Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Outside the euro every model Gives nyc accumulation next week 

Yes even the warm ukie is still a few inches for NYC. Every model except Euro threatens the Central Park snow drought.  

[RU848789]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie

UK good hit just NW of 95 and decent hit for 95 (with some sleet/rain probably), but mostly rain for the coast, as temps start out below 32F, quickly go over freezing and don't go below 32F again for 95 and SE of there until after the precip shuts off.  Most of the precip is done by 1 pm Tues.  Still a decent winter storm signal.  

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

One thing to note is the UKIE nailed this Midwest event from 4 days out...it tends to run hot and cold for months at a time...this is a largely different setup in a different part of the country but its worth noting its been the most amped now for probably 4-5 consecutive runs 

[HVSnowLover]

13 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

UK good hit just NW of 95 and decent hit for 95 (with some sleet/rain probably), but mostly rain for the coast, as temps start out below 32F, quickly go over freezing and don't go below 32F again for 95 and SE of there until after the precip shuts off.  Most of the precip is done by 1 pm Tues.  Still a decent winter storm signal.  

 

 

It has at least 0.1 qpf for CPK with temps in the 20s. That should be enough to get rid of the streak. Given temps it's probably like the old days 2-4 inches I95 corridor changing to sleet and then rain with lower amounts SE of there.

[SBUWX23]

Still too much spread on the GEFSs

 

[mannynyc]

20 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

Still too much spread on the GEFSs

 

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, mannynyc said:

15/20 deliver me some snow… I’ll take that 5 days out. 

[forkyfork]

this is the kind of wave that can easily ramp up at the last minute so i wouldn't want to see any good hits right now imo

[wdrag]

Read the 212A pmdepd.  Interesting comment about EC (almost AI implication) that didn’t run. Unsure if that applies to this.  Will check tonight but I see a pretty good polar overrunning boundary for powdery snow inland.  

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

AI = Artificial Intelligence ?

 

I believe @bluewave has commented on how they’ve integrated AI into the euro. 

[kingbaus]

Euro is running

[kingbaus]

Looking a little bit better

[Allsnow]

Euro will definitely show something this run 

[Allsnow]

Light snow for the area Tuesday morning. Looks like the gfs 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Light snow for the area Tuesday morning. Looks like the gfs 

Definitely where you want it at this point 

[wdrag]

19 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I believe @bluewave has commented on how they’ve integrated AI into the euro. 

Was it aware   - thanks

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Light snow for the area Tuesday morning. Looks like the gfs 

Yep close this run.  Big change from 0z.

[brooklynwx99]

less suppressive over the lakes... more of the vort is hung back. this was a good step

[North and West]

I believe [mention=564]bluewave[/mention] has commented on how they’ve integrated AI into the euro. 

What could go wrong?



.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, North and West said:

What could go wrong?



.

I think the flow is way to progressive and fast for anything more then 1 - 3 inches at this point in the metro

[coastalplainsnowman]

27 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I believe @bluewave has commented on how they’ve integrated AI into the euro. 

Is that anything new?  I know nothing about the inner workings of these models, but generally, aren’t models often driven by the same statistical formulas which drive AI?  I always assumed that was the case.  Maybe it’s a marketing thing, calling it AI now?

[donsutherland1]

37 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I believe @bluewave has commented on how they’ve integrated AI into the euro. 

Several AI models are being run off the ECMWF. I'm not sure if AI has been integrated into the ECMWF itself.

FWIW, here's the 1/12 0z Graphcast (Google AI system) run for 12-hour precipitation (snow isn't part of the test runs) through 120 hours:

[RU848789]

For me, this summarizes the surface trends well, showing the entire precip field moving NW about 150 miles vs. 0Z, bringing the 0.1-0.2" of precip to 95/coast and moving the 1" QPF line NW by ~150 miles, also. Still a ways to go, but the movement weneeded to see. 12Z also looks a little juicier, overall, too. And not that far off from the 12Z GFS precip field.  Just need it to move another 150 miles NW...

 

[Nibor]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Several AI models are being run off the ECMWF. I'm not sure if AI has been integrated into the ECMWF itself.

FWIW, here's the 1/12 0z Graphcast (Google AI system) run for 12-hour precipitation (snow isn't part of the test runs) through 120 hours:

Might be the case they haven’t implemented it into system. 
 

Newsletter from ecmwf if anyone wants to read more about it:

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/163/news/ai-and-machine-learning-ecmwf

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/aifs-blog/2023/ECMWF-unveils-alpha-version-of-new-ML-model

[HVSnowLover]

12Z Euro decent improvement. All 4 major models now have at least 1 inch of snow for CPK by Tuesday.

[MANDA]

The AI modeling did horrible with Lee over the summer.  Several consecutive runs tried to plow a major hurricane into New England.  Eventually they came around to the actual outcome that most of the op models had a few days prior.  Use this AI stuff with caution.

[HVSnowLover]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

For me, this summarizes the surface trends well, showing the entire precip field moving NW about 150 miles vs. 0Z, bringing the 0.1-0.2" of precip to 95/coast and moving the 1" QPF line NW by ~150 miles, also. Still a ways to go, but the movement weneeded to see. 12Z also looks a little juicier, overall, too. And not that far off from the 12Z GFS precip field.  Just need it to move another 150 miles NW...

 

All we need is the Ukie and Euro to meet in the middle and most of this subforum will be quite happy.

[wdrag]

6 minutes ago, MANDA said:

The AI modeling did horrible with Lee over the summer.  Several consecutive runs tried to plow a major hurricane into New England.  Eventually they came around to the actual outcome that most of the op models had a few days prior.  Use this AI stuff with caution.

I can only presume AI assisted modeling was tested for improved guidance prior to its implementation.  Recommend staying with WiC and check their afternoon EPD when it comes out

[romba]

26 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Is that anything new?  I know nothing about the inner workings of these models, but generally, aren’t models often driven by the same statistical formulas which drive AI?  I always assumed that was the case.  Maybe it’s a marketing thing, calling it AI now?

Probably using the newer AIs to review the models to pick out tendencies or biases, and then compensating. I'd think that weather is still too complicated/not enough sampling yet for this to be too helpful, but who knows if in a few years this really has an effect.

[NittanyWx]

I suspect the Euro will end up getting sharper with the trough into Texas, which will likely amp any wave early next week in the East a bit more than it's doing currently.

 

See this often in tail end plains events where the Euro suite underdoes everything until very late.