Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[MJO812]

Just now, psv88 said:

We take 

I will take a dusting lol

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs

Nice improvement. 

[Allsnow]

When’s the last time the models got snowier as we got closer to an event? 

[WestBabylonWeather]

When was the last time Nashville TN got half a foot of snow and then it didn’t melt for days lol. Nice air mass 

[SBUWX23]

Its cold. Its cold ahead of this wave. Take what we can get! Even if us on LI have to deal with some slop, even 2 inches before it will be wonderful. Plus its not a torch and it gets cold and hopefully will stick around before Fridays potential! 

[HeadInTheClouds]

CMC 10:1 and Kuchera

 

[RU848789]

Will be interesting if we see advisories for the areas north of 195/276, roughly, that have a 3" criterion over 12 hours for an advisory, since the NWS isn't really predicting 3" or more for most - but, it's likely to be more impactful than a typical 2-3" snowfall, with snow easily accumulating with sub-32F temps right around the morning rush hour and the NWS often takes impact into account when issuing WWAs.  The counties with 2" advisory criteria would likely require WWAs and it would also look odd if only those counties had WWAs.  Don't want to confuse the public.  

[Stormlover74]

Href is nice 2 to 4 for most more to the west

[RU848789]

Euro and UK, since I'm sure folks are interested...

 

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
327 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

CTZ005>007-009-NJZ002-004-103-104-NYZ067>071-152200-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0002.240116T0300Z-240117T0000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
Southern Westchester-
327 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  2 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning or evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
327 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-176>179-152200-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0002.240116T0100Z-240116T1800Z/
Hudson-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
327 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  2 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
  York.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

[bluewave]

The Euro continues its suppression issues with East Coast storm tracks. Big NW correction from around 5 days out to the most recent model runs. Had the same issue with the previous storm where the heaviest snowfall totals shifted from around NYC NW back to Orange County NY. So either the actual low or the rain-snow line comes NW. Sometimes it’s just one and other times both.

 

 

 

 

[Irish]

Action Recommended

Execute a pre-planned activity identified in the instructions

Issued By

Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service

Affected Area

Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey

Description

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... WHAT...Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey. WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday. IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow expected this evening into tonight. A change over to mixed precipitation is likely Tuesday morning for more southeastern areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

[MJO812]

8 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Href is nice 2 to 4 for most more to the west

Nam also beefed up for everyone 

[snowman19]

Good forecast from the NWS….2-3 inches area wide. We have reached consensus 

[Allsnow]

EPS mean up to 3 inches 

[wdrag]

Looking good NYC for 1.5-3" and a little ice from a 12 to possibly 18 hour event.  

Persistence from mesoscale models suggests a band of 3-5" eastern PA up the I84 corridor including nw NJ but ice temps eastern CT northeastward. 

[NittanyWx]

On 1/12/2024 at 2:20 PM, NittanyWx said:

I suspect the Euro will end up getting sharper with the trough into Texas, which will likely amp any wave early next week in the East a bit more than it's doing currently.

 

See this often in tail end plains events where the Euro suite underdoes everything until very late.

 

 

As we see often with these plains systems, sharper trof leads to more tucked in track.

 

Expecting a lot of 2-4" with this one.

[North and West]

CPK with 0.97”


.

[RU848789]

A little surprised nobody posted the NWS snowfall maps, which show a general 2-4" snowfall with the higher end amounts (3-4") generally N of 276/195 and the lower end (2-3") south of there, although the lesser 2-3" amounts are also forecast from NYC eastward, presumably due to less precip.  The NWS is a little more bullish than the NBM, also below, although most of the 6Z models are showing 2-4".    

The most important message for most people, IMO, is that it will be all snow for the region through about sunrise on Tuesday with temps below 32F (in the mid/upper 20s except near the coast where temps will be closer to 32F), meaning snow will easily accumulate at night with cold temps, leading to very slippery roads everywhere for the Tues am rush hour, as all but treated/heavily traveled roads will likely be snow covered and visibility will be reduced; even the treated major roads will likely be a bit slushy with temps below 32F. Also, people should shovel by sunset on Thursday, especially if they get above 32F and/or get some rain/ZR, since the wet snowpack would then freeze solid after sunset and it's not forecast to go above 32F for most through at least Sunday.  

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Nam slightly south so far

 

[NittanyWx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro continues its suppression issues with East Coast storm tracks. Big NW correction from around 5 days out to the most recent model runs. Had the same issue with the previous storm where the heaviest snowfall totals shifted from around NYC NW back to Orange County NY. So either the actual low or the rain-snow line comes NW. Sometimes it’s just one and other times both.

 

 

 

 

This particular issue was a function of underdoing the upstream plains trough.  Something it has done during nearly every significant arctic outbreak into Texas over the past few years.  

 

As the model recognizes the depth of HP/cold closer in, track gets closer to the coast as pattern becomes more amplified.

[MJO812]

12k Nam is slightly colder and east with the low compared to 6z but still changes the coast over to some drizzle. 

 

 

 

3k Nam is colder than the 12k Nam.

[RU848789]

NAM looks good...

[MJO812]

3k Nam looks better lol 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

12k Nam is slightly colder and east with the low compared to 6z but still changes the coast over to some drizzle. 

 

 

 

3k Nam is colder than the 12k Nam.

3K especially is a nice little event for most with 4” in the city. If it changes to some drizzle at the end who cares since it will all turn to cement with the incoming cold anyway. It’ll be nice to have some snow cover with our cold airmass. 

[MJO812]

This looks great

[donsutherland1]

Light snow commenced in Baltimore just before 8:30. The snow will be marching slowly northward, reaching Philadelphia between 4 pm and 7 pm, Newark and New York City between 6 pm and  9 pm, and Bridgeport between 8 pm and 10 pm. It is possible that Central Park's streak without 1" daily snowfall could continue today, but the streak should be brought to an end by the storm with a general 1"-3" falling across the New York City Metro Area.

Latest EPS and NBE numbers: The snow is coming.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This looks great

Still a question of where that banding shows up. Other Hi-res modeling like the HRRR introduce more warm air and have the best snow NW of the city which is still quite possible. Models all do have at least 1-2” though so the ground will be white at least. 

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still a question of where that banding shows up. Other Hi-res modeling like the HRRR introduce more warm air and have the best snow NW of the city which is still quite possible. Models all do have at least 1-2” though so the ground will be white at least. 

Sucks we will mix but I think Friday delivers the goods for the city and east. Solid ensemble support now. Friday our chance for a 4+ storm.