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Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)


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  On 1/15/2024 at 3:03 PM, SI Mailman said:


.9 before midnight and another .9 after

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Good point.  .8 before midnight and 1.0 afterwards and we see headlines about the snow drought ending.  The exact same snowfall starting a few minutes earlier and the headlines are the opposite.  Where'd they put that old face palm emoji?

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I think this could be a bit of an overperformer just based on precedent. I've seen many times with these smaller events when the models beef up a bit at the last minute especially in a widespread event like this and the higher end totals verify. Of course there's a ceiling to this but I wouldn't be surprised to see some 4-5" totals somewhere.

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  On 1/15/2024 at 3:08 PM, Stormlover74 said:

That would suck but isn't impossible

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for all the noise around Central Park measurements, they essentially got no snow last winter. A tenth up or down, you never looked out and saw white ground in Central Park last winter. To me that makes the record good enough.

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Given the cold BL air mass (even if midlevels warm a bit), the threat of a glaze of ice should be taken seriously. Even a small glaze of ice can snarl traffic and sidewalks. I am not saying that this will be an ice storm, but, with how cold the BL will be, I would say a glaze of ice may be more noteworthy than normal. 

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  On 1/15/2024 at 3:32 PM, MJO812 said:

Agree

Looking better for inland areas compared to earlier in the week. 

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Dew points out here have been in the single digits since the middle of yesterday evening.  This very cold and very dry airmass will be an important player in precip start times, qpf, and ratios especially north and west of the city.  

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