Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, psv88 said:

 NW Suffolk should be in WWA in my opinion but the criteria is 3” of snow so I get it. 

I’m close to the Nassau border so hopefully I do ok 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Any wobble can have a huge effect 

It's not a wobble. It's a cave. GFS was stingy with QPF inland for the entire event giving my area .1 or so qpf for days while nearly every other model in particular the mesos were giving significantly more. GFS just doing what it does. 

[snywx]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

It's not a wobble. It's a cave. GFS was stingy with QPF inland for the entire event giving my area .1 or so qpf for days while nearly every other model in particular the mesos were giving significantly more. GFS just doing what it does. 

3-5" incoming for the I-84 corridor. 

[psv88]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’m close to the Nassau border so hopefully I do ok 

All of Suffolk west of the forks will get at least an inch. I think you mix with rain for a bit, and I get some sleet/ice here

[Rjay]

18 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’m close to the Nassau border so hopefully I do ok 

Prob a couple inches changing to rain before sunrise

[Allsnow]

2-4 area wide… enjoy

 

 

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

2-4 area wide… enjoy

 

 

I’ll take it. And I *should* stay all snow so hopefully some time to play with my son and dog in it during the morning 

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

GFS/EURO horrible with this storm compares with NAM/RGEM, GFS basically has a coastal hugger at this point with significant precip...borderline warning storm for just inland 

Yeah people love to trash the NAM but it works really well when we have boundary layer issues as well as for big noreasters like Jan 2016.

I hope they have a good replacement for it.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Prob a couple inches changing to rain before sunrise

and changing back to snow? They are saying the change to rain will only last a couple of hours on News12 before it thumps back to snow and high winds for the afternoon and a rapid drop in temperatures.

[Northof78]

Final Prediction:

E LI: 1-2"
W LI/C NJ Coast: 1-3"
NYC/C NJ/NE NJ (inland): 2 - 4"
W NJ/ S NY State: 3 - 6"

[donsutherland1]

The 12z HREF 24 hour snowfall for the period ending 1/17 0z:

[ILoveWinter]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 12z HREF 24 hour snowfall for the period ending 1/17 0z:

Rare storm where all of the big cities from DC to Boston are in line for similar totals

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 12z HREF 24 hour snowfall for the period ending 1/17 0z:

Don do you think the Poconos will get 6-8 inches out of this?

[NorthShoreWx]

49 minutes ago, psv88 said:

 NW Suffolk should be in WWA in my opinion but the criteria is 3” of snow so I get it. 

NW Suffolk has a shot.  

[wdrag]

Am seeing some banding tomorrow but snow growth looks a little lackluster.  I probably wouldn't inflate this event past 5 inches for the I84 corridor-ABE, 

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don do you think the Poconos will get 6-8 inches out of this?

I’m thinking around 6”, but ratios should be high and the snow fluffy. Maybe the highest elevations will see 8”. 

[SBUWX23]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

NWS decided to leave Suffolk county out of the WWA 

Could still be added. 

[uofmiami]

10 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

NW Suffolk has a shot.  

I’m sure they’ll get 3”. I wouldn’t worry about being under the advisory really. We are getting measurable snow & it’s long overdue. 

[jm1220]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and changing back to snow? They are saying the change to rain will only last a couple of hours on News12 before it thumps back to snow and high winds for the afternoon and a rapid drop in temperatures.

I think those of us near the coast will be limited somewhat by rain/sleet given the late as usual amped trend but we get something decent before the changeover and most of it will be left at the end-not washed away. The best will be NW of the city. As I said yesterday our ceiling here is probably a 2-3” event before it becomes too amped. Hopefully we can get that thump before the warm air arrives and we just have some drizzle in the few hours it’s too warm. If it does rain it might just make what’s on the ground into cement when it cools back down. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I think those of us near the coast will be limited somewhat by rain/sleet given the late as usual amped trend but we get something decent before the changeover and most of it will be left at the end-not washed away. The best will be NW of the city. As I said yesterday our ceiling here is probably a 2-3” event before it becomes too amped. Hopefully we can get that thump before the warm air arrives and we just have some drizzle in the few hours it’s too warm. 

Yes I remember this happened in February 2008 and that storm mostly happened in the middle of the night too.  It ended as drizzle and we got around 6-8 inches.  It was a nice surprise storm.

[NorthShoreWx]

8 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

I’m sure they’ll get 3”. I wouldn’t worry about being under the advisory really. We are getting measurable snow & it’s long overdue. 

Snow is better than advisories 

[TriPol]

I have a weird gut feeling about this storm that it may overperform for the city and eastern nj. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

I have a weird gut feeling about this storm that it may overperform for the city and eastern nj. 

It's certainly possible and close to the bigger amounts 

[NorthShoreWx]

3k NAM soundings keep my location at or below freezing.  Snow, then some sleet, a few hours of mixed/freezing drizzle, then back to snow. 

About .5" liquid on the NAM.

Up to now, we've only had 1.2" of snow this season.

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

My feeling is that this storm will not over perform. There are two greatly inhibiting factors. The models projecting the most precip for the area develop the low pressure center very close to the area and vertical velocities are much lower than what we usually see for the NYC Metro Region to get over 2" of snow. CMC has us changing to rain at the end. But to me the first red flag, low vertical velocity numbers tell me the snow could be quite light.

WX/PT

[MJO812]

Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said:

My feeling is that this storm will not over perform. There are two greatly inhibiting factors. The models projecting the most precip for the area develop the low pressure center very close to the area and vertical velocities are much lower than what we usually see for the NYC Metro Region to get over 2" of snow. CMC has us changing to rain at the end. But to me the first red flag, low vertical velocity numbers tell me the snow could be quite light.

WX/PT

The ratios are going to be high at first.  

1-3 is a good call 

[psv88]

29/9, so this is a nice airmass for a change. Fridays airmass even better. 
 

we winter 

[SnowGoose69]

22 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I have a weird gut feeling about this storm that it may overperform for the city and eastern nj. 

 

These types of weaker events with overrunning can still bust pretty significantly on the high side, even today.  These ALWAYS busted 25 years plus ago because no models had the resolution to really resolve the lift/banding but even now the weaker events they can miss those types of nuances that the high res models capture in a case of stronger overrunning/WAA.  I am sure someone sees crazy amounts here where they stay all snow...near the city we'd need pretty solid banding overnight to go over 3-4 probably

[SBUWX23]

8 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

My feeling is that this storm will not over perform. There are two greatly inhibiting factors. The models projecting the most precip for the area develop the low pressure center very close to the area and vertical velocities are much lower than what we usually see for the NYC Metro Region to get over 2" of snow. CMC has us changing to rain at the end. But to me the first red flag, low vertical velocity numbers tell me the snow could be quite light.

WX/PT

Not sure I understand your take here. No one is expecting a blizzard. With all due respect there is plenty of thermal forcing for several hours to support the consensus forecast of 1-3 or 2-4 depending on location. City is in a good spot for 2-4. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

1-3” with a cold air mass. That’s winter. No complaints. Appetizer for Friday maybe even