Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[MGorse]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Phl 0.9 at 10pm 

That Philadelphia in the PNS is not PHL Airport. 

[Stormlover74]

Probably half inch. Steady light snow but my 2 to 4 is in jeopardy unless we don't dry slot and it snows through 7 or 8

[Big Jims Videos]

Beautiful sight after two years of nothing at the beach. 

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

1.5 inches of snow in the Ramtown section of Howell, NJ as of 11pm

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Probably half inch. Steady light snow but my 2 to 4 is in jeopardy unless we don't dry slot and it snows through 7 or 8

Dry slot? What 

[Franklin0529]

Radar looks juiced to the south 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Dry slot? What 

Hrrr's been showing an area of subsidence. Hopefully it's wrong

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Probably half inch. Steady light snow but my 2 to 4 is in jeopardy unless we don't dry slot and it snows through 7 or 8

A nice steady light powdery snow out there at 25 degrees. I just measured 0.3", but of course we have a long way to go. I just looked at RGEM and it ramps up the intensity of the snow mid morning before we go over to a wintry mix around midday. I don't think we'll have a problem getting to 3. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Surpassed my expectations already. 

[ZeeTwentyFour]

Nice coating over all surfaces now in North Massapequa, including Broadway. 

[mannynyc]

Down to 25 degrees in Central Park

[Rjay]

Up from 25 to 26 now with light snow.  Looks nice outside but it's also a total snoozefest so far .  All these KUs over the last 2 decades have really changed the game for me.  I hate that so much. 

I really do love this weather though.  

[psv88]

Just now, Rjay said:

Up from 25 to 26 now with light snow.  Looks nice outside but it's also a total snoozefest so far .  All these KUs over the last 2 decades have really changed the game for me.  I hate that so much. 

Agree 100%. It’s 25 here and snowing but pretty boring. Snow without wind is pretty lame. Snow less than 3 inches even more lame.

we never even used to make threads for 1-3” nuisance events. Times have changed 

[Gravity Wave]

Coating on cold surfaces here, starting to stick to the Avenues.

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Agree 100%. It’s 25 here and snowing but pretty boring. Snow without wind is pretty lame. Snow less than 3 inches even more lame.

we never even used to make threads for 1-3” nuisance events. Times have changed 

this was always forecasted to be a light event 1-3 inches in immediate NYC metro but the heavier snow amounts weren't forecasted to be south of us . Radar is showing dryer slots especially in Eastern PA. with a heavier band near York and Harrisburg at 12:15 AM - but that band seems to be drying up moving northeast.... less then an inch still here on Middlesex/Union County border NJ

[NorthShoreWx]

As of midnight, 0.5" snowfall.

Temperature is 25.  Pretty, but painfully light snow continues.   Accumulating 1 or 2 tenths of an inch per hour.  To put that in perspective, the liquid equivalent of this light fluff is probably a trace per hour.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

25/24f here ..snow has picked up in intensity over the last 15 mins or so...approaching a inch or so. 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

As of 11 pm, we're up to about 5/8" as another 1/4" fell the past hour. It's still 25F, but the snow has increased in intensity the last 10 minutes and it looks like that will continue for awhile, so hopefully we'll start doing better than 1/4" per hour.

And as of midnight we're up to 0.9", so another 1/4" or so in the last hour. Temp is down to 24F. Snowfall intensity remains a bit more than light, but not quite moderate with small, fine flakes, indicating we're not getting the best snow growth, with small dendrites/rods falling, so ratios are probably close to 10:1 if I had to guess.

Assuming we stay at 1/4" per hour overnight, we'd likely have about 2.5" by 6 am, which is when the coastal low is supposed to be taking over and the models (and mets) are saying intensity will increase, but also bring in more warm air aloft, probably changing our precip to sleet or freezing rain or plain rain by maybe 10 am - but if we can get 3-4 hours of 1/2" per hour snowfall (moderate rate), we could add another 2" to get to around 4". We'll see.  Interesting that Lee Goldberg has essentially the NJ TPK from Trenton to Ft. Lee as the 3" line with 3-5" NW of that line and 1-3" SE of it.  

[NEG NAO]

Just now, RU848789 said:

And as of midnight we're up to 0.9", so another 1/4" or so in the last hour. Temp is down to 24F. Snowfall intensity remains a bit more than light, but not quite moderate with small, fine flakes, indicating we're not getting the best snow growth, with small dendrites/rods falling, so ratios are probably close to 10:1 if I had to guess.

