Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, Picard said:

Admit I am a little worried about this.  It's a desert up here.

Here's an example.  

Gif is from 7pm to 1am 

[Picard]

1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said:

Go have some dinner, watch some TV and trust meteorology here.

Same.  Plus a beer.

[snywx]

5 minutes ago, Picard said:

Admit I am a little worried about this.  It's a desert up here.

I think 4-5" is a good call up here. Ratios up here are gonna be 15-20:1

[wdrag]

Just a reminder continue with obs and now casts here and pllllease enjoy this.  Its a nice wintry event. CP should beautiful in the morning.  Thanks!

[Irish]

7 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

 

First flakes sticking to surfaces. 
 

What app is that?

[the_other_guy]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I think the TAFs are a tad too fast at the airports...RASN at LGA by 12Z just seems crazy to me...I'd say PLSN or FZRAPL by 14-15Z makes more sense.  The TAFs tend to be automated these days now anyway so often they can disagree with the grids

I just don’t understand what happened with this forecast. any changeover was supposed to be down by the coast at 1 PM now they have me going to ice up here, and the coast going to rain by 10 AM. major shift that I don’t see reflected in the models.

[WestBabylonWeather]

News 12 LI met Rich Hoffman saying they are over performing south of us 

[Volcanic Winter]

7 minutes ago, Irish said:

What app is that?

The accompanying app for the Weatherflow Tempest station.

[sussexcountyobs]

22.5/6.4 Overcast 

[ZeeTwentyFour]

26 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

 

First flakes sticking to surfaces. 

Nice WRX! 

[wdrag]

fwiw on the megalopolis cities first 1".  

DCA AT 4P 0.7.  Since then en ought measurable to suggest at least 1"

BWI at 4P 0.5.  Since then approaching 1.

PHL Trace through 4P.

I've seen 1-2": near Richmond and just southwest of DCA, with 0.5 to near 1" DCA-BWI.

This seems to be a mainly Tuesday morning snow-ice show for our NYC subforum...about a 12-15 hour event. Short term guidance is getting pretty firm on warming aloft NYC and to just west if I95 near or just after sunrise.   I'm not counting on. the globals regarding changover.

Best snow in the broad 4-6" axis in dark blue.  I think this forecast may be 2" too low in northwest Ct/w MA.

 

 

 

[Byrdhousebv]

27.1/11.4 w/occasional flakes.

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr seems to have 2 max areas that have been showing up the past couple runs. One from Philly over to Monmouth and the other far nw areas. That would be your 4"+. 2 to 4" in between

Could change next run of course

[gravitylover]

18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

fwiw on the megalopolis cities first 1".  

DCA AT 4P 0.7.  Since then en ought measurable to suggest at least 1"

BWI at 4P 0.5.  Since then approaching 1.

PHL Trace through 4P.

I've seen 1-2": near Richmond and just southwest of DCA, with 0.5 to near 1" DCA-BWI.

This seems to be a mainly Tuesday morning snow-ice show for our NYC subforum...about a 12-15 hour event. Short term guidance is getting pretty firm on warming aloft NYC and to just west if I95 near or just after sunrise.   I'm not counting on. the globals regarding changover.

Best snow in the broad 4-6" axis in dark blue.  I think this forecast may be 2" too low in northwest Ct/w MA.

 

 

 

That would be two snowstorms in a row where the better amounts go around me to the N/NW by just a few miles

 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

Interesting. Upton sees Suffolk all the way to Nassau border going to plain rain for 7 hours. Not sure any model has that. It also increased some amounts to 3.5 or so for western Suffolk. Will be interesting to see. I doubt we hit the forecast high of 38. Temp busted low today as well

For us we may reach 32-33 but we probably have several hours with light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. The immediate coast probably goes to 35 or so and rain. A good bit tougher to get rid of the surface cold on the north shore. The mesos are more sticky with the cold air here which is likely more accurate. 

[wdrag]

13 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

That would be two snowstorms in a row where the better amounts go around me to the N/NW by just a few miles

 

It's just an estimate. I ,or the modeling might be wrong-there's hope. Enjoy waking to a whitened landscape.

[MJO812]

18z Euro has a thump

[MJO812]

3-5 might be doable for the NYC area .

[wdrag]

BWI moderater snow at 7PM and I think they are over an inch now.

 

DCA may be at 1.5" since I saw a 4/002 indicating 2" on the ground there.

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

3-5 might be doable for the NYC area .

If the initial snow can thump for a while it’s possible. It’s all about how much we can squeeze out while we still have the cold air. Thankfully a lot is coming ahead of the warm air. 

[Tatamy]

Steady light snow falling throughout the Philly area and the suburbs.  There is steady light snow falling as far north as the Trenton area.

[donsutherland1]

Select snowfall amounts from the Washington-Baltimore Area:

Baltimore: 1.4"

Sterling (Dulles Airport): 1.8"

Washington, DC: 1.8"

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Select snowfall amounts from the Washington-Baltimore Area:

Baltimore: 1.4"

Sterling (Dulles Airport): 1.8"

Washington, DC: 1.8"

The streak is over for those areas! 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The streak is over for those areas! 

Big snows!

[the_other_guy]

2 hour delay for ice.

Preemptive. Who else?

[wdrag]

Quite a nice snowstorm developing for the big cities... even Richmond.  We worry too much, I think... let's count on a good deal of what we haven't seen much of in the cities at sunrise. After that, so be it.  Enjoy this snow!  mPing has it on south shore LI!

[Picard]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

2 hour delay for ice.

Preemptive. Who else?

My campus just called 2 hr delay.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The streak is over for those areas! 

Philadelphia and New York City will see their streaks end. It will be close in Atlantic City, which would set a new record of 716 days if it fails to measure 1" today.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Big snows!

In a dud winter like this I will take any snow I can get. It will be cold this week so the snow will stick around. 

[Tatamy]

The leading edge of the light snow runs from just south of Reading over to the Trenton area.  This lines up well with the heavier echos seen on radar.