Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[SBUWX23]

Cmc is not a good solution for any of the I95

[MJO812]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:11 AM, Franklin0529 said:

Big?

Expand  

Yes 6 plus is big now

[MJO812]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:11 AM, SBUWX23 said:

Cmc is not a good solution for any of the I95

Expand  

Models are all over the place 

[cleetussnow]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:11 AM, Franklin0529 said:

Big?

Expand  

Prolly lays down 10-12 or so, maybe more.  One run but a good one

[mannynyc]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:12 AM, MJO812 said:

Models are all over the place 

Expand  

All we want at this range is for the models to be showing coastal storms. 

[winterwx21]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:11 AM, SBUWX23 said:

Cmc is not a good solution for any of the I95

Expand  

It has a decent front end thump though before the changeover. 

[mannynyc]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:13 AM, cleetussnow said:

Prolly lays down 10-12 or so, maybe more.  One run but a good one

Expand  

[mannynyc]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:13 AM, winterwx21 said:

It has a decent front end thump though before the changeover. 

Expand  

[SBUWX23]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:13 AM, winterwx21 said:

It has a decent front end thump though before the changeover. 

Expand  

Those snow maps are way overdone based on that solution. It has snow but it is warm for the I95. No sense in discussing further at this point as it's been in the western side of the guidance anyway. 

[MJO812]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:13 AM, winterwx21 said:

It has a decent front end thump though before the changeover. 

Expand  

A few inches for the coast with more inland .

[brooklynwx99]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:15 AM, SBUWX23 said:

Those snow maps are way overdone based on that solution. It has snow but it is warm for the I95. No sense in discussing further at this point as it's been in the western side of the guidance anyway. 

Expand  

CMC is a space cadet right now. it’s still trending towards the other models and has been doing so for two model cycles now

i think it represents the western end of the envelope

[SBUWX23]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:16 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

CMC is a space cadet right now. it’s still trending towards the other models and has been doing for for two model cycles now

Expand  

Agree. And even the western side of the suite ICON shifted much further east tonight.  The 00z gfs is a good solution for many. Don't expect a blockbuster here but could be a welcome site for many. We are overdue to be honest and finally have some pieces on the table that seem favorable. That's all we can hope for now!

[NJwx85]

Late developing Miller A’s are rough. March 2001 comes to mind. They favor New England not NYC.

[winterwx21]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:15 AM, SBUWX23 said:

Those snow maps are way overdone based on that solution. It has snow but it is warm for the I95. No sense in discussing further at this point as it's been in the western side of the guidance anyway. 

Expand  

The timing for accumulation on the CMC would be good since it has the snow overnight into tuesday morning before the changeover, but as you said it's on the western side of guidance anyway. 

[SBUWX23]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:22 AM, NJwx85 said:

Late developing Miller A’s are rough. March 2001 comes to mind. They favor New England not NYC.

Expand  

At this point I think NYC would be thrilled with a 3-6 event knowing we have plenty of time left for more.

[coastalplainsnowman]

On the coast, this far out,  history says that if the R word is being uttered at all, that's big trouble.  5 days out we want to be debating coastal special vs. fish storm, not mix vs. snow.  

While there have been a noteworthy few which trended the other way, even among those rare cases, the forecasts, for coastal folks, almost always trended from snow to nothing, not from 'wintry mix' to snow.

I'm gonna try my best to keep my expectations low on this one til Monday.  Good luck to me with that.

[Roger Smith]

Rain, snow or dry cold ... model consensus? Perhaps by Sunday. 

GFS looks most credible at present range of 120-132h. 6-10" snow potential.  

[brooklynwx99]

new UKMET is a coastal bomb

[SnowGoose69]

UKMET 987 S of central LI at 120...probably a ton of mixing with that solution.  Looks like it goes from Pensacola to there from 96-120

[SBUWX23]

00z GEFS present spread which is expected with some earlier and some later developing lows. All in all the signal is robust enough to watch.

[Franklin0529]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:45 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

new UKMET is a coastal bomb

Expand  

Wow.. what's temps like? Mixing for city an coast?

[SBUWX23]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:45 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

UKMET 987 S of central LI at 120...probably a ton of mixing with that solution.  Looks like it goes from Pensacola to there from 96-120

Expand  

It's east of its 12z counterpart. It's also stronger as it comes up coast which does introduce concern of mixing but looks like 982 low se of mtp that would snow pretty much for all for a time too. So mixing verbatim but also probably a good storm involved either way. 

[SBUWX23]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:49 AM, SBUWX23 said:

It's east of its 12z counterpart. It's also stronger as it comes up coast which does introduce concern of mixing but looks like 982 low se of mtp that would snow pretty much for all for a time too. So mixing verbatim but also probably a good storm involved either way. 

Expand  

 

[Rjay]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:46 AM, Franklin0529 said:

Wow.. what's temps like? Mixing for city an coast?

Expand  

I know yall love your snow maps. Lol. 

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:52 AM, Rjay said:

I know yall love your snow maps. Lol. 

 

 

Expand  

I think we're in a good spot here. signal is growing, cold air is in place, and the overall synoptic pattern is great. finally something to talk about other than the MJO lmao

[Stormlover74]

  On 1/12/2024 at 4:46 AM, Franklin0529 said:

Wow.. what's temps like? Mixing for city an coast?

Expand  

It's a little warm but temps cool after this frame

[brooklynwx99]

UKMET thermals are notoriously bad 

[mannynyc]

[snobal]

things are  looking  good.  getting excited

[rickrd]

NAVGEM. Oh boy