Assuming we stay at 1/4" per hour overnight, we'd likely have about 2.5" by 6 am, which is when the coastal low is supposed to be taking over and the models (and mets) are saying intensity will increase, but also bring in more warm air aloft, probably changing our precip to sleet or freezing rain or plain rain by maybe 10 am - but if we can get 3-4 hours of 1/2" per hour snowfall (moderate rate), we could add another 2" to get to around 4". We'll see.  Interesting that Lee Goldberg has essentially the NJ TPK from Trenton to Ft. Lee as the 3" line with 3-5" NW of that line and 1-3" SE of it.  

right now radar shows no evidence  of a coastal low as it is dry south of Atlantic City down the coast through North Carolina

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

right now radar shows no evidence  of a coastal low as it is dry south of Atlantic City down the coast through North Carolina

That won't happen til after 7

[RU848789]

Finally getting a decent band the last 10 minutes with heavier snowfall and bigger dendrites; looks like the band might last another 20 minutes, but hard to predict that stuff.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, RU848789 said:

Finally getting a decent band the last 10 minutes with heavier snowfall and bigger dendrites; looks like the band might last another 20 minutes, but hard to predict that stuff.

then there is a big hole dry slot on radar west of us lets see if anything is actually falling undetected in that slot or the snow shuts off.....

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

then there is a big hole dry slot on radar west of us lets see if anything is actually falling undetected in that slot or the snow shuts off.....

I think it will but there will be a short time where probably areas near Staten Island east across the metro go very light or shut off

[WxDom]

Will be scanning thru here periodically for latest totals to include in our PNS.

Also feel free to either tag us @NWSNewYorkNY on X, or can submit a report to us here.

Thanks!

-Dominic (Upton)

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, WxDom said:

Will be scanning thru here periodically for latest totals to include in our PNS.

Also feel free to either tag us @NWSNewYorkNY on X, or can submit a report to us here.

Thanks!

-Dominic (Upton)

Hi Dominic.  Are you a meteorologist?

[NEG NAO]

15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think it will but there will be a short time where probably areas near Staten Island east across the metro go very light or shut off

Radar is not picking everything up it is still coming down steady and  lightly in its dry slot you shouldn't be shutting off totally - I am 10 miles west of Staten Island I have 3/4 of an inch only on the ground

[WxDom]

Hey RJay, yep met here. Holding down the fort at OKX tonight. Just measured 0.8" so far on eastern Long Island.

15 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Hi Dominic.  Are you a meteorologist?

[RU848789]

40 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

And as of midnight we're up to 0.9", so another 1/4" or so in the last hour. Temp is down to 24F. Snowfall intensity remains a bit more than light, but not quite moderate with small, fine flakes, indicating we're not getting the best snow growth, with small dendrites/rods falling, so ratios are probably close to 10:1 if I had to guess.

Assuming we stay at 1/4" per hour overnight, we'd likely have about 2.5" by 6 am, which is when the coastal low is supposed to be taking over and the models (and mets) are saying intensity will increase, but also bring in more warm air aloft, probably changing our precip to sleet or freezing rain or plain rain by maybe 10 am - but if we can get 3-4 hours of 1/2" per hour snowfall (moderate rate), we could add another 2" to get to around 4". We'll see.  Interesting that Lee Goldberg has essentially the NJ TPK from Trenton to Ft. Lee as the 3" line with 3-5" NW of that line and 1-3" SE of it.  

As of 1 am, we're up to 1.1", so we had about another 1/4" last hour, but the radar has dried up to our SW and it's heading here, so expecting less this next hour, unless that fairly large hole closes up. Still 24F. Probably going to nap for a few hours...

[RU848789]

6 minutes ago, WxDom said:

Hey RJay, yep met here. Holding down the fort at OKX tonight. Just measured 0.8" so far on eastern Long Island.

Welcome aboard!  And let's get this man a red tag!  And since you're here, how much QPF do you think the 95 corridor from, say Edison (I know, just outside of your CWA, but close and where I live, lol), to NYC will be losing to sleet/ZR/rain.  Hoping the NAM is overdone with the ZR and we stay snow longer, but we'll see I guess.  Appreciate the work the NWS does, especially PHI and OKX, as I'm right on the border.  

[NEG NAO]

who is buying into the idea of a coastal low developing and increasing snowfall coverage around the metro after 7 am tomorrow ? Radar just looks like a disorganized light mess currently