Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

We don't want it too close as that introduces issues aloft and potentially surface. 

Just inside the BM would be fine.

[Franklin0529]

Gefs looks great 

[Franklin0529]

 

[Allsnow]

 

[LawdogGRNJ]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

You must be one of the most negative posters on here. Always bringing up worst case for it not to snow, always looking forward to “torches”. It’s tiring.


.

Given your username, I'd expect you to be his greatest champion...lol

[Wannabehippie]

I need Tuesday event to be delayed, or be a minor event so I can get back in to LGA from Florida. 

[wdrag]

Quick check: I think the 12z EC op went off course and will be back.

 

ALL ensembles have 1-2" snow for our entire subforum Tue-Tue night.  Now time to hone in. I expect the EC to  come back and am hoping the GGEM becomes steady heaviest axis I95 ish,  cyclically. 

For now, good enough! A wintry event is coming for the entire NYC subforum... whether its beginning or end, or the entire event.   You saw WPC had a 30-49% chance of >1/4" melted frozen entire megalopolis Tue-Tue night (stretches from DC to Nova Scotia) and I saw the prev update D3-7 hazard post earlier in this thread. 

 

I probably wont say much more except am hoping the 18z EPS 24 hr qpf increases again ending 138 hours.

[psv88]

I feel good about this one. 

[kingbaus]

Did the 18z euro come out yet?

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

You must be one of the most negative posters on here. Always bringing up worst case for it not to snow, always looking forward to “torches”. It’s tiring.


.

This is accurate. Also you don't need a strong low to get a lot of precip. 

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

Did the 18z euro come out yet?

Only runs till hr 90. Looks like it would be better then earlier. Eps comes out at 8pm I believe which runs to hr 144

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Whether you want to read it or not (put him on Ignore if you don’t want to read it), he hasn’t been wrong. He might be right for the wrong reason and he picks too many fights but there is some analysis/reasoning behind what he says. 

I'll never forget how enthusiastic he was about January 2016 (although it didn't affect his area nearly as much as it affected us down here), but he called that storm moving north to give NYC an HECS and that's exactly what happened.

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'll never forget how enthusiastic he was about January 2016 (although it didn't affect his area nearly as much as it affected us down here), but he called that storm moving north to give NYC an HECS and that's exactly what happened.

So once in 8 years. 

[donsutherland1]

The guidance is still in its early stages regarding the potential January 16-17 snow event. The 12z ECMWF showed a complete miss to the south and east, but so far that's an outlier. Historic experience with the forecast teleconnections would favor a light event in the northern Mid-Atlantic region and potentially a light or moderate event in southern New England. There was a single case during the forecast teleconnections that saw a major event: the historic January 1996 blizzard.

EPS and NBE Outcomes:

The 1/12 0z Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index:

The situation remains complex. However, the guidance should begin to converge on a solution over the next several days.

 

[Tatamy]

39 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

Did the 18z euro come out yet?

18z EPS came out- nice look for the area.

[Tatamy]

FWIW the 18z GEFS has decided it wants in on this event.  Up to now the model has been decidedly uninterested in this.  With the 18z run 15/20 members (from the COD website) are calling for at least 2” across the area.  7/20 members are calling for 6” or more.  This data does incorporate 10:1 ratios however if you look at the soundings I think this can be a safe number across much of the area.  The ensemble mean is 4-6”.

[mannynyc]

GEFS looks nice

[WestBabylonWeather]

Finally going to snow. 

[mannynyc]

EPS

GEFS

[Franklin0529]

Looks like gfs gonna be se of earlier todays runs 

[Franklin0529]

Looks similar to Euro 

[SBUWX23]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Looks similar to Euro 

It may just be slower to evolve

[mannynyc]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Looks similar to Euro 

Nope, just develops the storm later

[mannynyc]

[mannynyc]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

That is for sure SE.  Comfortably gets some snow into the metro. more solutions to come.

[MJO812]

Big snowstorm on the gfs

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

I deleted my post after that frame showed on ttb

[winterwx21]

CMC is snow to mix to rain for monday night into tuesday. Looks like a pretty good hit of snow before the changeover. 

[cleetussnow]

Great run for the metros

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big snowstorm on the gfs

Big?