Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[WestBabylonWeather]

30.7 with a light to moderate rain. I’m sure some of its freezing but I’m seeing runoff. 

[jm1220]

Mostly sleet now. Just measured-about 2.5” will do it. 

[psv88]

Snow is fighting back. Probably 50/50 now, snowing may be winning out 

[SBUWX23]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

These temps are spiking quickly. Upton says 33 for the high but we may blow past that. Would be nice if the coastal started cranking so the wind would shift 

The snow is not just gonna disappear. Roads will improve but you'll have snow on the ground by time it goes back below freezing 

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Anyone SW of me (New Brunswick to Princeton) know if that nice band heading NE towards me is still snow?  Anyone?  

No longer snowing here, some kind of mix

[NEG NAO]

snow has changed to Mix /Freezing Rain here Union/Middlesex county border NJ and looks to be changing Newark/Elizabeth with the precip band moving northeast

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said:

The snow is not just gonna disappear. Roads will improve but you'll have snow on the ground by time it goes back below freezing 

Right-some sleet and rain at 33-34 will just mean it all hardens into cement later today. I doubt we lose much unless it gets to like 37-38 which I doubt. 

[psv88]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Right-some sleet and rain at 33-34 will just mean it all hardens into cement later today. I doubt we lose much unless it gets to like 37-38 which I doubt. 

My guess we top out at 35, 38-39 on south shore and east end 

[Terraryzing87]

Just changed over to sleet in Port Jeff.

[Volcanic Winter]

Mix of fat flakes and ZR in Hillside right now, roads could get messy in this I would think. Still 28. 

[Tatamy]

Light snow here.  2” new OTG.  Schools closed and roads are dicey.

[Snowshack]

Over to sleet in Wading River - 2.25” on the deck.   It’s something.  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Still all snow uws, I’m exhausted I have been up

all night doing snow removal. I would estimate 2” here a few miles north of the park.

[Maureen]

35 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

@Maureen Light snow continues here. About 2.5" of accumulation. Temp 27

Thank you! Would have been even lovelier if the Christmas lights were still up, but I’ll take it! 

[JonClaw]

Flipped to sleet in downtown Brooklyn

[uofmiami]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0073.html

Mesoscale Discussion 0073
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0749 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic into southern New England

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 161349Z - 161745Z

   SUMMARY...Locally moderate winter precipitation rates will spread
   northeastward this morning, with some modest ice accretion possible
   where freezing rain persists.

   DISCUSSION...A surface low currently off of the Mid Atlantic coast
   is forecast to gradually deepen as it moves northeast toward coastal
   southern New England this morning. Multiple waves of light to
   locally moderate precipitation are ongoing and will continue to
   spread northeastward in conjunction with the surface low. While
   interior portions of the Northeast will likely continue to see snow
   (with generally light to moderate rates) this morning, low-level
   warm advection will support a transition from snow to sleet across
   parts of southern New England, with freezing rain persisting over
   portions of the Mid Atlantic region.

   As the low deepens offshore, a modest uptick in precipitation
   intensity will be possible through the morning. While rates will
   likely remain light to locally moderate, antecedent cold conditions
   (with temperatures initially in the 20s F) may result in relatively
   efficient ice accretion in areas that transition to freezing rain.
   Pockets of moderate sleet/snow will also be possible into parts of
   southern New England. Low-level warm advection will support a
   gradual transition to rain along the Mid Atlantic and southern New
   England coasts, but subfreezing temperatures may persist inland
   through the morning.

 

[Allsnow]

Radar fills in and we go to sleet…sigh

 

oh well, nice little event. Pack will have staying power 

[RU848789]

34 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 8 am we're up to 2.2" and still snowing at 26F, so temps are on the increase as the mix line gets closer (looks to be 15-20 miles SE of me). Looks like another decent band is to our SW from Philly to Trenton and will hopefully hit us (as snow).

Of course that band is sleet, damn - best looking band of the storm lost to sleet. The dual pol looked like it and verified. Final (I think) snow measurement as of 8:30 am was 2.3" and I cleared the board to measure the sleet (which does get added to the snow, although sleet is much more dense than snow - typically 1" of liquid translates to 3" of sleet and 10" of snow). Hopefully the freezing rain holds off for awhile, although the temp has jumped up to 28F...

[psv88]

31 now with sleet, roads should be fine now, schools made a good call with the no delay 

[SBUWX23]

Winds are still NNE. If it stays that way parts of nw LI into the city may never get above 32. But if it's around 32 any zr won't be an issue. Bigger concerns for black ice tonight though as temperatures fall. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Moderate snow mixed with some sleet now in Clifton, NJ

[psv88]

Gotta say Upton nailed this event for the island. Kudos to them. 

[Stormlover74]

1.7" up to 27 with sleet

3.9 on the season surpassing last year lol 

[uofmiami]

8 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

Winds are still NNE. If it stays that way parts of nw LI into the city may never get above 32. But if it's around 32 any zr won't be an issue. Bigger concerns for black ice tonight though as temperatures fall. 

29.7 in Syosset with winds out of the NNE currently. 

[Snowlover11]

sleet here in rockland. 2” on the ground.

[hooralph]

15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Still all snow uws, I’m exhausted I have been up

all night doing snow removal. I would estimate 2” here a few miles north of the park.

Not now it’s not.

[Greg g]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

sleet here in rockland. 2” on the ground.

Had about 1 inch in garnerville at 3am haven’t been home since then, will measure again when get back in a few hours 

[donsutherland1]

43 minutes ago, batmansascientist said:

What is a bit amazing though. Still the record for the longest gap between 2" snowfalls in NYC. (2/13/20212 had 1.6" of snow). It's been 721 since the last 2"+ snowfall  (7.3" on 1/29/2022). 

 

The previous record (that I have) was in 703 days ending 2/16/1902.  

 

I have this current stretch at 721 days. 

That's actually 716 days. It will likely reach 717 days today, as I doubt we'll reach 2" daily snowfall today. It will be a close call, though.

[NittanyWx]

Looks in line with expectations honestly. HRRR has a good handle on mixing

[psv88]

Temps have stabilized a bit at 31, probably too out around 33-34 still