Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

snowman19
snowman19

The Euro is still the best model we have, especially given that it excels during southern branch dominated Ninos. I think that solution is absolutely believable given how fast the southern branch shor

MJO812
MJO812

DT expects the models to trend west this weekend .

MJO812
MJO812

Miss snow

Posted Images

Irish

Irish

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, jaquanweb said:

it’s just coincidence but since following this forum i have seen a significant snow event i just wanna follow a storm from birth to blizzard 

This guy brought the bad JuJu!!  Off with his head, a sacrifice to the snow gods. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted

UKMET looks pretty good too. A little warm for the coast, but that model is bad with thermals as many people have mentioned. It would probably be a 3 to 5 inch deal like the CMC. Everything looks decent tonight except for GFS. Hopefully Euro will look decent later. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

UKMET looks pretty good too. A little warm for the coast, but that model is bad with thermals as many people have mentioned. It would probably be a 3 to 5 inch deal like the CMC. Everything looks decent tonight except for GFS. Hopefully Euro will look decent later. 

Gfs just looks so bad but if euro was on board I'd be more willing to ignore it

Link to comment
Share on other sites
winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs just looks so bad but if euro was on board I'd be more willing to ignore it

12z Euro did give us a light event. I think enough models are on board (and we're only 3 days out now) that an event is looking likely, even if it's just a light event. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro did give us a light event. I think enough models are on board (and we're only 3 days out now) that an event is looking likely, even if it's just a light event. 

Ukie's done by Tuesday morning whereas cmc has most of the day tuesday with light snow so timing is still a bit off

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

The GFS is basically the only snowless run at 00Z...just goes totally coastal dominant, even the 18z Euro did not do that so as of now the chance to end the streak does live on.  If the Euro starts going bone dry even with the WAA then its probably down to 1/20 happening

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS is basically the only snowless run at 00Z...just goes totally coastal dominant, even the 18z Euro did not do that so as of now the chance to end the streak does live on.  If the Euro starts going bone dry even with the WAA then its probably down to 1/20 happening

And the Euro didn't go bone dry. Not great but it has light snow Monday night. 1 to 2 inches. As you said, everything is showing snow except for GFS. We're still looking good for at least a light event. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And the Euro didn't go bone dry. Not great but it has light snow Monday night. 1 to 2 inches. As you said, everything is showing snow except for GFS. We're still looking good for at least a light event. 

sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS is basically the only snowless run at 00Z...just goes totally coastal dominant, even the 18z Euro did not do that so as of now the chance to end the streak does live on.  If the Euro starts going bone dry even with the WAA then its probably down to 1/20 happening

1/20 is basically a non - event on the EURO

sn10_024h-imp.conus.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wdrag

wdrag

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Keep looking and monitoring:  I,   as does WPC (their products) agree with posters... the snow is coming.  RGEM-CMC consistency should be monitored. Axis is variable. Latest RGEM - 06z/13 version, I sort of like. Looks like 1-4" I95 west and has ice near the I95 corridor. NAM seems too warm=north.

I did check the NAM and a banding signal is evident so that contributes to the powdery potential.  

How this plays?  For now, I think this is a powdery interior hazardous modest impact event on previously frozen ground (4P-Sunday-Tuesday) with decent snow ratios, higher than 10 to 1 for the interior (NOT the WET 7 to 1 ratios).  I can see ice or rain for I95 or east of I95 so for myself in NYC CP, I'll stick with for 1-3" by sunrise Wednesday. Confidence a little below average on what happens NYC (but a little above average interior).  I think staying conservative in NYC is best for now and just monitor the modeling... for me I need the GGEM, RGEM on board for this to happen.

fwiw...if interested see January thread for the Sunday cold frontal passage snow squall event that seems to be looming for our NYC suibforum

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...