Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I know Chris said with time we are getting used to the above normal temps, but one thing that should also be added is that with time we are also getting less used to snow.  I envision in a few decades we WILL be like Atlanta when it comes to snow and 1-3 inches of snow will cause school closures and major traffic situations.

I guess I never understood why people think 2 should be easier to drive in than 4 or 6. A slick road is a slick road and it only takes a glaze of freezing drizzle to make roads and sidewalks treacherous

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Of course that band is sleet, damn - best looking band of the storm lost to sleet. The dual pol looked like it and verified. Final (I think) snow measurement as of 8:30 am was 2.3" and I cleared the board to measure the sleet (which does get added to the snow, although sleet is much more dense than snow - typically 1" of liquid translates to 3" of sleet and 10" of snow). Hopefully the freezing rain holds off for awhile, although the temp has jumped up to 28F...

Well, we flipped to freezing rain a little while ago, but it did sleet pretty decently for 30-45 minutes, which put down 0.1" of sleet before the ZR, so our final total for the storm is 2.4", which is a bit of a bust vs. the NWS advisory for 3-5" and my prediction of 3.2", but still a nice storm if you like snow and it'll be around to enjoy for at least a week and might even be topped off on Friday.  I recall being excited, but a bit skeptical when the NWS bumped up their forecast yesterday afternoon; in hindsight their 2-4" forecast for 95 and most of CNJ/NNJ would've been better.  

I cleared a small paved area when it changed to sleet and yes, it's now covered with the 0.1" of sleet and a glaze of ice on top, which will likely get worse for untreated paved surfaces, as temps are still only 29F and freezing rain continues to fall until early afternoon here with temps only forecast to reach 32F.  Time for some sleep, then some shoveling...

[NCPOW]

25.3 here in Ardsley. Very light sleet falling. Radar filling in back in central to north central jersey should bring us some more snow throughout the morning.

[bluewave]

Switched over to a mix of sleet and freezing and 27° here just east of KHVN. The 3km NAM more accurate here than the HRRR.

[snywx]

21° w/ steady lgt snow 

2.4" otg 

[jm1220]

Freezing rain now with some accretion.

[wdrag]

Big time cooling in the satellite imagery CP as a short wave approaches from the southwest. Snow and intensities of mixd precipitation I95 should intensify and expand west the next 4 hours (19z).  So far lots of fine flake dense packed snow here in Wantage with 2" but should get a decent dump 11A-2P here in SC.  21F.

see tropical tidbits satellite imagery or the various WFO pages. 

 

Fine flake snow in progress despite few radar returns. 

 

 

[MANDA]

Currently 23 here.  Light to some bursts of moderate snow ongoing.  Storm total so far 1.7".

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Somebody in rhode island is getting racked rn,they jackpot near providence.

[WestBabylonWeather]

I’m thankful for the couple inches I got. But man. If this was snow right now probably would have ended with 4” 

 

32.4 degrees and rain. Sucks. lol. 

[psv88]

16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we keep NE wind we won’t rise much if at all. Seems to be a coastal front near the twin forks where temps are in the upper 30s, let’s see if that can make headway west.

Upton extended the WWA until 7 for Nw and SW Suffolk, was set to expire at 10 am. Smart move. Side streets are a mess 

[NorthShoreWx]

5 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Somebody in rhode island is getting racked rn,they jackpot near providence.

That's bright banding from mixed precip PVD and points south and east.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

That's bright banding from mixed precip PVD and points south.

Yeah i just checked the cams around prov..its near whiteout. In the city proper.

[Snowlover11]

moderate sleet. gotta drive to the dentist this should be fun.

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Yeah i just checked the cams around prov..its near whiteout. In the city proper.

Providence traffic cameras for those who are interested:

https://www.dot.ri.gov/travel/cameras_metro.php

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Temp just started to drop in west babylon. I’m in between sunrise and southern state. Didn’t see that coming. I topped at 32.4 

[Allsnow]

Frz rain currently. The landscape is going to have a deep winter feel tomorrow with temps in the teens tonight and staying below frz tomorrow 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Providence traffic cameras for those who are interested:

https://www.dot.ri.gov/travel/cameras_metro.php

 

Some areas have a gd accumulation esp nw of prov,still snowing hard. The mix line is moving north though.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Frz rain currently. The landscape is going to have a deep winter feel tomorrow with temps in the teens tonight and staying below frz tomorrow 

Pretty heavy now along with pinging

[gravitylover]

23/21/ENE2 SN

It got mixed up for a while with some pellets and graupel but mostly stayed needle flakes. Now it's back to good snow growth so it's piling up again. Eyeball says 3" but it could be a bit more. It's the first lightweight white stuff we've had in a long time which is nice. 

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Upton extended the WWA until 7 for Nw and SW Suffolk, was set to expire at 10 am. Smart move. Side streets are a mess 

Latest HRRR doesn’t really get NW Suffolk, N Nassau into the city above freezing. May touch 33 very briefly. By 3-4pm temps start crashing behind the front and maybe a brief flip back to snow. 

[Cfa]

My PWS touched 33 but is now back to 32. Rain gauge still on 0.00” so nothing has melted yet.

2.0” average. 2.9” for the season.

[Northof78]

1.2" @ Millburn

[Stormlover74]

Maybe a burst of snow on the back edge later this afternoon?

 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Latest HRRR doesn’t really get NW Suffolk, N Nassau into the city above freezing. May touch 33 very briefly. By 3-4pm temps start crashing behind the front and maybe a brief flip back to snow. 

Yea temps have flatined around 31 LIE north. Even the north fork is below freezing still. At work in Melville and there is ice accretion in the trees now

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea temps have flatined around 31 LIE north. Even the north fork is below freezing still. At work in Melville and there is ice accretion in the trees now

Usually the story with models-underestimate mid level warmth and overestimate surface warmth. On a NE wind we won’t budge. The freezing rain releases some warmth into the air through the droplets freezing but without WAA at the surface we’d just get up to 33. Roads later will be awful. 

[RU848789]

17 hours ago, RU848789 said:

NAM and RGEM have consistently shown that freezing rain risk after about 9 am or so, but the globals either have all snow for 95 or a later changover to sleet or freezing rain. Freezing rain sucks, as it's dangerous and aesthetically unpleasing. Saving grace could be that it'll mostly be falling on top of snow, forming a crust and not falling on bare ground forming ice rinks.  It also could rob many of us along 95 and even a bit NW/SE of 95 of 0.1-0.2" QPF (or 1-2" of snow), which would also suck.  Hopefully the Euro is right on this.  Thoughts on how this might play out?  

 

Score a huge win for the NAM and the RGEM the two major mesoscale/regional models, as both models have been calling for significant freezing rain (ZR) since Sunday morning and generally weren't joined by the global models in predicting appreciable ZR until Monday morning or afternoon.  

[Snowlover11]

palisades parkway is a nightmare, no plow in sight and definitely ice all over the road, saw a tahoe banged up on the side of the road.

[the_other_guy]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

palisades parkway is a nightmare, no plow in sight and definitely ice all over the road, saw a tahoe banged up on the side of the road.

What would they plow? You need salters for days like this. Roads are wet going to icy

[Rjay]

33 and rain