Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, DonnieB said:

NYC - Tupelo to Huntsville looking at 5-6" tomorrow, meanwhile you guys can't buy an 1" over past 2 years.  You guys ready to talk about it?

January 92 I was in ATL they got 5 inches (totally unforecast BTW) it was a similar narrow stripe to that....funny thing is at the time NYC had yet to register 1 inch that winter and entered March at 2.5 I think til two storms happened in 5 days bringing 10-11 inches.  That was also an El Nino winter with some similarities indices wise to this one

[Allsnow]

I see single digits lows Sunday morning…

 

Is that not cold anymore? 

[SnowGoose69]

Add the UKMET to what you want if you just want a light event...pushes core of overrunning right over most of area...coastal misses but as I said you probably sort of want it to in this setup

[winterwx21]

The timing certainly is good for accumulations since it's coming in overnight into early morning. We should be good for a couple inches here. 

I know we don't put a lot of stock in HRRR when it's in its long range, but it definitely looks good on the 12z run. 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I see single digits lows Sunday morning…

 

Is that not cold anymore? 

That would be a shock to the system. 

[the_other_guy]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

The timing certainly is good for accumulations since it's coming in overnight into early morning. We should be good for a couple inches here. 

I know we don't put a lot of stock in HRRR when it's in its long range, but it definitely looks good on the 12z run. 

Start looking at HRRR now

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The timing certainly is good for accumulations since it's coming in overnight into early morning. We should be good for a couple inches here. 

I know we don't put a lot of stock in HRRR when it's in its long range, but it definitely looks good on the 12z run. 

The HRRR can suck for thermals sometimes but as far as precip/track depictions at 48 it can often blow away the NAM on occasion.  

[RU848789]

I'm missing something on the UK, since snowfall is 1-2" generally for Philly-NJ-NYC area, but the QPF is 0.3-0.4" and temps never really go above 32F except near the coast and soundings show the whole column under 32F for Edison and NYC, at least. It's almost like they forgot to calculate the snowfall, lol, as 0.3-0.4" QPF should be at least 3-4" of snow with <32F temps through the column.  Anyone?

 

[SBUWX23]

Many models show an 850 mb warm nose scooting in during the day on Tuesday. I'm starting to think this may be inevitable as the warm advection forcing is what helps drive some of the initial bands that come in from the south. 

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I'm missing something on the UK, since snowfall is 1-2" generally for Philly-NJ-NYC area, but the QPF is 0.3-0.4" and temps never really go above 32F except near the coast and soundings show the whole column under 32F for Edison and NYC, at least. It's almost like they forgot to calculate the snowfall, lol, as 0.3-0.4" QPF should be at least 3-4" of snow with <32F temps through the column.  Anyone?

 

Yeah I saw one of the snowfall panels on pivotal was missing data. The snowfall amounts are definitely a little higher than what it was showing. 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

Many models show an 850 mb warm nose scooting in during the day on Tuesday. I'm starting to think this may be inevitable as the warm advection forcing is what helps drive some of the initial bands that come in from the south. 

My guess though is by time it got in it would not matter much.   I think in a setup like this 90% of the snow or precip would happen prior to the switch, thats the advantage as we know to not having bombed overrunning/WAA events like we see so often now...we just do not get those 2/8/94 or 1/26/94 type events ever anymore...everything is an amped shortwave or deep low 

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

My guess though is by time it got in it would not matter much.   I think in a setup like this 90% of the snow or precip would happen prior to the switch, thats the advantage as we know to not having bombed overrunning/WAA events like we see so often now...we just do not get those 2/8/94 or 1/26/94 type events ever anymore...everything is an amped shortwave or deep low 

What happened on 1/26/94? The two snow events in early February I remember clearly that year-- 2/8/94 and 2/11/94 I think? We also had a bowling ball low in late December  1993 and a moderate coastal in that same month.

[North and West]

What happened on 1/26/94? The two snow events in early February I remember clearly that year-- 2/8/94 and 2/11/94 I think? We also had a bowling ball low in late December  1993 and a moderate coastal in that same month.

Loved those February storms. Some favorite winter memories.


.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What happened on 1/26/94? The two snow events in early February I remember clearly that year-- 2/8/94 and 2/11/94 I think? We also had a bowling ball low in late December  1993 and a moderate coastal in that same month.

A shortwave basically ran underneath a massive arctic high and dropped 5-7 inches between 10pm-6am.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1994/us0126.php

[Allsnow]

Euro not backing down… 

2-4 area wide 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Euro not backing down… 

2-4 area wide 

 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

 

Slightly more amped and still cold 

[NEG NAO]

[HVSnowLover]

Models still a little all over the place in terms of where the most snow will be but seems 1-4 inches area wide is likely a good call at this point.  

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

January 92 I was in ATL they got 5 inches (totally unforecast BTW) it was a similar narrow stripe to that....funny thing is at the time NYC had yet to register 1 inch that winter and entered March at 2.5 I think til two storms happened in 5 days bringing 10-11 inches.  That was also an El Nino winter with some similarities indices wise to this one

I remember them well!  The first one brought 6.2 inches to NYC, the first 6"+ storm there in many years (but not here on the south shore, it was a mixture of snow and rain that stuck when it snowed and melted when it rained lol) and the second storm I was really looking forward to, because it was much colder and was going to be all snow, 5-8" was predicted but we got some sort of dry slot in the middle of the storm and only ended up with 3-5" with more emphasis on the 3" lol

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

A shortwave basically ran underneath a massive arctic high and dropped 5-7 inches between 10pm-6am.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1994/us0126.php

ah that was after our thaw ended?

[shadowsintherain]

Just had a nice mini snow squall move through Copiague a few mins ago.


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[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, shadowsintherain said:

Just had a nice mini snow squall move through Copiague a few mins ago.


.

it's still flurrying a little here after the "big show" went through here 30 min ago

[RU848789]

Unusually good agreement on snowfall, especially for Philly-NJ-NYC, from the three main ensemble forecasts~36 hours in advance of the precip.  I'm sure this helps forecasters' confidence level...

 

[SBUWX23]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Unusually good agreement on snowfall, especially for Philly-NJ-NYC, from the three main ensemble forecasts~36 hours in advance of the precip.  I'm sure this helps forecasters' confidence level...

 

Just hoping we don't have sneaky warm layers 850 and below. The system is not well organized so I'm hopeful there won't be super strong WA to ruin the 1-2 inches

[HVSnowLover]

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Unusually good agreement on snowfall, especially for Philly-NJ-NYC, from the three main ensemble forecasts~36 hours in advance of the precip.  I'm sure this helps forecasters' confidence level...

 

Weak storms without big temp gradients probably a lot easier to forecast than stronger storms.

[SBUWX23]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Weak storms without big temp gradients probably a lot easier to forecast than stronger storms.

There will be temperature gradients with this one too. Thermal gradients are part of the reason why we have precipitation. I actually argue the weaker system the harder it is to pinpoint because the advections are not as well resolved

[MJO812]

Nam coming in

[SBUWX23]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam coming in

Snow now by Monday evening? Hmm that's earlier 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said:

Snow now by Monday evening? Hmm that's earlier