Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[SBUWX23]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 1/2017 storm was odd in that a LP which originated off FL managed to come N enough to impact us, nobody had ever seen that before, if we see the same happen again and get a substantial snow event out of it it just adds to the list of odd things we see that we never used to

That was all jet dynamics. The models did not handle the upper jet well at all leading up to it. Within 12-24 hours out the GFS i remember finally picked up on the amplification of the jet and we had excellent right entrance lift from a departing 160-180 kt. The flatter solutions leading up to the event led to models to have precip offshore. 

[Allsnow]

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 1/2017 storm was odd in that a LP which originated off FL managed to come N enough to impact us, nobody had ever seen that before, if we see the same happen again and get a substantial snow event out of it it just adds to the list of odd things we see that we never used to

Was that the 12 hr blizzard where we had whiteout conditions all day?

I loved that storm, I consider if a half sized version of January 2016 lol

[mattinpa]

43 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

At least a good many are better than the OP. I think we can’t expect a big storm but moderate is still on the table.

[Allsnow]

Trailing energy is stronger on the 18z euro 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Trailing energy is stronger on the 18z euro 

Hgts higher on east coast 

[Allsnow]

TPV is further southwest as well. This should be a better run 

[Allsnow]

Mod snow Tuesday morning 

[Allsnow]

Low over obx 

[Allsnow]

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The Euro caves

[wdrag]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

The Euro caves

Seems to be caving.. and we're not done yet.  GFS too.  Event hasn't happened so will have to wait til 00z/17 to know for sure.  I continue with the RGEM/GGEM/NAM/HRRR blend.  If the Canadian drops it... then its over. 

 

Some of the modeling is showing 6+".  axis should be near I95 or just northwest but we'll see.  Definitely higher fluffier powdery snow ratios inland.  Staying with 1-3" NYC...but no guarantee 1". 

[Rmine1]

So back to looking like a mixed bag/rain for the immediate coast?

[MJO812]

Just now, Rmine1 said:

So back to looking like a mixed bag/rain for the immediate coast?

Not yet 

[vegan_edible]

0z runs tonight will be very telling, im hoping for a solid 1-3 for the coast and more inland but we'll see what we get 

[Rmine1]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Not yet 

The NW trend used to be our friend, now it’s that annoying neighbor. At this point, anything that is better than a 1:1 snow ratio is a win. Unfortunately I think the “immediate” coast will be skunked 

[the_other_guy]

287 special? I gotta warm up the Horse and Buggy if so…

[Allsnow]

EPS mean up to 2-3 for 95 

[vegan_edible]

10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

287 special? I gotta warm up the Horse and Buggy if so…

i'll say it again... its a treacherous journey to wegmans 

[RU848789]

A friend of mine who is a former NWS met said on a sports message board I frequent that, "The NBM is the starting pt for all NWS fcsts." You can tell he used to write AFDs by his abbreviations, lol. Anyway here's the regional NWS forecast (which I like better than the separate Philly and NYC office maps) and the NBM 19Z forecast which are nearly identical.  Would be nice for these to verify and break those friggin' <1" streaks and it would also be nice to get at least 1-2" or more of snow and have it be around all week, given temps will struggle to get above 32F through next weekend.  And it would be awesome to get more snow then...

 

[Rmine1]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS mean up to 2-3 for 95 

Anything to the East? Not liking the trends for MBY

[Wannabehippie]

I am going with the trend is your friend. The trend has been no snow for NYC and points east. I say no snow for the Tuesday event, other than maybe a coating, for NYC.
 

[jm1220]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not yet 

It’s looking to me like there’s a pretty low ceiling for us city and east-either a weak snow event or a stronger snow to rain or mostly rain event. Nothing to really force a SE track if it does get stronger so if it strengthens beyond a 1-3” type event it would be more NW and rain here because it amps too much. 

[donsutherland1]

A general 1" to perhaps 3" snowfall still appears likely for Philadelphia to Boston. There is a possibility that somewhat more snow could fall in and around the Boston area. There remains some uncertainty, but the guidance has been converging on a solution.

WPC Maps:

Latest EPS and NBE Data:

 

 

 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I am going with the trend is your friend. The trend has been no snow for NYC and points east. I say no snow for the Tuesday event, other than maybe a coating, for NYC.
 

Uh ? The trend is shifting west slightly 

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Anything to the East? Not liking the trends for MBY

 

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s looking to me like there’s a pretty low ceiling for us city and east-either a weak snow event or a stronger snow to rain or mostly rain event. Nothing to really force a SE track if it does get stronger so if it strengthens beyond a 1-3” type event it would be more NW and rain here because it amps too much. 

The mean is highest for LI and Southeast Mass 

 

 

[North and West]

287 special? I gotta warm up the Horse and Buggy if so…

I got u fam

Footage from my ring camera earlier on the homestead:



.

[Allsnow]

Where is it going to rain? Some people are ridiculous 

 

 

[vegan_edible]

Just now, North and West said:

I got u fam

Footage from my ring camera earlier on the homestead:



.

damn you caught me on camera. nice angles

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Where is it going to rain? Some people are ridiculous 

 

 

Seriously

There is plenty of cold air around