Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[winterwx21]

  On 1/11/2024 at 6:30 PM, Stormlover74 said:

The usual back and forth

Expand  

Yep exactly. You knew the Euro wasn't gonna keep showing the snowstorm solution every run at this range (still 5 days out). All of the models will be flip flopping for awhile. At least we have good potential. If anything this Euro run should increase confidence that the warmer CMC solution is less likely to happen. I like where we are right now. 

[Brian5671]

  On 1/11/2024 at 6:32 PM, SBUWX23 said:

euro is just well offshore. The CMC is probably right though right? Lol, who knows whats gonna happen at this point. 

Expand  

maybe it develops the storm on the polar front and not the arctic front?

[Stormlover74]

  On 1/11/2024 at 6:33 PM, winterwx21 said:

Yep exactly. You knew the Euro wasn't gonna keep showing the snowstorm solution every since run at this range (still 5 days out). All of the models will be flip flopping for awhile. At least we have good potential. If anything this Euro run should increase confidence that the warmer CMC solution is less likely to happen. I like where we are right now. 

Expand  

Yeah though I would've expected the euro to show a hugger and the gfs to lose the storm

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/11/2024 at 6:32 PM, SBUWX23 said:

euro is just well offshore. The CMC is probably right though right? Lol, who knows whats gonna happen at this point. 

Expand  

why would the model with the least amount of skill level be right ?? - plus the CMC is not a total rain storm

[Allsnow]

Enough with the cmc… it’s trash model 

[SBUWX23]

  On 1/11/2024 at 6:36 PM, Allsnow said:

Enough with the cmc… it’s trash model 

Expand  

Yep, laughing at the calls its more right here. The key is we just dont know yet. There are so many variables at play here and this is where models struggle. No storm is just a real possibility as well as a storm. Gotta give it a few days at least. 

[Allsnow]

  On 1/11/2024 at 6:37 PM, SBUWX23 said:

Yep, laughing at the calls its more right here. The key is we just dont know yet. There are so many variables at play here and this is where models struggle. No storm is just a real possibility as well as a storm. Gotta give it a few days at least. 

Expand  

Yup. Need the next cutter to get out of the way first. Plus the cmc has been trending colder for the metro each run 

[Nibor]

Did the energy in sw canada mess this up?

[SnowGoose69]

  On 1/11/2024 at 6:41 PM, Nibor said:

Did the energy in sw canada mess this up?

Expand  

Yeah its highly possible it did to some degree

[NJwx85]

The initial Southern stream vort which will be the major key to this storm is way too fast on the Euro and why whatever storm develops is way out to sea. The incoming trough acts more like a kicker here.

[Yanksfan]

The Jan. 20th threat on the EURO is suppressed and OTS as well.

[Stormlover74]

Eps is a bit better than the op (couldn't have been worse)

[Allsnow]

Op drop the tpv over nyc. If you wanted cold then that run is for You 

[NJwx85]

  On 1/11/2024 at 7:00 PM, NutleyBlizzard said:

The Jan. 20th threat on the EURO is suppressed and OTS as well.

Expand  

Because you literally have a piece of the polar vortex dropping down. You would be looking at highs struggling to get much above 20 degrees even at the coast.

[SnowGoose69]

  On 1/11/2024 at 7:02 PM, Allsnow said:

Op drop the tpv over nyc. If you wanted cold then that run is for You 

Expand  

Yeah NYC would 100% be below 0 at 240 hours...that is about as good a setup as you get, air mass originates NNW and drops SSE and you have light NNW flow

[Brasiluvsnow]

  On 1/11/2024 at 4:18 PM, North and West said:

sun angle


.

Expand  

Beat me to it

[Brian5671]

  On 1/11/2024 at 7:02 PM, Allsnow said:

Op drop the tpv over nyc. If you wanted cold then that run is for You 

Expand  

Worthless...just static cling cold and bone dry

[nycwinter]

looking forward to spring and warm weather...

[cleetussnow]

word has it the EPS still has it

[NJwx85]

  On 1/11/2024 at 7:23 PM, Brian5671 said:

Worthless...just static cling cold and bone dry

Expand  

My idea of a perfect Winter is 60's and sunny with the occasional snow threat.

[vegan_edible]

i have a feeling the 12z euro op was just an incredibly suppressed solution this round, good to hear the EPS still has it. We're still far enough out where basically anything can happen

just pray its the 12z GFS solution 

[ILoveWinter]

  On 1/11/2024 at 7:43 PM, cleetussnow said:

word has it the EPS still has it

Expand  

Yea we really should only be looking at ensemble means at this early juncture. No use getting overly excited or upset over Ops runs 5-6 days out, especially as we wait for the friday night storm to clear out before we get a better picture of the finer details. 

[snowman19]

  On 1/11/2024 at 7:43 PM, cleetussnow said:

word has it the EPS still has it

Barely, nothing at all like yesterday. I thought this was the risk, suppression, OTS, not hug or inland run/cut. Same risk for 1/20 IMO

[mannynyc]

  On 1/11/2024 at 7:50 PM, snowman19 said:

Barely, nothing at all like yesterday. I thought this was the risk, suppression, OTS, not hug or inland run/cut. Same risk for 1/20 IMO

Expand  

[Nibor]

  On 1/11/2024 at 7:54 PM, mannynyc said:

Expand  

“Barely” lol that is a big spread though. 

[snowman19]

  On 1/11/2024 at 7:59 PM, Nibor said:

“Barely” lol that is a big spread though. 

Expand  

A 1006mb low well off shore doesn’t scream big snowstorm to me especially given where we were yesterday at 12z

[WestBabylonWeather]

You never wanna be in the zone a week out. Also the models may not be handling what happens after the cutter well. 

[Allsnow]

  On 1/11/2024 at 8:01 PM, snowman19 said:

A 1006mb low well off shore doesn’t scream big snowstorm to me especially given where we were yesterday at 12z

Expand  

It’s 4-5 days out still…

 

I

[SnowGoose69]

  On 1/11/2024 at 8:14 PM, WestBabylonWeather said:

You never wanna be in the zone a week out. Also the models may not be handling what happens after the cutter well. 

Expand  

 

More so in El Nino patterns or patterns with strong NATL blocking you'll tend to see changes from Day 5 inside than you otherwise would because the faster flow in other patterns is likely to mess things up but the big cutter yet to happen is likely something that will change the evolution 

[vegan_edible]

can someone explain to me why the cutter would change the track? i think i get it but also don't lmao