Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[NittanyWx]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This looks great

Probably a little over juiced

[ForestHillWx]

My dad lives northwest of Lexington, VA and had light snow begin around 6:30 am. 

[Rmine1]

Congrats to all under a WWA. Bubkis out here in the tropics. I got called out for calling for mostly snain for the immediate coast, and lo and behold….,

[SBUWX23]

Just now, Rmine1 said:

Congrats to all under a WWA. Bubkis out here in the tropics. I got called out for calling for mostly snain for the immediate coast, and lo and behold….,

There is a good 6-9 period of snow for the immediate coast too. 

[psv88]

Just now, Rmine1 said:

Congrats to all under a WWA. Bubkis out here in the tropics. I got called out for calling for mostly snain for the immediate coast, and lo and behold….,

You’re going to get snow stop. Maybe take a break from posting or post in banter?

[wdrag]

I think media is underplaying impact and amounts... almost certain to have a band of 3-5" just west of I95 into ABE-SWF axis. NYC might end up with 3". Their first 2 inches should be on the ground by 7A Tuesday.   ICE is coming too along the I95 corridor.  

[wdrag]

Not changing the thread title. it's good enough and rode it from start to finish. OBS in here as well.  Thanks, Walt

 

[BoulderWX]

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This looks great

Think this is the highest numbers we’ll see but maybe it scores a coup picking up on a couple extra inches. Thinking a 2-3” even for most in metro area 

[MJO812]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

Think this is the highest numbers we’ll see but maybe it scores a coup picking up on a couple extra inches. Thinking a 2-3” even for most in metro area 

I'm thinking 1-3

[Stormlover74]

Rgem came in cold and beefed up accumulations. We have really nice consensus it seems. Hopefully everyone gets at least 2 with some 4 to 5 showing up over the interior. Any mixing near 95 and the coast which would be light anyway 

[SI Mailman]

CPK with 0.97”


.

.9 before midnight and another .9 after

[North and West]

Waving to the family as I get ready for the snow out yonder upon the banks of 287





.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

.9 before midnight and another .9 after

Good point.  .8 before midnight and 1.0 afterwards and we see headlines about the snow drought ending.  The exact same snowfall starting a few minutes earlier and the headlines are the opposite.  Where'd they put that old face palm emoji?

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

.9 before midnight and another .9 after

That would suck but isn't impossible

[kat5hurricane]

I think this could be a bit of an overperformer just based on precedent. I've seen many times with these smaller events when the models beef up a bit at the last minute especially in a widespread event like this and the higher end totals verify. Of course there's a ceiling to this but I wouldn't be surprised to see some 4-5" totals somewhere.

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That would suck but isn't impossible

for all the noise around Central Park measurements, they essentially got no snow last winter. A tenth up or down, you never looked out and saw white ground in Central Park last winter. To me that makes the record good enough.

[USCG RS]

Given the cold BL air mass (even if midlevels warm a bit), the threat of a glaze of ice should be taken seriously. Even a small glaze of ice can snarl traffic and sidewalks. I am not saying that this will be an ice storm, but, with how cold the BL will be, I would say a glaze of ice may be more noteworthy than normal. 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Congrats to all under a WWA. Bubkis out here in the tropics. I got called out for calling for mostly snain for the immediate coast, and lo and behold….,

If you're in Nassau County you're under a WWA for 1-3 inches of snow just like I am.

[MJO812]

So close to a bigger thump .

Rgem Increased precip amounts.

Have to get the blue up here 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

.9 before midnight and another .9 after

Good thing the accumulating snow will start after midnight lol

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This looks great

Would deliver for most of the forum. North areas cheated a little but we had our foot last week. 

[NJwx85]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So close to a bigger thump .

Rgem Increased precip amounts.

Have to get the blue up here 

Inland areas could get 4"+ if that QPF verified thanks to higher than normal ratios.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Inland areas could get 4"+ if that QPF verified thanks to higher than normal ratios.

Agree

Looking better for inland areas compared to earlier in the week. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

NWS decided to leave Suffolk county out of the WWA 

[Tatamy]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Looking better for inland areas compared to earlier in the week. 

Dew points out here have been in the single digits since the middle of yesterday evening.  This very cold and very dry airmass will be an important player in precip start times, qpf, and ratios especially north and west of the city.  

[HeadInTheClouds]

GFS caved to the mesos with low closer to coast and more qpf inland. 

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

GFS caved to the mesos with low closer to coast and more qpf inland. 

 

Any wobble can have a huge effect 

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

GFS caved to the mesos with low closer to coast and more qpf inland. 

 

The RGEM and even the ICON have had virtual ownership of this event for days.  The performance of the GFS as relates to the event has been subpar at best.

[psv88]

11 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

NWS decided to leave Suffolk county out of the WWA 

 NW Suffolk should be in WWA in my opinion but the criteria is 3” of snow so I get it. 

[Northof78]

GFS/EURO horrible with this storm compares with NAM/RGEM, GFS basically has a coastal hugger at this point with significant precip...borderline warning storm for just inland