Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[MJO812]

Just now, snowman19 said:

After last winter and so far this winter in the NYC metro area……Take the 1-2 inches and run

Wow I agree with you

[wilsonvoid1]

Mean is 1-2…
 
Looks solid for a light event 

TY sir.

Tony


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[White Gorilla]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow I agree with you

You know things are really desperate when you see MJO agree with Snowman.. Wow.  I screen shot that for my records.  

[SnoSki14]

El Ninos winters don't start til February. 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After last winter and so far this winter in the NYC metro area……Take the 1-2 inches and run

But because of bookkeeping, we actually had a better storm than this last winter didn't we? Almost two inches, but it was divided between two days?

 

[MJO812]

Nam caves

Wow shocking 

[coastalplainsnowman]

21 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

You know things are really desperate when you see MJO agree with Snowman.. Wow.  I screen shot that for my records.  

I just checked the temperature from the reporting station at Hell Airport (KHLL.)  It's below freezing.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I just checked the temperature from the reporting station at Hell Airport (KHLL.)  It's below freezing.

is this JFK?

[Northof78]

NAM looks really nice for Tuesday...3-5" through hour 84 for entire forum

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

NAM looks really nice for Tuesday...3-5" through hour 84 for entire forum

Trending flat

[HeadInTheClouds]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Trending flat

Huh? It's the long range nam so take FWIW but it did give NYC metro 3-4 inches and was still snowing. 

[cleetussnow]

Nam looked good. So what its the nam?  Looks good and its the nam. Next…

[MJO812]

Rgem 

[Stormlover74]

21 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Huh? It's the long range nam so take FWIW but it did give NYC metro 3-4 inches and was still snowing. 

But previously it was amped and rainy so it trended flatter which in this case is better

[MJO812]

Icon

[wilsonvoid1]

Icon

but it's all below freezing the entire time so we have that going for us at least!


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[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon

The ICON, RGEM and CMC are all too amped up IMO. The UKMET is a clear outlier. The NAM is total trash, not even worth looking it, it’s already trending towards the EURO/EPS. Nothing has changed in my view, still a 1-2 inch event area wide. The GFS probably comes a bit further west like the EURO the next 2 runs

[Allsnow]

Gfs is stronger with the trailing energy this run 

[wilsonvoid1]

Gfs is stronger with the trailing energy this run 

trending a little better


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[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

trending a little better


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I went from half an inch to an inch

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I went from half an inch to an inch

a 100% increase, this is absolutely amazing!

 

[SBUWX23]

Notable shift NW at valid time 00z Wed with GEFS members compared to the 12z and 06z suite. 

[uofmiami]

Latest from OKX:

[mannynyc]

GEFS looks closer to the Icon
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[vegan_edible]

Just now, mannynyc said:

GEFS looks closer to the Icon
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basically looks like the OP is showing something like members 15/16. the rest of the members are showing something much more robust

[MJO812]

[NJwx85]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Hopefully more warmth for February. I’m about done with this awful winter if the 20th storm misses 

This feels like one of those February’s where we crack 70 degrees and it snows a week later.

[SnowGoose69]

The 1/2017 storm was odd in that a LP which originated off FL managed to come N enough to impact us, nobody had ever seen that before, if we see the same happen again and get a substantial snow event out of it it just adds to the list of odd things we see that we never used to

[North and West]

The ICON, RGEM and CMC are all too amped up IMO. The UKMET is a clear outlier. The NAM is total trash, not even worth looking it, it’s already trending towards the EURO/EPS. Nothing has changed in my view, still a 1-2 inch event area wide. The GFS probably comes a bit further west like the EURO the next 2 runs

Oh man, I was invested in the snowman/MJO good feelings tour, too.


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[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Latest from OKX:

Completely reasonable forecast from Upton