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Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
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BTW I really doubt LGA/NYC west ever go to rain, so -FZRA/PL unfortunately is likely, hopefully it will be light but if the coastal continues to tick a bit more  west and higher QPF makes its way in we could get a tenth of ZR...ideally we'd want to keep it sleet.  JFK east I think goes to rain but 030-050 winds on almost every high res model for LGA/NYC won't flip them to rain

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snowman19
snowman19

The Euro is still the best model we have, especially given that it excels during southern branch dominated Ninos. I think that solution is absolutely believable given how fast the southern branch shor

MJO812
MJO812

DT expects the models to trend west this weekend .

MJO812
MJO812

Miss snow

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
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Not sure why so much fretting over temps, cold air in place for once and not a particularly amped storm. Haven't followed all the details super closely with this one but seems like a general 2-4 inches for almost the whole subforum, maybe a bit more NW and a bit less SE but I don't think drastic differences.

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Tatamy

Tatamy

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

BTW I really doubt LGA/NYC west ever go to rain, so -FZRA/PL unfortunately is likely, hopefully it will be light but if the coastal continues to tick a bit more  west and higher QPF makes its way in we could get a tenth of ZR...ideally we'd want to keep it sleet.  JFK east I think goes to rain but 030-050 winds on almost every high res model for LGA/NYC won't flip them to rain

My rule of thumb from when I lived on LI (north shore) was for nothing higher than 065.  If you stayed on the lower side of that you were usually okay if the mid levels were good.

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winterwx21

winterwx21

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Euro looks similar to the 3km NAM. We could get 4 inches here. I would go a little more conservative and stick with the 2 to 4 forecast instead of increasing it to 3 to 5,  but there definitely is good potential to hit the high end. Excited that we're looking at a decent snow event! 

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jm1220

jm1220

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5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Temps don't seem to ever go above freezing on the Euro NW of around Central Queens. Could definitely see 34 and rain at JFK for a short time while 30 and ZR/Sleet CPK and LGA but I still think it's mostly snow for CPK and LGA.  

We're lucky there's so much precip before the warm air really arrives. Hopefully when that happens most of the storm is over. But regardless it's so hilarious to see another of these late big amped/NW pushes, which makes sense since we don't have any blocking to force a good track and the mean trough is so far west. The easterly winds will warm us up for a time east of the city. It can be as cold as it wants now but that wind shift warms us right up. But it will be brief. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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Euro has been too cold constantly last few years on marginal cases here in the metro...this one is not marginal at the surface but talking about how 925 is so close on most mesos unless we see the RGEM/NAM tick colder next 2 cycles I'd lean towards Euro likely being too cold again

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
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12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We're lucky there's so much precip before the warm air really arrives. Hopefully when that happens most of the storm is over. But regardless it's so hilarious to see another of these late big amped/NW pushes, which makes sense since we don't have any blocking to force a good track and the mean trough is so far west. The easterly winds will warm us up for a time east of the city. It can be as cold as it wants now but that wind shift warms us right up. But it will be brief. 

Yes LI will definiutely have a hard time staying snow in this setup and probably all of the island goes to plain rain briefly but could still be a typical 4 inch north shore 1 inch south shore scenario.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Yes LI will definiutely have a hard time staying snow in this setup and probably all of the island goes to plain rain briefly but could still be a typical 4 inch north shore 1 inch south shore scenario.

I'd be surprised if anyone did as bad as 1 inch outside of the east end.  I think most will be 2-3 in western LI on the south shore

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

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We're lucky there's so much precip before the warm air really arrives. Hopefully when that happens most of the storm is over. But regardless it's so hilarious to see another of these late big amped/NW pushes, which makes sense since we don't have any blocking to force a good track and the mean trough is so far west. The easterly winds will warm us up for a time east of the city. It can be as cold as it wants now but that wind shift warms us right up. But it will be brief. 
Re. 'we don't have any blocking', with all due respect the NAO is currently at about -1.5 according to CPC monitoring. It would be more accurate to say the blocking is not configured in a favorable way to keep the warm nose from surging in eventually along the coastal plain. But H5 anomalies and the teleconnection indices tell you all you need to know about whether there is any blocking.


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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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I said yesterday no storm reminded me of this one and said it seemed like an 80s storm...well on CIPS analogs, 1/18-1/19 1984 is probably closest match to this event...not exact but has similarities and is only thing close.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1984/us0118.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1984/us0119.php

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We're lucky there's so much precip before the warm air really arrives. Hopefully when that happens most of the storm is over. But regardless it's so hilarious to see another of these late big amped/NW pushes, which makes sense since we don't have any blocking to force a good track and the mean trough is so far west. The easterly winds will warm us up for a time east of the city. It can be as cold as it wants now but that wind shift warms us right up. But it will be brief. 

We’ll have a nice all snow event Friday. All good. 

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SBUWX23

SBUWX23

Posted
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1 minute ago, Picard said:

It's got to overcome some very low dewpoints too.  Probably a period of virga before the snow starts?

There is already light snow at KPHL. The dry air is being accounted for by the high res guidance. 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, cannoliman42 said:

Near a quarter inch of freezing rain for parts of LI and SNE. Could get nasty.

Yet no WWA for Suffolk. I would assume that changes soon

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