Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[BoulderWX]

1-3” - I hope iM able to sleep tonight. At least it’s something. 

[the_other_guy]

38 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Would guess that most snow accumulation will happen tomorrow night and not on Tuesday morning/afternoon based on recent trends.

And that’s what you really want. You want this to fall at night to get maximum accumulation

[nycwinter]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

And that’s what you really want. You want this to fall at night to get maximum accumulation

sun angle effect...

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

If most falls at night they may actually get a semi accurate measurement at 7 am Tuesday morning in the Park. 
 

it would be nice for NYC to finally put this somewhat inaccurate, 1 inch snow drought off the table. 
 

 

[jm1220]

Good that the 1-3” sweet spot outcome looks most likely now for all. It’ll be like a HECS considering that for some there hasn’t been any real snow event since Jan 2022. And it should stick around for a while since cold air is coming behind the storm. 

[SnowGoose69]

HRRR is a tad more RGEM like than Euro like at 00Z

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

HRRR is a tad more RGEM like than Euro like at 00Z

Yup

 

[RU848789]

When was the last time we saw a model with NYC as the absolute bullseye. I know it's the HRRR late in its run, but damn, would be nice to see this verify.

 

[donsutherland1]

Things remain on track for a general 1"-3" snowfall tomorrow night and Tuesday. There is now a good consensus among the guidance. The coming snowfall will likely to end record streaks with less than 1" daily snowfall at Atlantic City, Baltimore, New York City (Central Park), Philadelphia, and Sterling. Snowfall ratios in New York City and nearby areas will generally be in the 9:1 to perhaps 12:1 range unlike with the January 6-7 storm where ratios were barely above 1:1 in the New York City area.

EPS and NBE Data:

WPC Probability of 24-Hour Snowfall of 1" or More:

WPC Probability of 24-Hour Snowfall of 2" or More:

Overall, the storm should only have minor impacts even as it will be the biggest snowfall in nearly two years in New York City and Philadelphia.

WPC's Winter Storm Severity Index:

[SBUWX23]

If these solutions with a warm nose/surface warming are correct for portions of LI, it looks brief. Its mainly after the bulk of the steady snow is pushing north. I guess you gotta sniff it to get into better snow as well. It appears to me that it will drop back below freezing shortly after it warms up. However, there may not be snow growth any more. The meat of this event is beginning to look like a Monday night/Tuesday Am thing. 

[kingbaus]

Nam might be a little intresting.

[kingbaus]

Good run

[cleetussnow]

We are getting mini nammed

[HeadInTheClouds]

Nam - I hate this model. 

 

[MJO812]

Getting juicer for many areas like the HRRR.

[MJO812]

HRRR has 3-5 for NYC and inland

[SnowGoose69]

I was trying to think of an event this reminds me of and I cannot think of one at all.  This is sort of a 1980s type snow event here which is probably why I cannot remember

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

HRRR has 3-5 for NYC and inland

Why are you using the HRRR at this range?

[Violentweatherfan]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Why are you using the HRRR at this range?

And with Kuchera snow map

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

And with Kuchera snow map

10:1 would also be wrong especially N and W when ratios could be 15:1. 

[SnowGoose69]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Why are you using the HRRR at this range?

 

It is not terribly different than either NAM...the HRRR beyond 12-18 I would avoid for convection or cases of warm air aloft with ZR/PL.  In this case though the changeover should be towards the tail end of the run and it shows a similar evolution to the 3km NAM on that anyway.  I just always warn its usually too cold in the mid-levels

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Why are you using the HRRR at this range?

3k Nam

Now shut up

[HeadInTheClouds]

ICON 

 

[Rmine1]

Snain for the immediate coast should keep the <1” streak alive 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Rmine1 said:

Snain for the immediate coast should keep the <1” streak alive 

Uh ? NYC will definitely get over an inch .

Go with the top tier models , not the 2nd tier models.

[SBUWX23]

4 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Snain for the immediate coast should keep the <1” streak alive 

all models have a 6-9 hour period of snow for the coast too. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

RGEM 

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

19 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Snain for the immediate coast should keep the <1” streak alive 

[MJO812]

Gfs

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs

We take