Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[WestBabylonWeather]

West Babylon IMBY dropped to 31.8 now back to 32.0

Light rain. Who knows if it’s freezing 

[psv88]

Temps ticking up a bit now on the island, let’s see if we break freezing 

[Allsnow]

28 here and still raining. Decent glaze 

[MANDA]

All but over here.  As of 11:00 event total 2".  Didn't even reach the low end of my forecast (3-5") for this area.

Under performer up this way in my opinion.  Could still be periods of flurries but I think the accumulating is done.

[ebwx]

raining in east brunswick

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, MANDA said:

All but over here.  As of 11:00 event total 2".  Didn't even reach the low end of my forecast (3-5") for this area.

Under performer up this way in my opinion.  Could still be periods of flurries but I think the accumulating is done.

The only 3" area I could find was from mercer over to Monmouth and parts of LI. They got into the heavier banding. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The only 3" area I could find was from mercer over to Monmouth and parts of LI. They got into the heavier banding. 

I have about 2.5”. Temp still stuck at 30-31 which I’m thinking is about as high as I’ll get. 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I have about 2.5”. Temp still stuck at 30-31 which I’m thinking is about as high as I’ll get. 

Ticking up now, we will make a run at 33-34 imo 

[kat5hurricane]

Raining hard here now. There's going to be some serious black ice issues tomorrow when all these puddles freeze

[batmansascientist]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's actually 716 days. It will likely reach 717 days today, as I doubt we'll reach 2" daily snowfall today. It will be a close call, though.

Whoops. My spreadsheet had predicted weather for a few days and I wasn't paying attention. Still interesting that the 2" record was almost covered by the 1" record. 

[NJwx85]

28 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

The palisades had more than enough snow to plow it earlier. As did 303, 59, parts of the thruway, and 202. 

When I went through at 8am the PIP was in better shape than I-87.

[NorthShoreWx]

Still 31 here with freezing rain.  There is some ice accretion on branches, but some is running off. I think if a degree colder there'd be a lot more ice.  The snow is actually softening.  It stuck easily to the pavement at first but other than a cold surface from yesterdays temperatures which stayed in the 20's, the ground is not frozen.  Some of that heat appears to be coming back to the surface.

FYI, We were at 2000'+ in the Catskills on Sunday doing some shelter building drills and although there was several inches of snow on the ground, the ground was still not frozen. That's nuts for the Catskills in mid January.  We were near the 2nd Colgate Lake parking area for those familiar with the area. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

31.8 officially below freezing 

[BxEngine]

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

When I went through at 8am the PIP was in better shape than I-87.

The thruway near the palisades with the uphill going westbound from the mall was pretty crappy earlier this morning.

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Radar is really filling in now. Kudos to @Dark Star who called this at 7am.

I didn't call anything?  Perhaps I was linked to another post?

[mikeysed]

Southern Morris county everything is a sheet of ice.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

So what happened meteorologically with this that it’s basically raining with temps in the 20’s for many. I’m assuming that means the upper levels are too warm? How did that happen when the storm started off so cold and with lots of cold air in place?

Curious and don’t know enough to explain. 

Basically it was too late a developing surface low so you can effectively torch the mid levels with the WAA before the system deepens...we've seen more of these sort of setups the last 10 years, they were fairly rare prior to that...usually if a surface low developed in what was not a true Miller B situation off NC it would effectively be a case where cold air stayed locked in at all levels but we've seen more of these benchmark tracks or CLOSE to benchmark tracks with warm air at 925 lately

[psv88]

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I have about 2.5”. Temp still stuck at 30-31 which I’m thinking is about as high as I’ll get. 

Upton revised highs in NW Suffolk down to 32. Temps done ticking here for now. We’ve seen this before. Models underdoing low level cold. 

[tim]

31 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Ticking up now, we will make a run at 33-34 imo 

Yeah..I'm currently @ 33.6* with 

-R / drizzle. 

[SnowGoose69]

I'll predict now CPK gets more snow Friday than they did today...that was something I would not have been bold enough to say 18 hours ago.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Upton revised highs in NW Suffolk down to 32. Temps done ticking here for now. We’ve seen this before. Models underdoing low level cold. 

Curious to see if we get a brief flip back to snow later. Since winds never turned easterly we didn’t warm up. Not a fan of this lighter precip which will accrete better. 

[Snowlover11]

16 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

The thruway near the palisades with the uphill going westbound from the mall was pretty crappy earlier this morning.

87 is just wet now, im sure if you do some stupid maneuvers ya u’ll F*** up but the palisades is icy as hell, coming back home(north bound) their was another accident.  so heading to my dentist appointment two accidents one on each side.

[Picard]

22F and sleet, with an occasional flake mixed in.

[Volcanic Winter]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Basically it was too late a developing surface low so you can effectively torch the mid levels with the WAA before the system deepens...we've seen more of these sort of setups the last 10 years, they were fairly rare prior to that...usually if a surface low developed in what was not a true Miller B situation off NC it would effectively be a case where cold air stayed locked in at all levels but we've seen more of these benchmark tracks or CLOSE to benchmark tracks with warm air at 925 lately

Thanks for taking the time to answer me, appreciate it!

And that’s a shame, was a rather significant slug of precipitation after the changeover. Would’ve been a great all snow event. 

Thankful though at least for the three inches I managed, with the state of things the past two years I will absolutely take it. 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Curious to see if we get a brief flip back to snow later. Since winds never turned easterly we didn’t warm up. Not a fan of this lighter precip which will accrete better. 

I don’t see a flip back to snow. Probably good because it would just throw down a layer of slush to freeze up tonight. 
 

holding steady at 31 with ZR

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Volcanic Winter said:

Thanks for taking the time to answer me, appreciate it!

And that’s a shame, was a rather significant slug of precipitation after the changeover. Would’ve been a great all snow event. 

Thankful though at least for the three inches I managed, with the state of things the past two years I will absolutely take it. 

Seems to me we had a rare case where high res models overestimated the WAA induced QPF overnight....usually its the reverse that happens but probably due to the overall setup being weak we had a less common case where they overdid things.

[Tatamy]

Moderate snow here currently.  The echoes in the Allentown area are the real deal.  We had light snow earlier which had diminished to a light mix.  Precip picked up again in the last 30 minutes and with it the flip back to snow.  25/23

[Wxoutlooksblog]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'll predict now CPK gets more snow Friday than they did today...that was something I would not have been bold enough to say 18 hours ago.

At 72 hours CMC looks great for significant snow on Friday. GFS is just a whiff, not much at all. I think something closer to the CMC is the way to go here. It would have far greater potential if it slowed down which doesn't look likely. 

WX/PT

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Hopeful that an interim 945A measurement was made for the 2..75 hours additional minor acc. Sighhhh

I hope so, because there were likely some additional minor accumulations.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

The snow line should start collapsing back to the coast soon,all that in pa has to swing thru with the actual front and a coastal off shore. Nyc might get a gd burst out of that.