Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Morning update from OKX:

Advisory may be needed especially if nam is correct and we see sleet and frz rain

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Advisory may be needed especially if nam is correct and we see sleet and frz rain

Root for the op EURO/EPS if you want all snow in the NYC metro area. The CMC/NAM/RGEM/ICON/UKMET have midlevel warm nose issues. IMO the EURO suite is going to be the most correct…1-2.5 inches, which would be a nice event considering where we are coming from. I think the GFS adjusts slightly west towards the EURO solution. I think the other models are too amped 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

1-3 a fine event after how shitty the winters have been .

I will enjoy it on Tuesday 

especially since it is a nice photogenic all day snow

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Jan 29 of 2022 was a great LI storm 

a foot of snow from Brooklyn on east.

[Allsnow]

[Allsnow]

Nam is colder this run 

[DonnieB]

NYC - Tupelo to Huntsville looking at 5-6" tomorrow, meanwhile you guys can't buy an 1" over past 2 years.  You guys ready to talk about it?

[MJO812]

Nam is too close to the coast. Congrats interior on a light snowfall.

[Northof78]

Nam verbatim is a decent coastal storm with moderate/borderline warning accums inland,  light accums at coast, probably too amped, but that is the trend 

[Northof78]

12z NAM true coastal...

[jm1220]

Don’t be surprised if this trends to crap again for the city east since we normally have these storms trend NW at the end and the SE ridge isn’t modeled too well and often gets stronger closer into the event. And the cold air is really for after this event, not going into it. If we get prolonged easterly wind again near the coast we’re screwed. 

[Sampson]

28 minutes ago, DonnieB said:

NYC - Tupelo to Huntsville looking at 5-6" tomorrow, meanwhile you guys can't buy an 1" over past 2 years.  You guys ready to talk about it?

Generally speaking, the good thing is that we don’t actually live anywhere in between Tupelo and Huntsville. 

[EastonSN+]

There are two rounds of precip on the NAM suite. Once hits southern areas (hurrah for DC, also see that light accumulation strip off the Delmarva and south Jersey coast), then the coastal takes over than the northern half of the forum scores.

Better south or north (sometimes that's the way it goes). 

This is only if the NAM is spot on and DC gets more than Hartford and Boston.

 

 

[Rmine1]

Keep the streak alive!!!!

[the_other_guy]

25 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Don’t be surprised if this trends to crap again for the city east since we normally have these storms trend NW at the end and the SE ridge isn’t modeled too well and often gets stronger closer into the event. And the cold air is really for after this event, not going into it. If we get prolonged easterly wind again near the coast we’re screwed. 

There’s just not that much precipitation here on the NAM. At least for NYC Metro

[Allsnow]

Rgem got Colder 

[Allsnow]

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Don’t be surprised if this trends to crap again for the city east since we normally have these storms trend NW at the end and the SE ridge isn’t modeled too well and often gets stronger closer into the event. And the cold air is really for after this event, not going into it. If we get prolonged easterly wind again near the coast we’re screwed. 

It’s going to drop down into the teens tonight 

[the_other_guy]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Rgem got Colder 

and I think that’s what we’re working with.

 

Guys keep mentioning higher snowfall amounts. It’s really what it is and if it’s cold enough and if the position is right for it. 

 

There are no warning level snows coming out of this

[Allsnow]

Icon got colder and further south with snowfall 

[EastonSN+]

AC jackpot! Could actually happen with the 2 wave depiction.

[ILoveWinter]

49 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Don’t be surprised if this trends to crap again for the city east since we normally have these storms trend NW at the end and the SE ridge isn’t modeled too well and often gets stronger closer into the event. And the cold air is really for after this event, not going into it. If we get prolonged easterly wind again near the coast we’re screwed. 

Isn't it dropping into the lower 20s and may not break freezing in the city tomorrow?

[EastonSN+]

Wave one.

[MJO812]

Gfs

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Isn't it dropping into the lower 20s and may not break freezing in the city tomorrow?

If the low trends amped it would turn the wind direction easterly and we don’t have a source to reinforce the cold air quite yet, that comes in earnest behind the storm. That’s why these amped models have light rain near the city. Hopefully we can find the middle ground that keeps it further offshore and a light snow event. 

[EastonSN+]

Central Virginia jackpot.

[EastonSN+]

First wave Canada

[EastonSN+]

Total Canadian

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

53 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Icon got colder and further south with snowfall 

Much stronger event likely Friday. This is like an appetizer 

[SnowGoose69]

The problem the metro has is the main initial round now looks to go mainly NW and the coastal probably is too far east...there will be a screw zone between, there has been a slight SE move though on the some models the last 1-2 cycles so as someone said above, a mix of the GFS/RGEM is really the best for the metro itself