Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

King euro 

Euro and eps came west

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I don't know how you could call that a large move towards the GFS. It was a move towards the old GFS but still just a glancing blow. Lets see what 00z has to say.

seriously, i have my fingers crossed for the 0z models 

[kingbaus]

I still think it's a bit too early to give up. Give it another 48 hours.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, vegan_edible said:

seriously, i have my fingers crossed for the 0z models 

We do still have several models onboard. Maybe not the models we want but I'm not giving up yet

[NJwx85]

The 18z NAM was pretty flat at 84 hours. It's impossible to know what would have happened since I'm pretty sure the DGEX doesn't exist anymore. Anyway, typically in these situations you want to see the long range NAM super amped up because of its known bias for being over amplified with respect to coastal storms.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, kingbaus said:

I still think it's a bit too early to give up. Give it another 48 hours.

Yep 

Let the cutter pass first

[NJwx85]

If we do end up missing out on this one it doesn't mean there won't be another one following close behind it. I recall that a few days before the Boxing Day blizzard we narrowly missed getting slammed by a miller A. Sometimes these help to reinforce the pattern. 

It will be cold for part of next week here but nothing like the Plains.

[the_other_guy]

shame if it doesn’t work. last week of the month looks quite warm. If this or 20th dont work you go into Feb with a goose egg in CPK.

 

History is not kind at that point. Its only 1/12 but its getting late real early past next week…

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

If we can’t get a snow storm between Monday and the 20/21st winters ovaaaa rovaaaa

[NJwx85]

To be fair, the GFS does try and do some whacky elongated last minute phase.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the GEM and GFS came in stronger today with the TPV suppression near James Bay like the Euro has been showing. 

Hopefully it nails the 20th as well 

[kingbaus]

20th looks like a dud so far. But over a week away.

[SnowGoose69]

This thing is unlikely to heart attack us anyway, this will be a slow death in all likelihood if we do totally lose it.  Probably won't be til 36-48 til we can declare it dead due to the many moving parts 

[North and West]

Waive bye bye

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[HeadInTheClouds]

13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 18z NAM was pretty flat at 84 hours. It's impossible to know what would have happened since I'm pretty sure the DGEX doesn't exist anymore. Anyway, typically in these situations you want to see the long range NAM super amped up because of its known bias for being over amplified with respect to coastal storms.

The 18z RGEM would have been a nice hit and the 18z Icon was pretty good but they are 18z's of course so saying it's over after a bad 18z GFS run 4 days out run with a known south and east bias is a little premature. 

[wilsonvoid1]

This thing is unlikely to heart attack us anyway, this will be a slow death in all likelihood if we do totally lose it.  Probably won't be til 36-48 til we can declare it dead due to the many moving parts 

i honestly have no clue what you say half the time. Try to slow down or maybe i'm just not smart


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[North and West]

i honestly have no clue what you say half the time. Try to slow down or maybe i'm just not smart


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We’re all in the Ayahuasca hut at the moment


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[MegaMike]

20 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Trusted models?  AI could be a good thing, especially when you can adjust for errors in the program say at day 3 and correct for biases.  Might improve long range patterns?  I would think the AI would correct for known biases, otherwise, why use AI?  I would think no model would handle an anomalous event well?  Or perhaps instead of AI, have human intervention adjusting at say, day 3 in a long range model to correct for a suspected error?

You don't think our modeling systems are trusted? Most high-resolution modeling systems perform well within 12 hours (especially once a disturbance is properly assimilated). Additionally, most global models perform reasonably well within 4 days at the synoptic level.

If you expect complete accuracy for moisture/precipitation fields, you (not you specifically, just in general) don't understand the limitations of NWP... Our initial conditions/data assimilation, boundary conditions, parameterizations, and truncations (dx,dy,dz increments) leads to significant error over time which aren't necessarily related to a modeling system itself. If we could perfectly initialize a modeling system, theoretically, there would be little to no errors post-initialization. You can't say the same thing about an AI model since it's likely trained on forcing variables such as temperature/moisture (at the surface and aloft) and is not simulated using governing equations and fundamental laws which the atmosphere adheres to.

I wrote, 'AI can be used to improve the accuracy of NWP output that have a known, and predictable bias...' so if we used AI to correct singular fields prior to initialization and while a modeling system is running, sure... It will likely improve the accuracy of NWP.

Bottom line; use AI to assist NWP or to correct fields with known biases. At this time, I don't trust atmospheric, AI models.

[kingbaus]

To be fair the Euro is a garbage model too. It was the first to show it then boom. We'll see what happens over the weekend.

[ILoveWinter]

This much pessimism after a bad run by one model at 18z 4 days out from the event? Way too early for that! (or being overly optimistic for that matter)

[cleetussnow]

3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

This much pessimism after a bad run by one model at 18z 4 days out from the event? Way too early for that! (or being overly optimistic for that matter)

It is more than 1 run of 1 model and a trend may be emerging but there is still a spread 4 days out,  so too early to call it. 

[NEG NAO]

all the weeniesshowed up for the happy hour tonight

[the_other_guy]

6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

It is more than 1 run of 1 model and a trend may be emerging but there is still a spread 4 days out,  so too early to call it. 

Its more than that. I think most of us know something has to click in the next 7-10 days or its over. No one wants to say it yet, but in our gut, and looking at extended forecasts, we could see that.

 

And when I say it’s over, I don’t mean no snowfall for the winter but I mean any chance of a normal winter. this week, this cold snap is pivotal. 

[Yanksfan]

17 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

This much pessimism after a bad run by one model at 18z 4 days out from the event? Way too early for that! (or being overly optimistic for that matter)

A 698 day snowless streak will do that to you.

[nycwinter]

winters we had as children especially us older folks are from a bygone era...

[HeadInTheClouds]

7 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

winters we had as children especially us older folks are from a bygone era...

Yes. I remember walking to school in snowstorms and freezing cold backwards and uphill both ways. 

[mannynyc]

Model hugging does no one any good. What the GFS shows will not be the final solution. Doesn't mean a huge snow storm is likely but it also doesn't mean we should stop tracking.

[rclab]

41 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

all the weeniesshowed up for the happy hour tonight

At least we rode in comfort. As always …..

 

[lee59]

How do people say it is over. Do they have a crystal ball, there is still 2 months left in winter.

[mannynyc]