Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[lee59]

36 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

A 698 day snowless streak will do that to you.

Only in Central Park.

[moleson]

4 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Only in Central Park.

Exactly!

[HVSnowLover]

Not sure when the 18z GFS became such an important run. Wait for the 0z runs and the full range of guidance and if there is agreement before determining likely outcomes. I agree if most models are not on board by 0Z tonight the chances of something are a lot lower although still could change even up to around 48 hours out with these type of events.  

[BoulderWX]

17 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Don’t like the depiction from 12z to 18z but still a lot of fluctuations run to run. Let’s just hope this isn’t the start of trend 

[HVSnowLover]

22 minutes ago, lee59 said:

How do people say it is over. Do they have a crystal ball, there is still 2 months left in winter.

There is understandable frustration given what has been experienced for the last year and a half of winter but this storm isn't over and even if it fails winter isn't over.

[kingbaus]

18z euro looks like crap

[SnoSki14]

It's going to snow, stop model hugging ya weenies.

[SnowGoose69]

13 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

18z euro looks like crap

 

Yeah its about as close to no change as you can get, it was better ever so slightly in some areas, worse in others but it likely would not have unfolded much different than 12z

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's going to snow, stop model hugging ya weenies.

That's pretty much where I'm at with this right now.  Could easily be wrong though.  

[kingbaus]

14 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That's pretty much where I'm at with this right now.  Could easily be wrong though.  

I happen to agree with you. Seems like good chunk of these storms amp and go north.

[donsutherland1]

January 16-17, 2024:

The complexity of the situation (which shortwave to emphasize, location and impact of the polar vortex, etc.) continued to play out in poor run-to-run continuing and lack of agreement among the guidance. That could be the case into Sunday before the guidance begins to converge and grow more consistent.

Historic experience with the forecast pattern suggests that a light event would be favored in the northern Mid-Atlantic region with somewhat higher prospects for a moderate event in southern New England. Until the guidance begins to move toward consensus, it makes sense to stick with historic experience rather than riding the model roller coaster from the peaks of certain models at certain cycles to the valleys of other guidance.

The WPC's probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index shows about a 50%-60% probability of a minor impact and a 30% probability of a moderate impact (40% in parts of southern New England). For now, scenarios ranging from a moderate snowfall to little or none remain on the table. There's no need to commit to amounts this early, especially given the complexity of the pattern and resulting uncertainty.

 

[MJO812]

Eps is slightly further east than 12z.

I wonder if the cutter is messing with the models .

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

I happen to agree with you. Seems like good chunk of these storms amp and go north.

The problem is that the models that are flat barely have a storm to bring north

[SnowGoose69]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is slightly further east than 12z.

I wonder if the cutter is messing with the models .

Any time you have two storms tracking in close proximity relatively speaking and one is significantly large or strong there’s a chance you will have some impact on the forecast of the 2nd event so it’s not out of the question at all 

[MJO812]

DT expects the models to trend west this weekend .

[Irish]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

DT expects the models to trend west this weekend .

Who's DT?  Cause I respect Daryll Talley, Demaryius Thomas, and Derrick Thomas but didn't know any were meteorologists. 

[cleetussnow]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

DT expects the models to trend west this weekend .

Sorry to slap you with a weenie there, but it was warranted.

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

The problem is that the models that are flat barely have a storm to bring north

Actually, not true, as they have plenty of precip (large areas of 0.6-1.2" of QPF) 150+ miles SE of the coast.  Just need to move it NW...

 

[Rjay]

Agee with it all but we know how this convo ends lol.  So it's hidden now. 

[Franklin0529]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

 

Can't even get the nam onboard. I'm afraid this one is gonna be a nothing burger

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Can't even get the nam onboard. I'm afraid this one is gonna be a nothing burger

Uh the nam is onboard. In fact it looks to be rather close to the coast at hr 84

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Can't even get the nam onboard. I'm afraid this one is gonna be a nothing burger

The nam is not a nothing burger but it's the long range nam so who knows. 

[SBUWX23]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

DT expects the models to trend west this weekend .

JB says the NAM looks good

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Can't even get the nam onboard. I'm afraid this one is gonna be a nothing burger

What

It's not a nothing burger

[MJO812]

Rgem is amped

[winterwx21]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What

It's not a nothing burger

Yep NAM has light snow for us monday night (an inch or so) and then more precip on Tuesday. Borderline temps on Tuesday but it's long range NAM. At least NAM is showing an event. 

[kat5hurricane]

Throwing in the towel on a storm 4-5 days from now based on 18z runs and the nam is the peak of Weenieism. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

DT expects the models to trend west this weekend .

Wow 10 weenies for this post.

I'm going to weenie everyone who gave me a weenie if this storm does come west.

[guinness77]

The one thing I (think) I learned in all those years I lurked and read was that the money got earned on the 0z and 12z models and the 6z and 18z models were “clown” models. Am I wrong about that? In a nutshell. 

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow 10 weenies for this post.

I'm going to weenie everyone who gave me a weenie if this storm does come west.

Deal.