Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Can’t believe some bought into the normally amped up cmc 

Icon and Nam are way too amped also.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Can’t believe some bought into the normally amped up cmc 

IMO nothing supported an amped up coastal hugging/inland running solution for 1/16. Same for 1/20….the risk with that is suppressed and OTS too. The TPV is going to act as a kicker

[MJO812]

Eps slightly west for Tuesday compared to 6z. I'm giving it until 0z Runs tonight to throw in the towel if we don't see any improvements. 

 

Still time to trend 

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Eps slightly west for Tuesday compared to 6z. I'm giving it until 0z Runs tonight to throw in the towel if we don't see any improvements. 

 

Still time to trend 

so for 1-2” you’re throwing in the towel? jesus.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

so for 1-2” you’re throwing in the towel? jesus.

Nope

[MJO812]

Breaking out the SREF

[MJO812]

Got this from the SNE subforum. Nice shift west.

[Allsnow]

EPS closer to the coast for Tuesday evening. We need to see that trend to continue 

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

No offense intended, but please delete all traces that you ever existed in this forum. 

Well, no.  I would advise he sees a good witch doctor or exorcist to scour out the bad  juju.  A lot of people in here rely on voodoo for their weather prognostication so I’m sure someone can refer him to a professional offering those services.  

[donsutherland1]

Overall, things remain on track for a light snow event in the northern Middle Atlantic region and a light to perhaps moderate event in southern New England. The number of EPS members showing a moderate or significant event in New York City has declined overnight. The Graphcast AI solution using the ECMWF also moved into alignment with the emerging consensus for a light event after having consistently shown a moderate/significant event. These developments fit historic experience with the forecast pattern and are consistent with the solutions on some of the higher-skill computer guidance.

 

[MJO812]

Nam is an interior  NY hit

[Allsnow]

Toss the nams at this range 

[NEG NAO]

Can't make this stuff up - just posting for laughs and giggles

[cleetussnow]

We ain’t tossing nothin yet.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Toss the nams at this range 

It did bring back 2016

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It did bring back 2016

Stop 

[TJW014]

I personally love events like this. Just enough to make everything look pretty outside and coming down at a rate slow enough that the roads don't become a nightmare.

Seems like all we ever get now is either 8 inches or more or 2" of rain. I'd much rather have 10 of these events than just one blockbuster storm all winter.

That all said, little concerned with temps here right along the Shore. If we stay cold, expecting about 2" here.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

I personally love events like this. Just enough to make everything look pretty outside and coming down at a rate slow enough that the roads don't become a nightmare.

Seems like all we ever get now is either 8 inches or more or 2" of rain. I'd much rather have 10 of these events than just one blockbuster storm all winter.

That all said, little concerned with temps here right along the Shore. If we stay cold, expecting about 2" here.

It's amazing how we went from mid 20s and high ratios to trying to squeeze out an inch before it flips to sleet or rain

[MJO812]

Reggie is also amped

[North and West]

Reggie is also amped

The most important question everyone is dying to know is how does this impact MMU?


.

[wdrag]

So the 12z/13 NAM and RGEM have an event.  modest,  bu west of I95 hazardous,  with a band of ice somewhere just west of I95 and decent snowfall ratios and powder I84 corridor.  Let's see what other models say.  Just have to ride this out a while longer but something is coming Tuesday. Not necessarily more than a light event but looks extensive to me. 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

So the 12z/13 NAM and RGEM have an event.  modest,  bu west of I95 hazardous,  with a band of ice somewhere just west of I95 and decent snowfall ratios and powder I84 corridor.  Let's see what other models say.  Just have to ride this out a while longer but something is coming Tuesday. Not necessarily more than a light event but looks extensive to me. 

12Z ICON has an event also

[NJwx85]

You want the NAM to be amped up beyond 36 hours. If it showed snow at the immediate coast right now this threat would be 100% dead instead of 75% dead.

[NJwx85]

Best chances for big storms are on the leading edge of cold, like early next week and then as it departs next weekend. After that get out the shorts and BBQ’s.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Best chances for big storms are on the leading edge of cold, like early this week and then as it departs next weekend. After that get out the shorts and BBQ’s.

for like a week before the Aleutian Low forms, yeah

[weatherpruf]

33 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

I personally love events like this. Just enough to make everything look pretty outside and coming down at a rate slow enough that the roads don't become a nightmare.

Seems like all we ever get now is either 8 inches or more or 2" of rain. I'd much rather have 10 of these events than just one blockbuster storm all winter.

That all said, little concerned with temps here right along the Shore. If we stay cold, expecting about 2" here.

I haven't seen 8 inches here in years.

[milleand]

***Sharing this from Mike Masco***NOT MY POST

EARLY NEXT WEEK STORM STRUGGLES... THINGS THAT ARE HAPPENING.. CAN HAPPEN.. AND WILL HAPPEN
This post is a more meteorological post not watered down to a simple this and that forecast for everyone. 

As I said a day or two ago you have too much going on in the overall pattern to expect the models to latch on and forecast early next week properly. You have tremendous cold entering the USA (all-time record cold) as well as a major pattern shift w/ a strong NEGATIVE NAO, a blocking pattern for the eastern USA.

The struggle (or reality) in the model is outlined in two black boxes below. 

The first box is over western Canada which is modeled to have a trough in a place I was expected more ridging to be located. This trough knocks down the +PNA ridge forming over the west coast and a key area over Montana.

The Second is over the northern Atlantic. This strong negative coupled with a strong west-based NAO SHOULD create ridging across the western Atlantic thus keeping the storm track closer to the coast. 
This however has not been modeled to reflect the trough (responsible for next weeks storm).

These two area's SHOULD produce a more neutral/negative tilted trough.. However, that is NOT what the GFS/EURO show. The trough is positive which is why you see a late forming storm with trough energy being pulled/sheared apart (when you'd want it to consolidate and form a coastal storm).

Are the models lost in the cold or is this our reality? 

At the very least there will be light snow in #Baltimore #DC #Philadelphia ... Am I totally sold on that solution? .. NO, because of what I would expect to happen based on what has happened in the past! Time will tell.. Need to see a bit more data to be fully satisfied with the end result.

 

@Mikemasco on X

[RU848789]

18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

So the 12z/13 NAM and RGEM have an event.  modest,  bu west of I95 hazardous,  with a band of ice somewhere just west of I95 and decent snowfall ratios and powder I84 corridor.  Let's see what other models say.  Just have to ride this out a while longer but something is coming Tuesday. Not necessarily more than a light event but looks extensive to me. 

I know the NAM is probably beyond its useful range when the precip hits, but it is interesting that the NAM and ICON have the surface low in similar positions Tuesday morning into the afternoon, when most of the precip falls, yet the NAM is much warmer/rainier for 95/coast (and even a fair amount NW of 95).  And the RGEM is between the two.  Any insight on why that is?  TIA.  

[Allsnow]

Gfs closer to The coast 

[cleetussnow]

GFS doesn’t look much different than 6z