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

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So what happened meteorologically with this that it’s basically raining with temps in the 20’s for many. I’m assuming that means the upper levels are too warm? How did that happen when the storm started off so cold and with lots of cold air in place?

Curious and don’t know enough to explain. 

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Farmingdale dropped from 33-32 last hour, ISP at 33, but PNS around the airport at 32. Maybe a NAM win for the ZR. Lots of rain coming up the coast…could be power outages if we accrete all of that ice 

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10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Lets stop with the win/bust declarations until this is all over.

Obviously a dynamic situation here

It's a win because it's already verified for much of the area with every untreated surface around here covered in a glaze of ice and we're very likely to continue to see ZR for awhile anywhere along/close to the 95 corridor.  

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29 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

What would they plow? You need salters for days like this. Roads are wet going to icy

The palisades had more than enough snow to plow it earlier. As did 303, 59, parts of the thruway, and 202. 

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36 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Score a huge win for the NAM and the RGEM the two major mesoscale/regional models, as both models have been calling for significant freezing rain (ZR) since Sunday morning and generally weren't joined by the global models in predicting appreciable ZR until Monday morning or afternoon.  

Gfs way too cold in the mid levels as usual

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13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Farmingdale dropped from 33-32 last hour, ISP at 33, but PNS around the airport at 32. Maybe a NAM win for the ZR. Lots of rain coming up the coast…could be power outages if we accrete all of that ice 

It’s also lighter rain so it’s accreting more efficiently. Heavier rain would run off. 

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