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Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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snowman19
snowman19

The Euro is still the best model we have, especially given that it excels during southern branch dominated Ninos. I think that solution is absolutely believable given how fast the southern branch shor

MJO812
MJO812

DT expects the models to trend west this weekend .

MJO812
MJO812

Miss snow

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Irish

Irish

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, jaquanweb said:

it’s just coincidence but since following this forum i have seen a significant snow event i just wanna follow a storm from birth to blizzard 

This guy brought the bad JuJu!!  Off with his head, a sacrifice to the snow gods. 

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted

UKMET looks pretty good too. A little warm for the coast, but that model is bad with thermals as many people have mentioned. It would probably be a 3 to 5 inch deal like the CMC. Everything looks decent tonight except for GFS. Hopefully Euro will look decent later. 

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

UKMET looks pretty good too. A little warm for the coast, but that model is bad with thermals as many people have mentioned. It would probably be a 3 to 5 inch deal like the CMC. Everything looks decent tonight except for GFS. Hopefully Euro will look decent later. 

Gfs just looks so bad but if euro was on board I'd be more willing to ignore it

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs just looks so bad but if euro was on board I'd be more willing to ignore it

12z Euro did give us a light event. I think enough models are on board (and we're only 3 days out now) that an event is looking likely, even if it's just a light event. 

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
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3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro did give us a light event. I think enough models are on board (and we're only 3 days out now) that an event is looking likely, even if it's just a light event. 

Ukie's done by Tuesday morning whereas cmc has most of the day tuesday with light snow so timing is still a bit off

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

The GFS is basically the only snowless run at 00Z...just goes totally coastal dominant, even the 18z Euro did not do that so as of now the chance to end the streak does live on.  If the Euro starts going bone dry even with the WAA then its probably down to 1/20 happening

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
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42 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS is basically the only snowless run at 00Z...just goes totally coastal dominant, even the 18z Euro did not do that so as of now the chance to end the streak does live on.  If the Euro starts going bone dry even with the WAA then its probably down to 1/20 happening

And the Euro didn't go bone dry. Not great but it has light snow Monday night. 1 to 2 inches. As you said, everything is showing snow except for GFS. We're still looking good for at least a light event. 

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And the Euro didn't go bone dry. Not great but it has light snow Monday night. 1 to 2 inches. As you said, everything is showing snow except for GFS. We're still looking good for at least a light event. 

sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS is basically the only snowless run at 00Z...just goes totally coastal dominant, even the 18z Euro did not do that so as of now the chance to end the streak does live on.  If the Euro starts going bone dry even with the WAA then its probably down to 1/20 happening

1/20 is basically a non - event on the EURO

sn10_024h-imp.conus.png

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wdrag

wdrag

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Keep looking and monitoring:  I,   as does WPC (their products) agree with posters... the snow is coming.  RGEM-CMC consistency should be monitored. Axis is variable. Latest RGEM - 06z/13 version, I sort of like. Looks like 1-4" I95 west and has ice near the I95 corridor. NAM seems too warm=north.

I did check the NAM and a banding signal is evident so that contributes to the powdery potential.  

How this plays?  For now, I think this is a powdery interior hazardous modest impact event on previously frozen ground (4P-Sunday-Tuesday) with decent snow ratios, higher than 10 to 1 for the interior (NOT the WET 7 to 1 ratios).  I can see ice or rain for I95 or east of I95 so for myself in NYC CP, I'll stick with for 1-3" by sunrise Wednesday. Confidence a little below average on what happens NYC (but a little above average interior).  I think staying conservative in NYC is best for now and just monitor the modeling... for me I need the GGEM, RGEM on board for this to happen.

fwiw...if interested see January thread for the Sunday cold frontal passage snow squall event that seems to be looming for our NYC suibforum

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