Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[Wannabehippie]

  On 1/14/2024 at 1:24 AM, MJO812 said:

Uh ? The trend is shifting west slightly 

Expand  

The trend this winter has been no snow for NYC.

[MJO812]

  On 1/14/2024 at 1:29 AM, Wannabehippie said:

The trend this winter has been no snow for NYC.

Expand  

So the models are wrong with 1-3 for the coast and maybe more if it comes west? 

Your posts doesn't even make any sense .

[MJO812]

Sref

[SBUWX23]

One thing no one has mentioned: Its gonna be COLD tomorrow night and probably will struggle to get above freezing Monday. It should help with the "it wont stick during the day" concerns. 

[MJO812]

  On 1/14/2024 at 1:41 AM, SBUWX23 said:

One thing no one has mentioned: Its gonna be COLD tomorrow night and probably will struggle to get above freezing Monday. It should help with the "it wont stick during the day" concerns. 

Expand  

Seriously

People think it's late February with the sun angle issues.

[North and West]

  On 1/14/2024 at 1:41 AM, SBUWX23 said:

One thing no one has mentioned: Its gonna be COLD tomorrow night and probably will struggle to get above freezing Monday. It should help with the "it wont stick during the day" concerns. 

sun angle


.

[jm1220]

  On 1/14/2024 at 1:25 AM, Allsnow said:

 

The mean is highest for LI and Southeast Mass 

 

 

Expand  

1-3” will still be a really nice event compared to what we’ve had and that’s what the ensemble means show but it seems that if it gets more amped and therefore stronger, it will introduce more warm air. Hopefully I’m wrong but that’s what the setup seems to favor. I’m totally fine with the 1-3” and hopefully it works out with cold air coming in behind it, and something stronger can set up for 1/20 before we switch to mild again. 

[jm1220]

  On 1/14/2024 at 1:45 AM, North and West said:

sun angle


.

Expand  

In mid January? LOL. 

[MJO812]

Nam coming in amplified

[mannynyc]

[shadowsintherain]

  On 1/14/2024 at 2:21 AM, MJO812 said:

Nam coming in amplified

No way! Not the NAM! lol ;-)


.

[Irish]

  On 1/14/2024 at 2:21 AM, MJO812 said:

Nam coming in amplified

Expand  

 

  On 1/14/2024 at 2:33 AM, shadowsintherain said:

No way! Not the NAM! lol ;-)


.

Expand  

It came in Namplified. 

[SBUWX23]

Its the NAM, but we do not want the mid level thermal profile it depicts.

[SBUWX23]

  On 1/14/2024 at 2:58 AM, SBUWX23 said:

Its the NAM, but we do not want the mid level thermal profile it depicts.

Expand  

Same with the rgem. 

[MJO812]

  On 1/14/2024 at 3:09 AM, SBUWX23 said:

Same with the rgem. 

Expand  

Mesos vs globals

[kingbaus]

I missed out are we getting a SECS now?????

[Irish]

And back to getting an inch again.

[Stormlover74]

  On 1/14/2024 at 3:12 AM, kingbaus said:

I missed out are we getting a SECS now?????

Expand  

Who? Where?

[Roger Smith]

GFS looks like 1.5 to 3.0 in w temps in 20s. 

[mannynyc]

lol

[MJO812]

Cmc is nice 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Still looking 1-3/2-4 type event. 

[SBUWX23]

The GFS is just not developing precip well with the jet NW of the low like the CMC/RGEM/NAM are doing. 

[SBUWX23]

  On 1/14/2024 at 4:06 AM, SBUWX23 said:

The GFS is just not developing precip well with the jet NW of the low like the CMC/RGEM/NAM are doing. 

Expand  

Its also still weaker compared to the other solutions. I think the ceiling here is a 2-4 event given the progressive nature and also this not being a strong storm. Right now I would play it conservation though and say 1-2 is more likely and it still could be 1 or less. 

[MJO812]

  On 1/14/2024 at 4:05 AM, HeadInTheClouds said:

Still looking 1-3/2-4 type event. 

Expand  

Maybe more

[MJO812]

Gefs west

[wishcast_hater]

What a disappointment.  The Midwest gets slammed twice and we cutters and now next to nothing.

[HeadInTheClouds]

  On 1/14/2024 at 4:19 AM, wishcast_hater said:

What a disappointment.  The Midwest gets slammed twice and we cutters and now next to nothing.

Expand  

We just got a foot in Dutchess county last weekend. I'll take the 2-4 or whatever it is. 

[wishcast_hater]

  On 1/14/2024 at 4:21 AM, HeadInTheClouds said:

We just got a foot in Dutchess county last weekend. I'll take the 2-4 or whatever it is. 

Expand  

Sorry, I am greedy. At the very least I would have liked out snowpack to have remained for several days and add more to it. We have been waiting for colder weather all season and now its here and we get suppression or strung out storms. SMH.

[mannynyc]

  On 1/14/2024 at 4:18 AM, MJO812 said:

Gefs west

Expand  

So much potential here that will almost surely go to waste