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Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)


wdrag
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22 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

I think the 00z nam has some feedback with convection with the low that is resulting in higher qpf out east. Not sure if I buy that 

Suddenly it's showing 1"+ qpf for the twin forks.  Not inspiring to see that doubled at the last minute.  

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Intensity just increased drastically on barnegat bay.   Unfortunately,  wind is beginning to really pick up.  Temps have actually dropped back to 28.2 from 30.4 an hour ago.   If these rates continue, we will have 4 inches before the changeover early morning.  

 

I'm impressed and content.  Thank God the drought is over. 

 

(My German shorthair is having a blast... even after hunting birds for 2 hours this afternoon.  Makes me smile.)

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3 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i guess mount holly isn’t worried about that much FZR

Clearly, they only see a bit of ZR occurring...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
933 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM update....
No significant changes to the forecast as of 930PM. Snow
overspreading the region as expected with transition to ice
happening in southernmost zones presently. Tweaked the wording
for the WSW to give a bit more range in better agreement with
our existing forecast, and spread a bit more ice further north
and west into PA and central/northern NJ, but these are minor
adjustments since a light icing on top of plowed, treated roads
should cause little additional issue... a crust on top of the
snow otherwise.
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